Member Info for Rambo23

Bella/ Bueneavista if it helps I put a question directly to senior management (I prefer not to say which on here but DM me if you wish) at the AGM to confirm an understanding on where AVA6000 was being manufactured. This was Switzerland. Now obviously there are likely many companies in that country who could do this but I find it interesting KBI bought selexis who AVCT already had a relationship with going back to 2019 as you pointed out. The KBI website has a lot of info and it's not unreasonable to put them in the mix as a possible supplier given their specialist service offering and skill set. I see this as a trail of breadcrumbs until something can be confirmed further. Good digging Bella as the selexis link you found helps so thank you.

Cybertron the answer is no still open but that only represents a % clients of IG not the wider market. No size indications either so the 'short' word does more harm than perhaps the reality of their positions which we will never know. Spud in a few weeks is more interesting.

For however many days running now there is yet again more chat about a placing on here than anything else and yet little on realistic alternatives.

1. If the company are confident of declaring a discovery in a few weeks time based on what they found last time why would they raise now? Instead declare a discovery raise at a much higher price and less dilution for all. Most would be content with that approach as they would be in the money.

2. The purchase of a rig changed the game here and means worst case they can lease that out and generate revenue via that. That is the insurance policy here noble don't have that luxuary.

3. Given the last raise was at 5p and many of those holders are still in waiting for the action I'm not sure another raise at these levels would go down well at all meaning more dilution for them and no drill turning. They need to deliver some progress with the drill bit which was the reason they raised in the first place.

4. Lastly any supportive warrant holders could equally step up before going to the market which is another option.

Time will tell how this plays out but raising just before drilling seems odd at these low levels when it could have been taken care of post Rig purchase IF even required. Lots of people talking about last time but this isn't last time is it so lets move on and consider the facts.....they have more data, own a rig, going back to the same area, are drilling on the preferred side of the fault. Market conditions are also different. Good luck to them. I hope they hit the jackpot and the story continues.

We just need to be patient now.

For perspective if we go back to the 10th July we got the RNS saying they bought a rig but we still had quite some time ahead before spud and for people to take positions, take profits go again etc etc which is exactly what has happened. July/ August are usually very quiet people are away on holidays etc liquidity is tighter. That all changes going into sept and volumes should pick up. We have had modest volumes and some sellers but so what, we don't even know who they are or why they have sold but can only speculate which doesn't really help as the answer is still we cannot be sure. I don't believe someone else's activity you don't even know should influence your investment into HE1 in this instance. Clearly the Noble raise more recently spooked a lot of people even though HE1 aren't drilling wildcats which Noble are. HE1 stated multiple times they are funded for the upcoming drill so the Noble events was all a negative distraction. The feedback from the company has been consistent and all the RNS recently have demonstrated solid progress is being made to spud in a few weeks, you can choose to believe that or the FUD elsewhere take your pick. The HE1 plan is being played out as I expect them to do. Yes it can be frustrating being passengers but that is normal when waiting for what feels like a long time but in reality is a few months. We are a couple of weeks away now.

From a TA perspective

RSI at 31 a low level (usually trades within 30-70 range)

Stochastic now in oversold territory below 20 (usually trades within 20-80 range)

20 Day EMA is 7.79p

50 Day EMA is 7.86p

Price now 6.9p

These 4 indicators alone tell you something. They can't predict the future but they can give you some useful information to aid decision making.

It was 7 weeks on Monday this week since the 10th July RNS and we still have a couple more weeks. When you consider that timeframe and the opportunity to buy and sell in that time are you surprised there has been a pullback. I expect this to rise again and for them to declare an initial discovery. When you then consider references to previous SPs highs on the last drill and the dilution since and people talking down with an SP prediction in the future they usually fail to tell you one key thing.....The Helium price has doubled since that era. So yes it is a fact the SP went to 28p previously it is a fact there was dilution but it's also a fact the Helium price has doubled. Now recalculate the numbers for a more informed answer.

