Member Info for RedSparrow7

The very quick answer to this is that the USA and UK are the main proponents of Keynesian economic policy, which, amongst many other things, sees the gold standard as a barbarous relic. Hence, gold has no role to play as 'money' as described by Keynes. It's just a commodity, such as copper - many would argue that copper is the more useful. Therefore, to start buying gold now would be an admission of defeat and that the politicians have got it wrong. It is very rare for a politician to admit they are wrong - you may have noticed.
It's also important to consider that both the USA and UK have not experienced hyperinflation - unlike Germany (which holds a lot of gold now). Empire's end with deflationary busts - Britain's started during the American civil war; the Empire's currencies were linked to the pound (even used the pound in most cases) and the pound rose in value causing deflation in the Empire and a rise in separatist movements. Then Germany formed and competed directly with Britain, and war saw us off very quickly. For the US, the dollar will ultimately rise and cause massive deflation in the world, eventually resulting in the decline of the US and rise of China.
So, we are ultimately looking at a huge deflationary bust coming early in the next decade - according to MA. But, for now, we have an inflationary wave due to shortages - not massive demand - which should be good for gold and commodities in general. As ever, it is timing and guessing what the manipulators will do next that matters. Ideally, we will be wanting to hold physical cash when the deflation comes. A government cryptocurrency may make that impossible, but I read this week that Sunak said he will not do away with cash. Then why bother with a cryptocurrency at all? - I don't trust him one inch. So, if there is a cryptocurrency only, it could make sense to hold gold even in the deflationary bust. At least you will have something at the end instead of a government helping itself from your crypto account.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/ecm/the-sixth-wave-2032/

Now, wasn't that more interesting than writing about cars, apple trees and badgers?

I think the US debt ceiling is imaginary, or so the amount of US debt would imply; It's a bit like my ever owning an e-Type Jag or Lotus Elan!

Well, now. In $US terms, gold reached just under $1920 in Sept 2011 (I think). It broke that level last August to reach $2075-ish, but couldn't hold it. Then it tried to break that $1920 level in June this year and got a slap. Are we about to have a third try to break that $1920 barrier? If you believe in Eliott Waves, in £ terms we are in a wave 3 uptrend now. I have no idea if that is true, but perhaps those whot were quoting Buffett last week, and saying that gold was boring, might just have been on to something. I hope this is not a false dawn.

Thank you for the information Mr Tibbles.
There is a lady who lives in a nearby village who belongs to animal welfare/ anti-hunting organisations (the farmers hate her) whom I informed on Tuesday morning about the incident. So it is in hand.

Hi Mr Tibbles
I woke up about 3am on Monday owing to a load of cars revving along a road near to where I live - about 300 yards away. The next thing was the hounds from a local hunt, started barking and going wild in their kennel which is just up the road. I think the people in the cars were badger baiters who threw the dead badgers to the hounds. We get all kinds of illegal blood sports around here - hare coursing, badger baiting and dog fighting. It's one of the things I don't like about living in the countryside. I try to look after the wildlife, and some others kill it. It's just the world, I suppose.

I love the way the report mentions the 'giant' Sukari deposits. I hope we will not have to experience any cheeky bids in the near future.
Well, the gold price was forecast to be volatile for the first part of this year, and tediously boring for the second part of this year. Forecast correct so far. In fact, it's so boring that Goldgnome appears to have burst out in song. 'Oh what a lovely mine.'

Buffett had always been inclined to ridicule people who invested in gold. Once I learned he had bought Barrick shares, I should have taken it as a contrarian indicator. To some extent, I did. At least I have bought my shares at much reduced prices from the top. I'm still down on all, though. Centamin's are quite good in comparison.
I think Buffett also messed Tesco up to some extent. I haven't owned those for many years - sold in September 2014, 229p.

I updated my share price chart today, and found my gold, silver and platinum mining shares were all badly down - one as much as 40% (NYSE: PLG). They have all been hugely positive in times past. Do I care? No. And this is the reason why:
https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/

Most people do not realize that, in Britain, gold has been in a secular bull market since the 4th August 1914. For well over 100 years we have been taxed just for holding our money. And that secular bull markey isn't over yet. The best is yet to come. So a few pence off the Centamin price and a few pessimists mean nothing in the grand scheme of things. In a few years' time, gold miners will be the new Facebook.

