The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Michael Goodwill
UKOG at Horse Hill had their well situated on the fracture,and consequently had the geological advantage..in that the fracture spews out more oil.
Angus recklessly and inaccurately stated that the "kimmeridge at Brockham is identical (a carbon copy) of Horse Hill,and asserted with certainty that the oil was just as mature.However,because Brockham kimmeridge was on the edge of the weald,it was actually a duster!
They quite negligently misrepresented the potential of Brockham,asserting that it would be the paramount producer,"Star wars"..whereas Balcombe would pale into insignificance by comparison.
Leading gas industry consultancies and think tanks consider it inevitable now that gas prices will turn negative,making it impossible for gas companies to break even.
There has been a severe fall in demand(which will only intensify as the recession deepens),surging inventories of gas,and an acute oversupply of gas in an overcrowded market,with both imports and renewable energy sources making it an extremely unprofitable sector.
According to:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-Europe-gas-id USKBN22Y1T3
"Some traders are expecting European gas contracts..to go to zero,or even turn negative,which could force sellers to give their gas away"
This could be the case even with a recovery in demand.Both production cuts(which would instantly make Saltfeedby a loss maker),and increased demand(with oversupply and a prolonged recession,its not going to happen) would be essential.Prices could well fall to a level that would shut in UK production.
Quatar petroleum has already stated it will continue to export gas to Britain even if there is little demand,and western European storage capacity will be full by late july.
Centrica..the dominant UK gas player..has been forced to leave UK gas plants idle.If Centrica has suffered a 35% loss,,and us forced to reduce as production,how on earth can anyone in all honesty,predict that Angus at Saltfeedby,will be viable?
James The Second:
"Oil exploration is a risky business"....
Yes,but according to our then ceo in 2017,Angus energy isnt an explorer,but producer of oil that's abundant,so it wasnt in the least speculative.
I've lost on truly speculative stocks before,and I took it on the chin,because the respective company was totally upfront and honest with investors about the high level of uncertainty.
Angus is a totally different scenario.We were all informed that the oil was there,ready to produce,there were in caveats,it was asserted as a fait accompli...an indisputable fact.
Angus investors arent just "unlucky this time" we have been quite negligently and wildly mislead about the assets.
This is the question I've submitted on the investor forum...it will be intriguing to see what they say
This is the question I've submitted on the investor forum...it will be intriguing to see what they say
I'd really like to know how the search for a permanent Managing Director to replace George Lucan,is progressing.
How many candidates for the position have been interviewed?
It has been 16 months since GL was appointed,and investors really want someone with industry experience.
This is the RNS that was released at the time of George's appointment:
"George Lucan will act as interim Managing Director,pending thr company's search for a permanent appointee with industry experience to develop the company's business beyond its current core .."
Has the search began?-interviews?-an executive headhunter been instructed?
Exactly!!...That's exactly what I've been saying and slated as a "troll" or "deramper" simply for stating it.
What's bs is the fact that you think gas and oil prices will hold up and substantially recovery in gas prices will occur...in spite of economists predicting we are heading for the longest recession since the 1930s..with lasting economic devastation caused by covid and in all likelihood covid spiked ahead.
Sorry,but your comment sounds economically illiterate.
Anyone heard from Yorkshire Life?...an extremely regular and perceptive poster..be good to see him back.
Ocelot
It really is unconscionable of you to go off on a tangent and mislead people by going on about NPV calculations.
You are completely ignoring the macro-economic environment,the severe recession which will deepen and be prolonged,and its devastating effect on the demand for oil and gas.I would remind you that oil prices actually turned negative,and it isnt impossible for gas prices to do the same.You are trying to foment a big bubble in the Angus share price,which will burst in the same devastating way that the dot com bubble did.
This is the opinion of 'Petroleum economist' magazine-
"The global gas market is facing difficult times due to:
1) demand uncertainty;
2)overbought supply;
3)Sustained oil prices into the medium term;
New supply continues to come online in an over saturated market for gas.
Economic growth is a proxy for greater global usage(negative and very low economic growth 2020-22).
Consultancy Geopolitical Centre(GPC)..a specialist econometric forecaster,predicts 2 medium term scenarios:
A 'flash pandemic' where Covid-19 suddenly reappears with a vengeance.
The other scenario is that of a 'double whammy(DW)'where the prolonged impact of coronavirus is accompanied by a very long recession.
They havent even factored in the economic shock of a no trade deal brexit next year.