The clock is ticking down now so finally after a long time since the last drill they can go and get some answers.

DYOR Not Advice

Turbot my reply was to provide a balance on an unsubstantiated point you made based on no facts. I wasn't angry. As you well know a lot of nonsense is posted on these boards. No need to make it personal. You are entitled to your opinion like anyone else but when you express them don't get offended when someone counters with a factual reply. Only TR1s will communicate any large buyers or sellers officially, outside that 5p placees taking profits or anyone else for that matter are explanations for the recent drop after a 100% rise! Lets move on.

Well well well one of the first posts this am and it is based on zero fact. We don't know who has sold what and when so why bother deliberately inflating a narrative that is completely unsubstantiated and imply it is one person when on probability alone that is unlikely. You even give them a name 'Mr Big' what a load of nonsense without any proof. It's also gone from 'selling' to 'sell off'. Utter garbage.

I think we will see a few late buys before the close, little stock on the offer at 7.3p now. Post the long weekend things will liven up and you are either in or out for this. There has been a decent amount of time now between news items for churn and a pullback which isn't a bad thing. Momentum will reverse as we get closer to spud. Worth a re-read of Keith Oz post from this am. Great strip log example as well which will help understand what HE1 will be getting from their wireline work in the coming weeks.

There is only 14 trading sessions until the 15th of September then we enter the Spud window. That isn't long now and news could drop anytime relating to any number of positive items. Could they surprise the market and start before the second half guidance? Not beyond the realms of possibility is it but TBC. I expect this to rally into spud and volumes pick up. Clock is now ticking. Buy the dip. DYOR

Question 26: Do you have definitive proof of the existence of a helium reservoir large enough to be commercially viable which you intend to target in the upcoming Rukwa drilling programme?

From previous drilling we have seen helium shows throughout the reservoir, although did not manage to retrieve a sample. We are optimistic that drilling at Tai-C will prove commerciality and are drilling Tai-C to prove the existence of helium.

Skippy - Since circa 10am all the other buys are less that the 7.9 large prints...

I disagree Skippy for example the first trade was traded at 7.9 and at the time the bid/ offer was 7.70-7.90. So to trade in that size (6 times the NMS) at the offer price if a sale doesn't add up for me. Therefore I think the 3 at 7.9 are buys. SP dropped to fill orders perhaps. Other sales traded lower than 7.9 was well. The 250k shapes at 13.12 look like a roll, one sell one buy.

Well done Blissful, that is exactly what is in play here. Some don't want to accept that or hear it. We are going back to Tai precisely because of what they learnt and found in the last drill. The helium isn't coming from the sky is it!

I think we need to be clearer one one aspect, a discovery. For me this is in 2 parts and always has been. Firstly they can declare a discovery with data from the logs and the HE1 sample that goes to the lab which is expected in the upcoming drill. Secondly a commercial discovery will require more work, testing and more kit and should be no surprise. I think declaring a discovery is like you say primarily subject to no operational risks but I expect a discovery to be made now they have the right kit for the job. The Commercial discovery depends on what the flow testing etc yields. It is worth noting that if they have already found 10% seeps in the license area you only need 0.3% for it to be commercial ie a low bar if you have already found seeps at higher grades of 2-3% etc or more. I believe this is why they are talking and preparing for production within 12-18months and as Skittish has pointed out the pads etc are many times larger than required for a single drill and a campsite so there is more to this. Do the work now whilst the weather is fair and the labour is available, drill and tick the boxes and then move to production in an expedited timeline. Funding won't be an issue if they deliver. The risk reward here on part one being achieved in a matter of weeks now is very attractive. DYOR.