Slowly, slowly does it, I think. Thanks for the link Mr B.
The West is becoming ever more draconian towards its people, in the time honoured fashion of falling empires. We have no statesmen today who have the necessary gravitas to give an opposing view and be listened to and respected by the people. Revolution in France starting 23/24 September this year? That'll raise the price of gold, but I'd rather we got that rise without the conflict.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/is-a-revolution-coming/

I have spent a lovely afternoon in the garden, and shall sit in the deckchair outside tonight and see if I can catch a glimpse of the Perseid meteor shower. It should be fairly cloud free.
If the shops start having difficulty supplying food, I shall have an all apple diet option for this year. The trees are heaving and I've been thinning the apples on the trees every evening during this last week. Discovery's first at the end of August, with William pears and plums. At least I won't get scurvy.
If I didn't read the news, I'd never know the world was in such a mess.

Hi Mr Tibbles
I didn't know about the diagnostic checker information. The car is always looked after by a VW main dealer and it probably explains why the diagnostic check cost £50, providing a fault is found. It was used on the car a little while ago when the indicator came on. There was an ignition fault - misfiring. This time the indicator has come on but the car drives perfectly well. Perhaps they haven't cleared the memory although a similar thing happened a few years ago. The fault then was something to do with the engine breathing system.
I bought my car new in October 2005. It's a Golf Mk V 1.6 FSI and has been excellent over the years. I don't know much about the mechanical side of cars, but I have read that the Golf MkVI is probably the last Golf to have been built to last about 20 years with careful ownership. The new cars are rubbish, apparently; you'll get 5 years of use if you're lucky. I suppose that reflects how cars are purchased today - you tend to effectively lease rather than own one. So you're encouraged to change vehicles on a regular basis.
I bought a car magazine while on holiday the other week because it had an article on the new E10 petrol. Luckily, my car can use it although I'm am tempted to use the E5 super unleaded - at least for half the time. The car runs well on super unleaded; I tend to do about three consecutive fill-ups with super unleaded every 6 months to give the engine a clean.
I had wanted to wait until the new electric cars go more mainstream before buying a new one. I like the idea of the hydrogen fuel cell; I think they would be more like a petrol car in terms of practicality - five minutes to put the liquid hydrogen in and away you go. A battery electric would be no use to me at the moment - recharge time and distance restrictions. If my car starts to break down more frequently, I may need to get a stop gap car in the meantime. I have a double garage and I'll keep my Golf in there for retirement. Perhaps my daughters will inherit a classic in the years to come! Not quite an e-type Jag or Lotus Elan, but a willing horse. I'll even leave them the hollow stainless steel bar in the boot, that my dad gave me to put over the wheel nut wrench to help me leaver off the wheel nuts in case of a puncture. I just hope the Police never pull me over to take a look in the boot. 'There have been a lot of break-ins recently, madam, with what appears to be a metal bar!'
Talking of tyres, I need to get some before the next MOT. Goodyears!
https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/goodyear-tire-ramping/

I'll try to post a rant about Boaris - and all politicians - later today. That should annoy a few scamsters.

Hi Mr Tibbles
Oh dear, the VW parts story sounds a bit ominous. On Thursday, a warning indicator started glowing on my Golf. I'm taking it in on Tuesday morning next week; the receptionist said lots of the mechanics were pinged, so Tuesday was the earliest time. I hope it's not too expensive.

Yes, I read that our Boaris had to be stopped from employing the 'nuclear option' on article 16 over NI. I bet he took a lot of pursuading (not) - tool.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/24/boris-johnson-talked-triggering-nuclear-option-northern-ireland/

The same goes for oil. However, have you seen the price of oil lately? The oil companies shares don't really reflect the price of oil, just as the gold and silver miners don't relate to the gold/silver price. Western governments don't want you to invest in such commodities or companies. Put your money with friend Zuckerberg. Reading Bloomberg this morning, I noticed the demonization of China is being ramped up. Oh, what a train crash this is going to be.
So! Time for some quotes:
'Be greedy when others are fearful; be fearful when others are greedy.'
'The stock market remains an excellent vehicle for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient.'
'Remember that when you sell a share, it is almost certain that a large investment institution will have bought it from you.'
'Hold gold until you are old.'
Well, words to those effects, anyway.
If bulletin board scamsters really do get paid for writing their nonsense, what do they tell people who ask them what they do for a living? A financial advisor? Something far more rude?
Well, the worst job I ever had was my first job between leaving school and going to sixth-form college. I was a shelf stacker in my local Spar supermarket. Every Friday evening, a scallywag family used to come in about six o'clock. They would put the kid on the trolley seat, take a drink and packet of sweets from the shelves and let him eat them while they would fill up the trolley from all over the store. By six-thirty, the trolley would be full - as would the child - and then they would just leave the trolley in the shop and walk out without paying. My job, before going home at seven, was to race round the store and put back all the things on the shelves. The manager was too frightened to confront them. I named them the Trolley Hounds. I had about 8 weeks of this palaver and decided that shop work wasn't for me. In the end, the Friday evening girl, Kim, who was still at school (a year younger than me) collared them one evening and told them to either pay up or feck off and don't come back or she'd 'fecking do them'. They didn't come back, by all accounts, which just goes to show there are many facets to customer service. I never had the chance to witness the scene, sadly.
Clearly, there are jobs that are an even bigger waste of time than BB scamster. Mind you, they are probably paid far more than I was.
Off topic, I know, but I just thought a little story would bring a little cheer before we all become millionaires.

