Member Info for redeyemines

----Think that may be your lot Afum/BS/ Callus---there is nobody left on here that believes a single word you say.
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-This last episode of "false news" and scare mongering, has shown you for what you are, ---just a trader trying to manipulate the SP in your favour.
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-Well done to all those who took advantage of this stupidity, and grabbed a bargain.
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-never again listen to these trolls

---Here we go again, a complete re-run of the Sun Trust fiasco.----
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--It was Sun Trust who sold out too early and then kicked up a fuss trying to get a better deal, and of course it all ended with a fizzle---just a storm in a tea cup, --but latched onto by our resident shorters who huffed and puffed the " story" to within an inch of it's life, just to suit their short position.
-Did we get an apology when it all turned out to be nonsense----of course not.
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-Now here we are ---Sahara selling out at the bottom and kicking up a fuss, ---blaming everybody but themselves---and guess what----out come our same old band of shorters , with the same old lines of doom and gloom---just to suit their short.
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-All denied in the Press and RNS this morning ---but again not a sign of an apology---- just more spreading of false "news" , and doom and gloom.
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-I'm not privy to what's going on with ELI and our FSO, and the RTO, but i'd bet a pound to a penny that things are close to completion, and these shorters and their false "stories" are creating a great buying opportunity

Around the 10th of September last year, articles in the Bangla press started to leak bits and pieces about what was in the Draft of the IEPMP report.
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- https://www.newagebd.net/article/180674/draft-energy-master-plan-ignores-key-issues-experts.
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-and we started getting excited about this one line
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-"-"The experts were surprised that the draft IEPMP even considered open coal pit mining an option."
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-Personally I read it as ---considered it and then rejected it-----but that was just my guess.
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------What got, me reading that article, was that the draft seemed to be out in the public domain---somewhere.
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-I tried to find it (I even contacted the Bangla press---but I failed---So I contacted our Company, as I know they are always all over any press article, and I felt sure they should have seen or heard what was in that Draft report.---I even asked that if they did not want to comment on this draft--could they give me a link to it, and let me make up my own mind.
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-But I got no answer-just silence.
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-I asked again and again (right up until two weeks ago) but still got no answer.
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-I finally lost patience with our CFO and almost insisted on a reply, which i finally got
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--------"In regards to the IEPMP, i cant comment,"--and---"If there was a direct link to anything, i am sure you would have located it already,"-----
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-Six months, to get that as a reply------you have to read it how you will.
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-All I know is that when those leaks were around in Sept, we had volume of over 2 million a day, and now the SP is down at rock bottom.

somebody had to say it ----lol

Yes Marv, ------it is an absolute disaster, and I just don't see how they are going to get out of this.
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-For all their wheeling and dealing they have dug one enormous hole for themselves, that is far worse than even they are now realising.
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-They have a generating capacity of around 27, 000 MW----but are only generating bout 10,000 or 11,000 MW.
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-They need to be producing electricity for about 7/8 Tkr per unit, to make it affordable for the country to grow---------------but they are no-where near that fig.
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-They have a vast array of privately owned, but eased back, diesel generators.---But due to the cost of diesel, the end price is over 20Tkr per unit---so these plants are standing idle.
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-They have a few gas plants, but have no gas to run them, and to import the gas would push the unit costs up to around 18 Tkr per unit-so again these plants are sitting idle.
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-They have two up and running new Coal fired power plants, ---one at Rampal in the Sundarbans and one at Parya at Cods Bazar.-------Both of these would produce power at about 12 Tkr per unit, but they need imported coal to run, --and Bangla hasn't got the $'s to pay for it----they had to borrow $5 billion from the World Bank to pay the bills to date --so again now even these are sitting idle.
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-Now they have sleep walked into this deal with Adani, and are committed to buying power for anything up to 23 Tkr per unit-----which is just totally unacceptable and cannot be past on at that rate to the population-----it remains to be seen how this will pan out.
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-The only secure power plant they have, is at Barakapour, via an inefficient underground coal mine---and this only produces about 600 MW.
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-As if this was not bad enough, they have to pay "capacity Charges" to all those plants , whether they are producing or not-----god only knows how high that bill is.
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-Now with 15,000 MW of generating capability already sitting idle---(and still being paid for)------------they now have the Godda JV coming on stream-which will produce another 1,460 MW of power that is too dear for Bangla to be able to use (23 Tkr ).----They must also pay the maintenance and upkeep of that plant, together with a Capacity Charge----whether they use the power or not.
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-So much capability to produce, but hardly any of it at the price they can afford to use.
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-And all of it still needs the "Capacity Charge" paying.
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-They will have to scrap or mothball some plants, just to be able to use the others--------but still they have to pay.
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----Use your own coal at PHULBARI--we all shout.------yes, great
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-But first could would be at least 6-7 years away-----------what on the earth are they going to do in the meantime.

---Arrest the people who signed this agreement on behalf of the Bangladesh people.----and ---renege on the contract.