Lastly you didn't mention Noble in your post which is a very good thing. There has been so much talk of their operation, where their rig is and all it does is digresses from our own campaign. I'm sure some of this is deliberate as some investors will be in both plays and therefore talking about it on HE1 chat in an unsubtle way but passing it off as relevant generates interest for them. It would be naive to think this isn't happening. They are drilling for the first time and have a lot more risk, they have had to re word several RNS for overstating their own project! Our primary focus should be on declaring a discovery at Tai not what they are doing miles away.

Donald.....No, we are in the middle of a cohort so will get updates on that once it is finished, the summer months are exactly that and it is generally quiet. Therefore positive news flow is better saved for Sept onwards imo. Interims are due at the end of Sept so I expect that will provide a broader overview. When the key news items land we want all hands on deck management and investor wise do we not. A couple more weeks and I suspect we will have lots more Info. I don't expect them to manufacture something for the sake of it.

Livedata look at it another way. When the deal was done with HCI could Avacta have raised that sort of money on an unsecured basis and reasonable commercial terms purely to support the P1A trial? Perhaps not. That is certainly my understanding from various discussions I have had on this issue. Therefore buying a revenue generating business with a large chunk of that money might have been the key to clinching that size deal knowing P1A was going to take time and money. This meant they could build out a revenue generating business whilst the P1A trial continued. Clearly it is an asset that can be sold in the future at the right time likely on a value accretive basis. AS clearly aware of this hence the AGM comments and it is a chip to play in the game in the future.

So if we hadn't been able to raise that sort of money in one go where would we be now? It essentially provided an 18 month + runway to progress the trial and grow a diagnostics business. Personally I think we would be worse off without that money because having it all to spend on the AVA6000 trial was never an option as it was too risky for a lender. Additionally I'm not sure Management could have spent more money to speed up the AVA6000 trail as the passing of time was required to jump through the hoops and prove up the MOA etc etc. I'm not a massive fan of diagnostics but I can see it has served a purpose. Depending on how long we are independent it might also open up some options to create decent value despite it not being the main event. Lastly imagine being a £300m mkt cap company with little to no revenue (ie no diagnostics) and how exposed you would become. It offers some protection in that sense. If we get a positive P1A readout which I expect us to then all is to play for. Get to P1B and the excitement really begins

Two 314k shapes look like T20 rolls

I'm not so sure with links to Noble. They are two financially independent companies just happen to be drilling in the same rift valley. There was a collaboration agreement to share a rig where HE1 would drill first. That isn't now happening and if there was a chance Noble used the HE1 Predator it now isn't as they have the drilled and will cold store it. It therefore isn't clear what if any collaboration agreement there is with Noble. It's possible that means sharing appraisal kit nothing more but that is just an example of a nuance.

Clearly timelines to drilling are key here otherwise they could share a rig and drill before the wet season. I can't see the benefit of waiting for Noble as for example if they did drill first and found nothing the HE1 SP would get hit as well so any raise in the future made more difficult. First mover advantage is key here inmo more so as we had helium shows and they think they can get a discovery. The risk of drawing a blank is mitigated for HE1 as we own the rig and can lease it out for geothermal projects etc etc to generate revenue. This isn't a first date it is a third so just get on with it. Long lead items or BH Mud kit more likely a reason for mid sept chat.

Exactly Sinequanon I expect Lorna B to under promise and over deliver here. Clearly she has already factored in contingency hence the messaging. Funny a few weeks ago we had no rig at all and there it is sat on the well pad and we own it. Excellent job!

Great to see the new post of the Rig up on Twitter. What a beast. A day closer to Spud and with real progress being made. FUD merchants being ignored my end. This rig capability is a game changer vs the old mineral rig that is better suited for making holes to plant potatoes. Well done HE1

RogerJolly - just bored of reading about opinions on who trusts who which clogs up the board and less about HE1 and the upcoming drilling which is far more exciting I'm sure you would agree.

While the pointless battle of the egos and groups continues this morning the most useful analysis / post in the last 2 days is from Skittish see his two posts from yesterday 14:44. Ignore the rest.