'That barbarous relic' was a quote from Keynes where he was talking about the gold standard. It doesn't refer to gold as a commodity, in the way it is regarded today.
Like everything else, there is good and bad in every exchange rate mechanism. In the 1930s, the effect of being on the gold standard created terrible hardship, particularly for the USAs poor. We will see in a few years time in the West, whether coming off the gold standard in 1971 was such a good idea afterall.

Perhaps the young have decided that gold is safer than bitcoin? Certainly China will not be trying to ban gold anytime soon, or at least, difficult to buy and hold.
Given Capitol's statement last week, I see no reason to think that Centamin's results tomorrow will be dreadful. Just steady.

Hi Mr Tibbles
I've just returned from a week off in North Devon. Apart from last Sunday, the weather has been fanatastic. So many great walks along the coast - I didn't stop off in Lymington, the place I found the silver spoon all those years ago on the biology field trip.
I visited the Haynes Car Museum today. The two cars I particularly wanted to see were not on show today. That's a 1930s Lagonda and a 1960s Gordon Keeble. But I've got pictures of the Delorean, TR8, Spitfire Mk3, Ferraris, Alfa Romeos, Jensens -so many. Of course an e-type Jag as well. Some of the vintage cars are enormous - I thought some of the tanks on the road today were unnecessarily huge, but some vintage cars are like having a living room on the road (some US cars are just as big!).
The nicest car? An early 1930s Alfa Romeo. Just nice to look at.
The donkey sanctuary - I'll do something about it this week.

This topic was discussed earlier this year, but I thought it would be a good reminder now.

https://goldsilver.com/blog/if-stock-market-crashes-what-happens-to-gold-and-silver/

The first table in the above link suggests that gold usually increases in price as stocks crash. The large 46% decrease in gold price in the early 1980s crash is really down to the Thatcher and Reagan governments using monetay policy to reduce inflation that stoked up during the 1970s oil supply crises. Interestingly, the tech crash of the early 2000s saw the gold price increase.
At the moment, the commodity prices have pulled back from their highs while the NASDAQ has surged ahead. Note, however, that it's mainly the FAANG stocks that are rising; others such as MVIS are falling and some of the green tech stocks (FSLR and SUNW) are not blazing away. So, it's not a broad based tech rise.
Silver seems to do badly with market crashes. Silver does have industrial uses, so maybe it's not a surprise to see its price fall in a recession. Americans own a lot of silver, so they might have had to sell some during previous stock crashes, to pay the loans.
Of greatest interest is the 1970s market crash that saw a huge increase in the gold price. I would argue that that scenario is the most likely to be repeated when people ditch their Facebook shares this time around. Governments will respond to the next stock crash with yet more money printing, which will head towards commodities and precious metals. Then, the next Maggie and Ronnie show will begin all over again and I'll be ready to sell them all my gold for a ridiculously high price.
At the moment, gold and Centamin are gathering strength for the coming storm.

Too late, Mr B. I was born gaga.
Ah, the sun. I feel so much better in the sun. I just hope it can keep shining here in Britain and not turn into a muggy thunderstorm too soon.

Yes Mr B. Capital. I've had too much sun today, it would seem.

Hi Mr Tibbles
That sounds like our school dinners.
We weren't allowed to be naughty at school - there were too many witches on the prowl, so it was wise to behave.

It's the lowest level of shorts they've had for a while. A wise move - the Endevour report this morning shows their Centamin contract is running nicely to plan this year. A good set of Centamin results should give the share price a lift.