At last people seem to be waking up to the situation in Bangla, regarding energy.
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-Nothing functions without a, constant, affordable, supply of power, and it should have been the country's number one priority.
-Instead the GOB has taken a bit by bit approach, and has tried to cobble together a ram shackle policy of bits and pieces, without any plan for how they will all be conjealed for the future.
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-Now they are having to rely on Imported fuel, as well as Imported power, with the result that over half of their generating capacity is lying idle, as they haven't got the FX to pay for the importation of the necessary fuel to run them.
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-A vast coal deposit has been left untouched, for all sorts of obscure reasons-and questions now need to be asked.
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-Why has Bangladesh gone in for a maze of import based power plants and ignored it's own "free" coal.??

Gooner----I have position that is too large to try and offload now (much larger than most of our Board of Directors)-------
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---I have written it off, so will just have to ride it out.

.Pappi, thanks for that.----I'm sure Gary put up a good argument at the AGM-----but this is all about what Hasina thinks. .________________________________________________________________________
february 6, 2023 2:29 PM

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on Monday directed the authorities concerned not to take any development project on arable land where crops grow three times in a year.

She came up with the directives at the cabinet meeting held at the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) here.

The premier presided over the meeting.

Later, Cabinet Secretary Md Mahbub Hossain briefed reporters at the Secretariat here on the decisions and outcomes of the meeting.

Mahbub Hossain said different ministries and departments were submitting proposals for construction of development projects, including installation of solar panels and building construction, on arable land.

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina gave clear instructions restricting implementation of development projects on agricultural lands rather than directed to conserve those, he said.

Now, he said, the decisions of the cabinet meeting will be sent to the ministries concerned through letters.

Prime Minister Sheikh HasinaDevelopment Project

Tiggy I'm afraid I have to agree with you there---we may well have to take some drastic action, or just pack up and walk away, we cannot carry on like this year after year.
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-I don't think a lot of people on here realised the significance of her latest outburst.
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-She insisted there will be NO MORE major developments on agricultural land, ---and, more importantly,--- she instructed ALL of her ministers to tell all people putting forward proposals, that she will not even allow Solar Panels to be put on to agricultural land.
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----If this is not aimed at Phulbari, then I don't know what is.
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-So yes Tiggy, it looks like we have just two choices left-------------------Take the whole thing to Court---Or sell the licence to someone with deep pockets and plenty of patients ---(Power China maybe)

Got to say this, even if it does shoot me in the foot as well.
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----Something is benefiting Shek Hasina NOT to mine Phulbari.
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-My guess is that it all revolves around the mine at Barakapour, which is owned be state run Petrobangla, and maybe directly benefiting Shk Hasina.
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-Phulbari would make Barak obsolete and probably force its closure, something that interested parties are not going to let happen.
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-Phulbari will never be given the GL while Barak is still going.

----I posted early last week about how this deal was signed between India and Bangladesh without senior members present.
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-No wonder they didn't want to be there, as i'm sure they wanted to keep as far away as possible, and deny all knowledge once the facts came out.
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-Now we are starting to see all the figs and it just gets worse and worse.
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-Adani are going to be using 7---9 mill tons of coal a year to produce 1460 MW--or about 5.48 mill tons per 1000 MW.
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-now look at what was proposed at Phulbari.
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-16 mill tons a year to produce 6000 MW ---or 2.66 mill tons per 1000 MW
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-Nearly twice as much coal needed for the same result.
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-If it was poor, substandard coal you could understand, ---but Adani are charging Bangladesh top dollar $400 a ton---a price that should have guaranteed the very best quality.
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-Everything about this deal doesn't add up---so many people getting rich, with their fingers in the pie, while the people of Bangladesh get well and truly fleeced.
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-Brings us back to the same old question, ---Why wont GOB mine their own coal at Phulbari.
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-For the answer to this, you have to look and see who would lose out if the OP mine was to happen.----If a super efficient OP mine was to open and produce coal at next to nothing, who would suffer ???
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-Barakapour--------that underground mine, beset by problems, and right next door---they would be the loser, and would probably be forced out of business.
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-But remember Barak is owned by Petrobangla the State Owned company, and that is the reason they were given the go ahead all those years ago, long before any proper studies and reports were done----another shady deal ??
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-Now they are stuck----they cant force the closure of their own plant at Barak, so they squash the OP mine instead----Bara or Phulbari---doesn't sound like you can have both--(-no doubt somebody would lose out).
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-So what's next.?.----more coal is needed that's for sure, but where from.
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-Petrobangla have another field nearby Dighiapor (or something like that), which would also be another inefficient underground mine----and if that is what comes out in the IEPMP report due out in March, then you can forget about Phulbari forever.
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-Lets hope not.

Lets face it Luckyswimmer-----GCM are over a barrel on this, and if GOB said yes you can mine Phulbari but we want ALL the coal, and we are only going to pay you $50 a tonne, we would have no choice but to agree.
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-So everything is a win, win, for Bangla----
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-I cannot believe that the Bangla Press are not asking some deep questions here.

