Member Info for redeyemines

---This was something I was saying the other day, but got taken to task by Pappi who had misconstrued what I was trying to get at.
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-It is, and always has been, about Shk Hasina and her refusal to entertain the idea of Open Pit Mining.
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-None of the reasons given not to mine, hold any water. The physical problems have been studied and a solution found to everything, from water to land usage, both during and after mining.
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-The last excuse was that the land was needed for food production, but that again made no sense.
-The value of the crop production lost whilst the mining is going on, is a fraction of the value of the coal that could be produced, thus saving FX on imports.
-The lost crops could be imported to cover the shortfall, at a max of $30-50 mill annually, but if GCM are right, there may not even be a loss of production at all. (increased water for irrigation, fertilizers ect, could see an extra crop every year, and therefore more food not less).
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-Every single reason given NOT to mine Phulbari has been proved to be wrong.
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-So what i meant was Shk Hasina's refusal just doesn't add up.
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-Even now they would seem to be heading for more underground mining next door to Phulbari.----They are talking about maybe getting 3500 tons a day---have they learnt nothing from Barra.---- Underground water, land subsidence, loss of housing, and farming above ground, and production, at best, barely 2000 tons a day (when the mine is actually working).
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-And yet they talk about just more of the same, rather than "borrowing " the land to OP and produce 16 mill tons a year, and then returning most of the land back to farming as each section of the mine finishes.
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-Why is Hasina so hell bent on not OP mining Phulbari--- IT JUST DOESN'T ADD UP

yes In888---but they are talking about using own coal, and the pressure to use Phulbari OP which is right next door, will be growing all the while---is this the sighting shot to gauge reaction.

WOW----GL coming

Yes Searcher, that's what i have been saying all along. ---Both of those plants are based on imported coal, the price of which can only be "guessed"at.
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-Now they are paying twice their original estimate, and a few months back, that would have been over three times the original "guess".
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-When China sorts out its Covid problem, and goes back to full industrial production, then coal will resume it's upward march, and those two plants will be struggling to even find enough coal, let alone be able to afford it.
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-When speaking to the company over three years ago, the proposal was nearly ready, with just a few more hands to shake and people lined up to be on side.
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-Now as we enter 2023, the position still seems to be exactly the same.
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-It's all well and good trying to cover all the bases and making sure you have all the boxes ticked, before you take the gamble of presenting----------but you can be over cautious.
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-Time will run away and events will move on, and at some stage, using coal will become a definite no no. The next COP meeting could have an entirely different result, with a world united in stopping coal use.
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-If we haven't made a move to present our proposal by then, it will be too late, and the venture could be dead in the ground forever.
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-Maybe we should start by getting the Bangla press to put ALL of our proposals in print and highlight the benefits compared to the loss of farm land ect.----Let the people see exactly what will happen, and how they will benefit----------.
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-So come on GCM, stop trying to be cleaver, with secret meetings trying to drum up support. ------------Just put it forward and see what happens.

https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/world/africa/cop27-deal-delivers-landmark-on-loss-and-damage-but-little-else-1668956322
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-Cop has finished with fizzle, and no further progress or commitments have been reached since the last meeting.
--It seems clear that many countries are fully prepared to carry on using fossil fuels and especially coal, and are not in a rush to phase them out.
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-phasing out of of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies was again urged, but interestingly, expanding the use of Natural Gas, with its Methane and Carbon Dioxide, seemed to be more of a worry than ultra high efficient coal power .
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-Clearly coal still has a long future in front of it, with many of the main users (China, America, India ect), not prepared to go further to hurry its end of use.
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-=---- "It is more than frustrating to see overdue steps on mitigation and the phase-out of fossil energies being stonewalled by a number of large emitters and oil producers,"
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-The only progress made by the meeting was to agree to the setting up of a fund, to compensate vunerable countries for the effect of global warming, and even the details on this fund won't be ironed out until next year (if ever).
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-Trying to buy off developing countries, with the promise of compensation for something or the other, at some stage in the future, will not stop those countries using fossil fuels to help them catch up with the rest of the world.-- With the amount of pollution created by the likes of Bangladesh, compared to China, why would these small countries stop their own growth to mitigate the big polluters---they wont, --and probably can't, until the world finds the right alternatives.
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-With the door left firmly open after this meeting, now would seem the ideal time to finally put our full proposal on the table, and see if it will fly.