But I suppose 'Petroleum economist' and the economic forecasters are just 'sore losers' who invested in Angus too lol?
www.petroleumeconomist.com
Absolutely Greengrass
The Saltfeedby business model isnt sustainable at all,with the collapse in wholesale gas prices.An 80% fall in gas prices means revenue projections need to be substantially reduced,making it impossible for Saltfeedby to be a viable,commercial producer.With a deep recession for the next 2 years,gas prices will only manage a very modest,insignificant recovery.
The original projections that Angus forecast for Saltfeedby production and revenue are now totally obsolete.. and irrelevant,because they were predicated on gas prices of 50+ thermos.. the price is currently 10.
This means investors must factor in an 80% fall in revenue. Most economic forecasters anticipate only a modest recovery in gas prices in 2021.Even these may be optimistic,and we are heading into the deepest recession since the 1930s,which means that even with cuts in gas and oil production,demand will fall proportionately more.
https://knoema.com/ncszerf/natural-gas-price-forecast-2020-2021-and-long-term -to 2030
Andy 882
The share price will spike and crash down soon.
I've been invested here 3 years and every time the share price spikes up,they do a placing..mark my words a placing is coming.
The whole business model has been undermined.. wrecked completely..by the fact that the therm price has collapsed from 50 to 10.
The numbers in the RNS releases didnt factor in an 80% collapse in gas prices,and consequently an 80% fall in revenues .
A placing is imminent and inevitable,and profitability unachievable with the destruction in the gas price and intense competition from gas importers.
Not looking good..either in terms of micro business factors or the macroeconomic environment of a deep,prolonged recession and plummeting gas prices.
We absolutely need an MD with a historic track record in the Oil and Gas sector.
GL is a good financier I'm sure,but it must be a really steep learning curve for him understanding the technical complexities of oil extraction .
Sadly you arent a "high roller " merely an uber ramper...a gatekeeper of the company here to hype up and embellish a very dubious strategy and suck in unsuspecting new investors.Anyone who has been invested here for any length of time can certainly see through your BS!
First of all,why should investors have confidence in the Saltfeedby CPR?...the CPR reports on Lidsey and Brockham made equally grandiose and overly optimistic claims.These CPRs certainly misrepresented the true productivity of Lidsey and Brockham,so why should we have any confidence in the Saltfeedby CPR?-l
Secondly,if it's such a productive asset,why are Angus being paid to take it off the original owners hands?
Thirdly,Balcombe cannot produce meaningful amounts of oil by conventional means.The CEO of Cuadrilla confirmed this.Most academic geologists confirm that the Kimmeridge cannot be commercially exploited conventionally ,only with fracking.
I think my analytical skills and prowess are far greater than paid rampers who are simply misrepresenting and hyping these projects...
Also...companies sell assets for a pound when there are serious environmental liabilities.The fact that Angus was paid £2 million in clean up costs is another red flag.The liabilities will be much higher than that,otherwise Saltfeedby would have been sold.
I read some posters exultantly declaring that at these low historic prices...these shares are a real bargain and "good value".
It seems like some investors are at risk of trying "to catch a falling knife".For the uninitiated,this happens when investors buy into a stock whose price has plummeted massively because their logic goes,it will inevitably bounce back considerably.
This is a dangerous misconception.Investors need to ask themselves WHY this fall has occurred.It usually indicates a fundamental problem with the company,its strategy and income stream.The fact it still hasn't recovered from pre Brockham rns levels,and is still down by 84% is a blatant red flag that should set alarm bells ringing for any savvy investor.If Saltfeedby and Balcombe were such potentially productive assets,then why hasn't the share price recovered?-the simple answer is that the market do not believe this story.
They know Saltfeedby is depleted,and no company simply gives away a viable asset-only an exhausted or distressed one.GL might as well just say "we just need to turn the taps on"...now where I have heard that before?-the market rejects these wildly optimistic projections that Saltfeedby adds 4p to the value.
Invest at your peril.
Lol!
More delayed timetables.We were supposed to be starting on Saltfeedby in April!
Angus has a notorious history of submitting seriously flawed planning applications,and ongoing battles with councils in Sussex and Surrey.I honestly hope theyve submitted it correctly this time.
"Ultimately these high risk oilers could go either way"
Sir Bob...that's what they'd like you to think.
In reality,95% end up losing all their value,simply because the prospects are unrealistic and theyve been hyped up quite unconscionably.
This is the reason that the AIM indice always records a net loss ..even in a bull market when all the other ftse indices are surging ahead.With AIM you take a 100% risk with a high probability of a negative return.
Traction,really??
Now you are having a laugh I'm sure..77p...still way below £1...and 83% down on the price before Brockham.Thats a strange definition of progress.
My only agenda is to reveal the reality of investing in this company..and forewarn new investors that it is toxic and based on essentially worthless assets.