I'm sure Adani will back down and agree to supply coal at the current market rates, or at least equal to the price Bangla is getting coal for its Coxes and Sundarbans plants.
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-but that is still not the issue.
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-The whole deal stinks and is massively out of balance, with the only benefits going to Adani and India.
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-Whoever signed this deal on behalf of Bangla should be arrested.
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-So many brown envelopes have changed hands to get this done that now they are finding it imposable to do the only sensible thing------WALK AWAY FROM THE WHOLE DEAL.
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-From the rented Diesel plants, to the Import led Coxes plant and the import led Sundarbans plant, and every other step Bangla has taken, the entire Energy Policy is a complete and utter shambles, ------Nearly twice the needed capacity, with two third of that lying idle as they cannot afford the fuel to run them, and yet they re still paying eye watering amounts in capacity charges for plants that are doing nothing.
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-Huge import bills, that are only being paid via loans from the World Bank---and that is when they can afford to pay-----the interest on those loans is crippling---and both the Coxes and Sunda plants are out of commission as Bangla haven't paid for the imported coal, and supplies have been halted----------------what a mess.
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-The obvious answer---to use their own coal----has been met with a brick wall (Shk Hasina), and you have to ask why.-------
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-The crop growing argument doesn't hold water as the numbers prove------lost crops would cost $40---50 million a year to replace, ---but the coal would save between $2 and 5 BILLION a year in imports and the Tax revenue to Bangla would also be in the 100 of $ million, or maybe even Billions of $'s
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-The reason Phulbari is not being mined can only be Corruption----past brown envelopes are tying her hands.

Nothing changes in history, and the same "Divide and Rule" smoke screen has been used for centuries.
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-Whenever awkward questions get asked of politicians, the answer has always been to sidestep the issue by asking a different question.
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--Inflation, corruption, and police intimidation are all avoided by turning the arguments into religious sectarianism---it's the Hindus fault---it's the Muslims fault---they did this in the past, they did that in the past.
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-Marches, riots and military intervention will never lead to fair transparent politics, and open elections, all it will do is widen the divides, deepen the entrenchment, and muddy the waters.
-Genuine opposition will be squashed, and its voice lost in the turmoil, while the ruling party will have all the excuse it needs to use a heavy hand and tighten its grip on power.

Sorry, i keep saying Diani when it should be Adani.

Yes BANGLA----brown envelopes rule in Bangla----fact.
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-Makes you wonder what has changed hands over Phulbari-----why are they so adamant in not wanting to mine there ???

If you get some time read the second article in this link, about India and Diani, and the JV with Bangla.-------it makes bad reading
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---- https://en.prothomalo.com/bangladesh/x1veltw9m7
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-Basically Bangla have signed into a JV whereby India (via Adani Grp) produce electricity and it is all exported to Bangla.
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----sounds good ??---read the small print.
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-Bangla must pay $460 mill a year for maintenance and upkeep of the plant, whether it is producing or not.
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-Diani are supplying the coal from THEIR Australian mine and charging top dollar ---$400 against todays price of $250
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-Diani are shipping the coal to Bangla in THEIR own ships
-To a port in Bangla owned by DIANI
-Then it goes on a DIANI railway to the power station.
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------Bangla has to pay ALL the shipping and transport cost.
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-The result is that the forecast cost of the electricity, that Bangla are committed to buy, --is not the expected 8 Tkr per unit, but more like 25 TKr per unit----far DEARER than any other power coal and diesel included.
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-On top of that Bangla has almost twice the generating capacity that it needs and almost two thirds is lying idol (because they cannot afford the fuel), but Bangla is committed to pay for the rent and upkeep of these plants.--------With the JV Indian plant at Godda now coming on stream, Bangla has even more capacity that it does not need.-----Whichever one they stop using, still has to be paid for----a total disaster .
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-Now look at DIANI GRP---they are under all sorts of investigations, for all sorts of price rigging (from coal, to their own stock price), and have jus been forced to cancel a $2 bill share offering, and their stock has plummeted by over $100 mill (or is it Bill) today.
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-If ever Bangla had a get out of jail card, this must be it.-------Walk away from the JV deal with Adani.----just renege and pay a penalty if need be.
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-Diani have spent $2.3 bill setting up this plant, but Bangla are committed to paying $11 bill in costs over the next 25 years..------Leave the deal and pay half the set up cost , it would save themselves a fortune in the long run, and they wont be paying exorbitant prices for imported electricity.
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-After that.
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-Well you can guess the rest.

So lets just see where they are.
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-They can't afford to import coal to run the new plant at Rampal.
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-They can't afford to import coal to run the new plant in the Sundarbans.
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-and now they can't afford to pay the price Adani are charging them for the electricity from the new JV project in India.
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-Of course the obvious answer was always--- "mine your own coal"---no prizes for that.---a child of 6 would have told them that, ----so the big question remains
-----Why have they not mined Phulbari ?????------
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-Something , somewhere is tying their hands and stopping them from going OP.

I hope this is not true ,---but you could really believe it in Bangla.
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-A report in the "Energy and Power " magazine, that Bangla signed this agreement without reading it properly.
-A multi Billion $ venture just signed blind-------as you say Marv----more "Brown Envelopes" than you can shake a stick at.
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----"Most of the top and senior officials of the Power Division were unable to attend, the report adds. This absence of officials seemed to end up in missing the discount provision in the deal?"