That's my whole point C Stallion----it just doesn't add up.
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-She talks as if the farming was more financially important than the value of the coal---which it is not.
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-Even if the whole 5192 hectares were to be lost to farming, that would mean a loss of 41,536 tonnes of rice annually, which would cost just $23 mill to buy in from abroad.
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-But of couse only 1/3 of the land would not be farmable, so the loss to the community, to buy in that rice, would only be around $8 mill a year.
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-Set that against the value of the 16 mill tonnes of coal that would be mined annually, with a saving in FX imports of $5BILL, and it's no contest.
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-AND
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-If the expected improvements in number of crops and yield, through better irrigation ect-- are correct, then the region would be 9,000 tonnes a year better off----making an extra $5 mill a year for the area.
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-It was and is such a sound business model, that it has been lunacy to turn it down, especially when you consider, that after the mining has finish, most of the land will be reinstated and put back to farming anyway.
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-Nothing She has ever said or done adds up to scrutiny, and has definitely not benefitted Bangladesh at all.

Been doing a few sums and am going to bore you all with the results.--If you feel ive made a mistake please feel free to correct me..
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--"Over the life of the Project the mine footprint will occupy 5,192 hectares. However, at any one time only a third of this area will be actively mined and the rest will still be under cultivation (or some other meaningful land use) either in advance of mining or following rehabilitation of the land after mining."-
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--Rice in this district yields about 4 Tonne to the Hectare, and they typically get two crops a year.--So the total Mine footprint of 5192 hectares would produce around 41,530 tonnes of rice a year..
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-Let us say that the land being used for, or in the preparation of, mining is 2000 hectares at any one stage, while the other 3,200 hectares are still producing.-That 3200 hectares would produce around 25,600 tonnes a year with a two crop harvest----------
----So Bangladesh would be about 16,000 tonnes a year short of current production.--
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But now look at some of the benefits of mining.--
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---Irrigation (provided my the water from the mine), fertilizer and better farming practices, could double the amount of rice produced per hectare.-
----"This will deliver an additional crop per year and higher yields per crop. Rice production alone will more than double as a result." --
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--So the remaining 3200 hectares not being used for mining could produce around 50,000  tonnes a year----------9,000 MORE than before mining,-
-That could be consumed inside Bangladesh or sold abroad to generate about $5 mill in FX--Mining the coal at 16 mill tonnes a year would save Bangladesh around $5 BILLION a year in FX import costs.--
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--It would produce the much needed electricity (at a very cheap rate), and spawn all sorts of other industrial, and developmental benefits.--and there would have been no need to go and borrow $5 bill from the IMF.---
----They could have had their cake and eaten it.
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---Unless I have got all these, (very rough ) , figs totally wrong, then there are some serious questions to be asked of the GOB, as to the direction they are taking.-
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--Something just doesn't add up.

They built that power station in the face of stiff opposition.-Right on the edge of the Sundarbans National Heritage park, and the only way to get fuel (coal) to it, is to risk shipping and barging the coal right through the mangrove swamp.
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-Everybody told them it was a disaster waiting to happen, but still they pushed ahead with it, and now look-------Almost immediately one of the ships have sunk.---I bet they never tell you how much damage and pollution this accident has caused.

