RE: Keep building or stop eating?13 Dec 2020 11:20
I have never painted a 'rosey' picture in terms of businesses exposure to delays at ports. I have said previously that I hope the supply chains hold up for Sig, in the same way we all hope they do for UK business. Ireland and the rest of the EU will be similarly concerned.
This is not an overnight issue, and govt. has been preparing for it - a logistical issue of the movement of goods both ways.I do not know, but commentators think there will be perhaps 3 months of congestion ( not necessarily supplier backlog ) at ports. That may be optimistic, or not. And it is evident that the biggest headache will be for the 'just in time' manufacturers.
One would think the various components of the huge construction industry have taken such action as they can to diminish or even overcome the disruption at ports - but in any event a position will be reached when they have supplies in stock, and are working to reducing lead times on further availability beyond what is immediately required. It is not beyond the wit of the industry.
If you recall, there was ( though it was the saying rather than the doing ) similar reaction amongst investors on the surprise Brexit referendum result, before recovery. There is usually over-reaction to these things. The answer probably lies somewhere in the middle of the extremes, and the ports issues will translate into a way of working to new timescales for business, and I believe that any disruption from any unpreparedness will be temporary. In fact, it seems that increased traffic at ports is as a result of business stocking up.
Sigs ( and their competitors and customers ) exposure to materials delays is not excessive ( previous post on what they have said) Pure logistics and forward planning, nothing more. And if customers have been preparing and stocking up during the second half, as one would reasonably expect from responsible people, it should reflect well in the trading update in January, along with such beneficial changes as the CD and R/Francis set up have made. The update is the important issue for Sig, not the fact of a free trade deal or not.
On a personal level, you may be presuming too much. But I did buy Friday. I think in due course 30p will be OK. Like many, I buy and sell.