Member Info for redwineday

So if I read it correctly Duffy has the opportunity if he rings all the bells in his FY20 metrics to collect 2.1m shares at a vesting price of 17.6p in 2 years. Seems fair and lets hope he makes a mint!

I hope you are right! Thing is getting the message to the market to release that value in a reasonable timeframe. I still think that more communication would be no bad thing if the management team are confident of their strategy.

What does it say it you Shakey?

But with less than 10 trades a day and no news comms we could all be waiting a while.

I thought the same but then asked myself why would 2 investors want to own 100% of an E&P. They need an exit and at a higher price than this. Another clue /question might be why no CEO appointment? Although its easy to believe something may be going on in the background perhaps for both of them the current price is just to low for them to exit and they are hanging on like us.

Appreciate the last one was all BS but now its gone in completely the other way.

CEO and any PR MIA. All equals zero interest from the market. BoD should be asking themselves why no one wants this stock....

Thanks, missed this.

Shows how edgy this is. SP can swing massively on what is effectively no new news.

Not sure we know that do we? M&G could have been buying at the same time.

Can't buy at less than 8p. Pesky MM's

Tone was flat. My concern was thee was a tumbleweed moment when he was asked about FCF positive in H1. Seemed to me he wasn't willing to say yes to that, although to be be fair he didn't say no either. Just seemed very hesitant and I would have thought they already know the answer to that question.

Typical IC. Stable door...Take it as a buy signal!

What I didn't like the sound of today in the call was the hesitancy from Duffy when questioned if they would be FCF positive in H1. It sounded non committal at best. I mentioned in an earlier post that if he cant control what he can control, his costs and production then all this share becomes is a punt on diamond prices. Given HK, trade disputes and so on that makes me feel rather uncomfortable.

Can't see a takeover given the low float unless it's one of the shareholders ready to take it private, could be this and then the work to keep the price down makes sense. It would also explain the very low level of communication coming from the company. CEO is invisible.Something odd about the whole thing though.

18k worth of trades market cap drops by 1.5m. Go figure....

On potential takeovers I do wonder if Rio would be looking at Petra. They have said they intend to stay in the diamond mining business after Argyle closes but they will be no bigger than Petra in terms of production at that point. By buying Petra they would replace 30% of what they lose at Argyle but with a far higher price point and improving margin. Couple that with them being able to refinance and slash the borrowing cost it looks to me like a 'why wouldn't you'. Cant believe bankers aren't pitching these ideas to them as we speak.

That then takes us on the what would Petra be worth.

If you assume Petra can generate 70m FCF today say plus 20m conservatively in big stones, plus 2022 opex saving (banker for someone like Rio to generate), plus 25m saved in financing you get to around 160m conservatively at todays prices (I put no numerical value on the likelyhood they would be higher in 2022 after Argyle closes, stock clears and higher demand). 5x forward earnings 900m less the debt gives you 400m ish or 45 p a share. Even if you knock off 30% for my dodgy arithmetic its still got to be worth around 30p a share to them or someone else.

All a bit fag packet I know but it does illustrate I think how undervalued this share is vs its medium term potential. I cant see it staying independent for long.

Agree with you s far as the upsides are concerned. Downsides are not in their control though (Trump, China etc etc). Petra also need some luck on this as do many others before we ever to the multi bagger some of ya here believe is possible.

I'm hoping for bland. I'd be really disappointed if there were any dramas in the Q1 numbers and would take that as a strongly negative signal. Shorts would enter en masse.

Duffy should be in steady as she goes mode until he has visibility of improving costs, mix or some other FCF positive impacting event (big stones). He needs to give himself space to influence the things he can control. If he is not able to do that then there is a a problem.

So bland is would be good!

I can't make my mind up whether you are a troll or a muppet.

For those that are in this for a longer period or are sitting at higher entry points (me for example) I think there are reasons for some positivity. A few months ago PMO would have been down 5 or 6 points on days like this. Volatility to the downside seems to be easing a bit. My take out from this is that PMO is normalising somewhat Vs to peer group. Means that when some good news hits we should be able to rise and start from a new base.

Or maybe I am just punch drunk....