Member Info for ralarcon

I've taken a look at the 4hr candle sticks and there is strong support at 134p based on the fibonacci retracement based on 38.2% candle.

look at the trend do a bit of reading and then comment. SP don't go up in straight line!

RisklsReward; sorry yes we are still in an ascending triangle. You can probably go down to 125p - 128p and still be ascending (just)

I've just had a look now and we are pretty much still on trend....hugging my support line which for today I was expecting 139p lowest which considering the spread is ok.

I was estimating lowest of 141 all week as we have been hovering above the support line last 2 weeks but as long as we don't drop below it the there is no panic.

No nice to see red on any day, but it is part of any SP specially after such a solid last week.

I am surprised how predictably the SP has behaved last 2 weeks. I wish it was possible to share images in this boards. I estimated an upward support trendline at the end of Feb, and so far the SP has been consistently just bouncing off it.

What that means is even on the red days we have consistently seen higher lows for 2 and a bit weeks running; with expectations of news in coming days/week I think that is likely to continue.

If it does, then 142p would the lowest we should see as a finish and 151p by the end of the week. These are support levels no resistance levels; obviously the SP can finish much higher in any one day.

I could well be wrong but wish I had trusted my charting skills two weeks ago! hindsight is an exact science.

discussions about the industry players is important as it gives confidence to the way testing is going and potential we are talking about for gdr specially in the US. Sounds like 3 extra 000 at the end of GDRs overall contracts is not unrealistic.

without further news £1.70 would be a good week...may see higher through the week but £1.60-£1.70 finish is my prediction.

side effects is very common with the annual flue jab; but no big deal is made out of it. People surely that have kids experienced the days after they had their vaccines; it can be pretty bad. It is natural reaction for many and not reason to be put off.

The risk to the SP dropping depends on how much of the sales expectations is already built in to the SP.

Looking at the historical value I thinks around 40p; so if the 26th does not deliver further confidence then this likely drops to 90-100p (over sold) before recovering to 100-120p.

I don't think we need huge sales numbers but at least indication of orders in the pipeline for the SP to continue to rise steadily.

Big Sales news and it will be a different ball game, up and up.

The charts mainly reflect information known right now but also reflect market behavior based on what news people expect or speculate about. An RNS reinforces a trend, but brings new information which needs to be reassessed. An RNS or other news media/events can completely change the trend.

What is difficult to know is how much of the current SP includes future sales expectations; that is why even positive news lead to a drop in SP when people expect say 40% increase in profits but say only get 20%.

I think sales are already factored in to some extent but like myself the blocker is risk perception; once sales are confirmed then it will shoot up due to reduced risk rather than the initial numbers of sales.

Any sales will indicated that the product does have a level of demand and that likely will continue to grow.

The numbers will provide information to speculate how much demand is likely to get and a new SP ceiling will be establish...until a new RNS either confirms or misses the new expectations.

SP is always is ahead of the market.

regression coefficients, r-squared, beta...I like to stick to the simple stuff.
I think those are best used for funds that track and index.

In this case for GDR I see a bullish triangle (google it), with a break needed around 155p and if it sticks then 230-240p is on the cards IMO not long after.

Had a look at my chart today again based on Friday finish and assuming next week we finish near 155p, then 230 - 240p is on the cards within a month.

We seem to have more of a clear bullish triangle pattern than a channel as Zak uses.

Charts don't predict the future; they simply tell you what has happened.

You can deduce from it some level of market behavior and assume different cases going forward. The strength of chart analysis is that it can lead to self full-filling prophecy; because many will be using the same techniques and data points. That is why most use the same moving averages 20, 50, 200, same RSI, MACD, etc...

Very simplistic Example, many will be looking at the 20day crossing above the 50day or the 50day crossing the 200day as a buying signal for an upward trend; but so are many other people, a mass of people then buy in which causes the SP to go up. But the rally then looses momentum for many reasons and when the 20day crosses below the 50day many will start to sell which then drives the SP down. If every used a custom average then the chart analysis would not be as effective.

Similar when the SP goes sideways and support and resistance lines are created; people will set their entry based on the support line which causes the SP to go up and many set exit at the resistance level which reverses it.

Obviously there are other external factors and news that come in to play that break those behaviors and add the unpredictability.

To be fair ODX support line is also trending up but their ceiling I believe is due to the contract news that was let out by the Financial Times a few weeks back which means currently their upside is largely priced in their SP. It wont break 100p proper until the contract and it details are announced.

GDR SP I believe is held back by the history of last year and people are being more cautious; at least that is what has stopped me from getting carried away and topping up at this levels. If GDR had delivered on some of their expectations last year for sales (June 2020!) and approvals I would be going all in. The BC partnership is what makes the difference this time round but like me I'm sure many on healthy profit/average are looking at more concrete news to take another big stake.

I called him optimistic last time; this time looks like he has toned it down a bit.

210-220 within a month is realistic; I would go higher if the 26th meeting delivers.

not like ODX; the support line here has been consistently trending up and looking to be above 150p next week.
We may even touch 170p momentarily but I don't expected to be sustained just yet. Unless some RNS causes a good break.

I did not see that finish price...I was looking for that finish price to confirm support level.
Looking for the 10 day and 20 day ExpAvge to remain above the 50day ExAvge.

149p still keeps the 20day above the 50day so not bad week but 10day just cut below both suggesting we lost momentum towards the end of the day but still a strong finish to the week.

Unless there are some negative news; I think this should remain in the 140s and above.

I'm not charting expert but so far my trend lines have been pretty good for the last 3 weeks...better than Zak M's!

151p finish and we have a new support level in the 140s to build on next week.
170p next week is possible even with no further news.

next support level would be 142p to push for 170p next week.

I have some cash waiting to drop on this but the 114p buy in is not coming!
I am not listening to nathan again.

(sarcasm)