----And they will have to send those ships through those Mangroves EVERY day, 24 hours a day, --for years and years------what a nonsense the whole project was.
-----Import expensive dirty coal, and ship it through a World Heritage site.
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-Grow rice on top of you're own coal??--what on the earth is that all about----especially when you remember that now Bangla has to borrow FX to pay for the coal they are importing,.
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-Don't know the exact sums but one Hectare produced about 3.5 tonnes of rice and at about at $700 a tonne, i'm sure it would have been cheaper to import the rice, and produce the coal.
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-Producing 16 mill tonnes of coal annually would have saved around $5.6 bill in FX imports, ---which is the exact amount they have just borrowed from the IMF.----I bet the interest on that loan alone, would have gone a long way to covering the import cost of buying the rice.

---So much press now all talking the same thing--forget COP27----use own coal.
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-The arguments for not mining Phulbari are wafer thin now---every problem has been addressed and solutions found.
-The folly of spending all that FX to import coal, never did make any sense, and now it cannot be justified , as Bangladesh has to go to the World Bank for a 4.5 bill dlr loan just to keep going.
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-All we need now is for one of the Bangla Press to pick up our project and sell it to the people.
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-Maybe---just maybe.

----"Even coal exploration was export-oriented. Coal exploration lobbyists are now active. They say that coal exploration in Phulbari will develop the north -- but this definition of development does not take into account the loss of agricultural land, water and the internal migration it will cost," said Anu Muhammad."---
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-------Will nobody rid us of this troublesome Prof--?
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-He is just a self appointed loudmouth who has caused nothing but trouble for the past 15 years.
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--All his arguments are wrong
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-The coal at Phulbari is NOT for export---it will be sold cheaply to, and used exclusively by Bangladesh. To make electricity for their own people.
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-The mine will NOT destroy farm land----it will be mined in stages, and the land reinstated, using the overburden, before moving on to the next tranche.
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-There will be NO loss of water, ---in fact the project will supply a constant, reliable stream of water for irrigation---and this will INCREASE crop production---(see Marv's excellent post)
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-Now he wants the Gov to go after Gas---which is just another fossil fuel---but one they haven't got.
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-And he would rather that development of the country takes place elsewhere, rather bring new business and infrastructure to this backward region.
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-When will the Bangladesh press spell out the benefits of the whole project, instead of just giving this agitator centre stage all the time.

Yes Papp---all the studies were done years ago, and all the problems that have been put upo as reasons and hurdles for not going ahead at Phulbari, have also been met and dealt with at Barak.
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-The subsidence has ruined farm land and homes----underground water has slowed down mining, ---and now a lake has formed where the land has "sagged"----just like the lake that will be left once OP has finished and most of the land re-instated using the overburden.
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----All those reasons were being used as an excuse not to mine Phulbari-----but if it is good enough for Bara, then Op should go ahead.

Yup

ICB888---Of course I totally agree that any BIG news will set the SP alight-----------I have said that on all my previous posts, and didn't think it needed repeating.

Ukmicky----in the bit you have quoted ---he skirted the question of --"why haven't we used the coal at Ding"----just giving explanations about how each field could be mined.
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-Did he go on to say anything further, and answer the question ??

That sounds like a real positive----is there any more please ukmicky?

