Member Info for RayPointer

Yes, I don't think there are many successful traders although there are many who claim to be successful. I myself have never traded but ironically I am writing a trading program. Not to be used on Scancell I hasten to add. I think you are right. The LTHs are no doubt snapping up shares whenever there is any share weakness. I'm sure we will see fun and games from the MMs as shares become scarce.

I should think the sells that appear are for traders who bought at 12p and have placed limit trades at what they consider to be a resistance level. A tidy 20% profit and who can blame them. Myself, I want to see a 2000% profit LOL

Steve, I find this price action encouraging. Price has been pushing against that resistance level for over 2 days now. Hopefully it will go clear today and with tomorrow's news we should get a further boost. Seeing higher highs and higher lows after the Placing/OO is just what we need and so far we are seeing this.

I don't think it will have a big effect on the SP. However, it might just push us through the current resistance level and hopefully that level would now become support. But yes, I agree with you about the importance to Scancell. Should also make other Moditope patent applications easier to get approved.

Yes Inan. I too remember that RNS and thinking how unusual it was to be allowed to dose patients for 5 years before even the preliminary results had been published!

I think you two need to have a summit in Singapore to resolve your differences. I'll have a word with Donald to arrange it LOL

"makes this saga fascinating ... which is why i keep buying" My sentiments exactly. The news is going to come thick and fast (compared to previous years). So buy before the feeding frenzy

ONW Yes, there will be things going on behind the scenes that we don't yet know about. How much of the iceberg is above the surface we simply don't know. But, I believe, that it is entirely possible for the market to suddenly "get" Scancell and the herding instinct takes over. The triggering of the herding instinct obviously needs a catalyst and I think, at present, this is most likely to be trial results. Having said that, winning the grand challenge could also be that catalyst. Who knows with the AIM market. .

I agree with your comments ONW. Moditope complicated things and, for a while, Scancell didn't quite know how to progress. Too much science too quickly but what a problem to have! They have the strategy sorted now by progressing trails on all their products. I find it amazing that such a small company will, next year, have 3 products undergoing trails simultaneously. Of course, the really big one is Modi1. This has the potential to be truly groundbreaking. Lindy has pointed out on more than 1 occasion that Moditope does not require CIs to eradicate tumours. So if, as we all hope and expect, the Modi1 trial is a success then this is a quantum leap forward in the treatment of cancer. I think Lindy already knows this.

if you look at the 3 month chart you will see that around 14-15 is a resistance level. Each revisit to this level will weaken the resistance.

Great ball by ball commentary this morning.

Torquay, yes I agree with you. The market will find it difficult to value Scancell. In the coming months you will see bouts of buying followed by bouts of profit taking, I woundn't be surprised to see a spike before the Grand Challenge is announced. Then some profit taking, Some people will buy on spikes and then get disgruntled when they they have bought just as a bout of profit taking is about to happen, It's a share that is great for trading as well as a share for LTHs.

No worries. There's bound to be a passing Vogon ship to hitch a lift on!

Rat, I think LD has discovered the Babel Fish and hence is able to communicate with the white mice. The white mice are really running the show. Why do you think they are all surviving? All will be revealed at the next AGM when attendees with be issued with a Babel Fish.

Oh, and we have the confidence of those white mice, And, according to the "HitchHikers guide to the galaxy" white mice rule the universe.

Ruck I fully understand your remarks about the lottery. Very few people would risk buying half of the tickets. That is why I was conservative both on the percentage chances of success and the valuations. I think it is very difficult to value a company like Scancell because of all the variables involved and the fact we have multiple products. I think we can agree that the current SP does not come near to what it should be with all that is going on. For instance, if Scancell wins the grand challenge that would be the 2nd major endorsement by CRUK of Scancell's science. That alone could double the share price. Then we have a possible deal with BionTech which again could double the SP. So, we could see a SP in the range 50p - �1 range without any further trial results. Then if phase 1 is passed for ModI1 and SCIB2 there is further impetus. So, we are seeing an event driven situation which could finally see the SP getting ahead of itself as it did when moditope was announced. How do you put a value on Lindy saying she hadn't seen anything like this in 30 years (Moditope) or the results exceeded our best expectations (preliminary SCIB1 results)? You simply can't factor in such statements to a share price forecast. All you can say that Lindy has the confidence of a bunch of professors including one who works for BionTech and one who works for Genentech, so what Lindy says carries enormous weight.

Its all about the BOD's confidence of proving the efficacy. If they had serious doubts they would have sold the company for a knock down price long ago.

So my figures would appear to be very conservative. Very much worst case scenario. Put another way, if the BOD received an offer of �1 a share would they recommend acceptance to shareholders? I think it is a fair bet they would recommend rejection.

Ruck I am just using probabilities to come up with a fair SP. I suspect brokers would use similar methods, hence Panmure Gordon's price target of 68p based solely on SCIB1 trail results. Do you have a better method of valuing a company with 5 potential blockbusters? When Moditope was announced the market valued Scancell as high as 60p with no trail results. Now the market values it at 14p with a) 1 set of fantastic trail results b) 3 more planned trials c) A possible grand challenge win d) CRUK funding one of the trials e) A possible deal with Biontech f) A new platform just been announced g) 6 institutional investors - more than ever in the past! It is obvious to me that, for a company like Scancell, we cannot trust the market to give us a fair value.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/06/biotechvaluation.asp According to the above article: "As the drug moves through the development process, the risk decreases with each major milestone. The Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America reported in 2003 that drugs entering Phase I clinical trials have a 15% probability of becoming a marketable product. For those in Phase II, the odds of success rise to 30%, and for Phase III, they climb to 60%. Once clinical trials are complete and the drug enters the final FDA approval phase, it has a 90% chance of success. These improvements in the odds of success translate directly into stock value." This article also tells us how to calculate a drugs potential values once it has been approved and is being sold. We know that Scancell have no intention of marketing drugs themselves so perhaps we should replace these calculations with an estimated sale value of each of Scancell's drugs. So lets stick to clinical trials already carried out or planned. So if we value SCIB1 as being worth $1 billion if FDA approved, SC1B2 as $2 billion and Modi1 as $1 billion we get the total value of for SCIB1 $1 billion x 60% = .6 billion (assuming SC1B1 is now ready for a Phase 3 trial) for SCIB2 $2 billion x 15% = .30 billion (entering phase 1 next year) for ModI1 $1 billion x 15% = .15 billion (entering phase 1 next year This gives a total of 1.05 billion Then perhaps we should factor in a risk that although trials are successful, Big Pharma still show no interest (perhaps the obsession with CIs will continue). Even if we add a risk factor of 50% this still gives us around 0.5 billion and this equates to a share price of around �1 Note: This only takes into account trails that we know are planned. It does not take into account a) A probable ModI2 trail in 2020 b) A possible deal with BionTech c) The kudos of winniing the CRUK Grand challenge d) The 3rd platform announced at time of the placing/OO Obvious folks can put their own values on SCIB1/2 and ModI1 and also substitute their own values on the percentages that I have used which are probably too conservative. But this little exercise does show how undervalued Scancell is, and also how the potential value will grow as trials are carried out and are successful.