Member Info for redwineday

The RNS is we need to see is Zama sold for 500m!

Post Zama at say 300m after tax with current FCF levels PMO would be looking to refinance 1.5bn max. Surely not so hard for Lazard to arrange at a reasonable coupon?

Deutsche Bank. Hilarious. Worst managed and effectively bust bank scamming other FCF generating businesses. Oh well.....life in the swamp...

I hope Lazard are good.

Chesh - check out the PMO board on ii

They are doing more than hedging a bet. If they are, is as reported, pushing for an equity raise, they are manipulating their position to other shareholders disadvantage. I doubt this in of itself is illegal but not declaring their position is. I would say its acting on inside info but no doubt FCA would defer. Anyway I agree that now its in the open it gives other market participants and the press a good opportunity to make them sweat.

Doesn't' the market see SL as a negative atm? If they were to announce we put it on the back burner till financing conditions improve the SP would likely go up. Answer to this is the farm down, but if they have no takers they won't/can't do it anyway. So isn't SL neutral at worst to SP?

I think their ability to force an equity placing is in the bin. PMO cashflow inc debt pay down can generate a refinancing. Question is the rate.

Agree, this disclosure is clear market manipulation aimed at depressing the SP.

PMO should also be all over this not only with the FCA but with the media (they can do this discreetly) publicising what's been going on here. Best chance for us to gain is of the market smells ARCMs blood in the water.

TD needs to step up here and act to protect PMO and his investors.

Other thing to note here is if you strip out the ARCM short then the remaining short interest level is in quite low. Bar ARCM the view on PMO has been improving.

This could go 2 ways. IMO

Given the sheer size of this short other HFs pile in on the back of ARCM and like a pack of hyenas to seek destabilise the SP simply by the weight of shorting. Not untypical behaviour!

Or ARCM have to start to unwind their position and other HF pile in long seeking the mother of all bear squeezes (mini Porsche VW story). We shouldn’t bet on this as a cert. ARCM have already shown the size of their balls by a, taking such a monumental short in the first place and b, not realising what must have been a big profit opportunity earlier in the year when the SP got to 106. OTH they might be sitting looking back on that now thinking what the **** were we thinking!

The likelihood of either of these happening will surely be the news flow over the next few weeks. OP, Zama, FY results, Catcher reserves upgrade and signalling on refinancing. City drums will be beating on this as the players try to figure out which way it will go, then there could be a stampede.

Premier can do a lot to help themselves here and I sincerely hope they are locked in a room with their advisors working out how to stuff this ‘investors’.

In my view the risk reward on PMO just go a lot higher. Who feels lucky!

Looks like they are in the doo doo

https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/DEPP/6/6.pdf

of course my knowledge on is this is why i'm posting on here and not working for GS!!

cfds not cads...

I guess the reason GS keep issuing the TR1's is that the cfds are being adjusted based on the HF exposure to the SP. You are right though the transaction costs must be high and GS will be charging based on the risk in the opposite side. I think they will not be long on the share but using the cads to manage the risk?

BTW at the risk of stating the bleedin obvious, this is why PMO's only priority should be to get the debt down and renegotiate a new lending package asap. Get these leaches of their backs.

I remember Richard Rose making a remark in the last call about not understanding why the share price was where it is. He is the CFO ffs. If he doesn't understand this, or know who is shorting his stock, then PMO needs a new CFO.

I think its simple - no? Buy the debt, buy the call at the same time and then use the debt as leverage (greenmail) to drive the SP down.

They are earning 2.1m per month on the coupon. I don't know (does anyone?) how long they have owned the debt, but the started building the short position in 2017, so lets say 2 years assuming they started buying both at the same time. Means they have earned around 50m on the coupon. On the ii board the poster lots_of_sense (thank you) has calculated that they are down 32m with the SP at 92p. So atm they are still up substantially.
However with 1.4m for every 1p move they will be feeling the need to do something. They could find themselves with a big problem ;-)

Wouldn’t be surprised if GS are thinking about how they can use the fact this has become public to squeeze their client. Dog eat dog world....

They have borrowed 140m shares. Every 1p move against them costs them 1.4m plus ongoing GS fees for the constant dealing on the CFDs.

this is either multi bagger over 1 year time frame or bust, take your pick

We should have some news over the next few weeks. Petra's latest tender finishing this week. Maybe some leaks or comments on prices. New chairman to be appointed before year end. The latter is quite significant I think.

1. Can they find a quality person and get it done before their self imposed deadline? A failure to do this would be a negative signal.

2. What will this persons background be, finance guy or operator. Will be a clue to ii thinking around Petra since they will have been sounded out over the appointment. Will it be someone who can work on an exit or sale or will it be someone who has experience in developing turnarounds. So we should see a clue to the longevity of Petra as an independent or long haul turnaround.