Hmmm---- where to start.
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-Firstly let me say , that I don't know of any bad news in the background that is causing this drop.-----and if there is, then ignore this post.
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-Secondly, and more importantly, ---I believe 100% in the value of Char's gas and other assets.
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-So Why the fall in the SP ?
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-Let's start with the II's----three large placings have given them all the stock they need at this stage, and with the equity mkts still falling, they could well be sellers rather than buyers at this early period in Chars life.
-With the earliest production forecast to be at least two years away, and so many other threads still needing to be initiated (funding etc etc), production and revenue could easily be two, three or even four years away yet---( we just don't know at this stage )----So institutions are sitting on the side lines waiting for concrete developments, before they will move in again,--- and that leaves it all to the PI's to support the SP.
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-Pi's have been chasing this down from the low 20's , "topping up " at every drop, and getting in deeper and deeper, ---(nothing wrong with that, as it looks a sound investment----LONG TERM)---but unlike II's --PI's always have an eye on, and a need for, their cash, ----and no matter how solid the story looks, panic sets it when the "family fortune" goes down nearly 50% on paper, and many are now being squeezed out, and taking big losses.
-Will those that have sold at a loss now, ever have the courage to come back in ?? --because at some stage Char is going to be a raging BUY again.
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----Is that time now ??--- I don't know.-----but you would have to be extremely lucky or smart, to be able to hit the bottom and get all your funds in, at that level.
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-We will see small rallies, and drops continue while the Eq Mkt is still in disarray, and god knows when that will stop.-----But you will only notice that it has "bottomed Out", months after it has happened.
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-!0p would seem the obvious buy target in Char---but is that too obvious.?
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-If 10p is a good target, then buying at this level and hoping to average down, would seem a sensible strategy, rather than holding out for "the bottom " which may never come.
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-While it is all down to PI buying to support the SP, the the MM's will always have you at their mercy, and we could well see rallies, to suck in buyers, followed by more really bad days, like yesterday, as they try try to squeeze you back out again-----Its just that time is on their side, and they will use it.
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-At some stage the II's will come back to the table-------------if there are no more placings-------then they will come back to the MKT to add or replace their stake.----Watch out for continual buying, or large lumps changing hands (always a sign that a level has been reached)----only then, is it really Game On again.
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-Still plenty of time to find buying opportunities.

---" It smacks of corruption "---couldn't agree more ICB888.
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-They would rather go on a wild goose chase looking for the elusive mother load of Gas, or pray for sun and wind and hope to get renewables, than mine the coal at Phulbari.
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-In fact, they would rather import coal from all round the world, to fuel their inaccessible, or expensive new power plants, other than mine Phulbari.
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-They would rather buy Electricity from India, generated by dirty INDIAN coal, instead of using the "clean" coal at Phulbari to generate their own power.
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--They will talk about every option, other than their own coal t Phulbari---not one word.
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-I don't know what deals were done in the past, behind closed doors---but something stinks.

Three good bits from Searcher, out of the Bangla press.
-One on Bangla needing to grow and catch up with the developed world.
-One on escalating commodity prices.
-And one on the falling FX reserves of Bangla.
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---Where do you start.
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----Hasina says that it is right for Bangladesh to ignore agreements on climate change, and do what the developed world has done, and use fossil fuels to grow the country---yes of course.
-Then she says, it is the developed worlds fault that the climate is changing, because they used fossil fuels. and sea levels are rising, endangering countries like Bangla,-----yes of course.
-But Bangla IS using coal---maybe not their own,--- but using coal they are.
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-You could almost hear her pat herself on the back, because Bangla only produces a small amount of coal. ----But that's not the real issue----All the coal being Imported to Bangla is mined somewhere in the world---whoever produces it---it's the same problem.
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-High world prices of fossil fuels are a fact, and nothing will change that for the present. .----The answer, is of course, -----don't buy expensive imports, use your own coal.
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--Then you look at Bangla's falling FX reserves, caused by buying expensive imports and not being able to produce goods for export--------------the answer is again-don't import, --use your own coal.
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-The world has turned on its head in the last year, and it's almost every country for itself now.
----Keep raw materials for yourself ---(or pay sky high prices to import).
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-The reluctance of Bangladesh to use it's own coal and yet rely on importing that same thing , is baffling everyone---- but to then say, we cant afford to import it, and you should bail us out---is even more baffling.
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-Talk to GCM/PC and get good quality CHEAP fuel for the next 30-50 years, Guaranteed

I never saw that original post on ADVN about Soc Gen, but its been obvious the MM's were running a short book, ---now we see why.
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-With that post from Surfit today, things could now steady up.

Hmmm----Don't see any news anywhere ---so this drop does seem a bit drastic, and plenty of Stops being taken out..---time to add a few more maybe, but not convinced we have seen the bottom yet----but trying to hit the very bottom could be an error.
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-this looks an ok level to add