Member Info for raharh

This could get silly.

More UK PIs getting on board now the news is crossing boards etc.. so in at £1+ and sticky hands and less shares in circulation.
US PIs on pink sheet in demand today after last night and on
Full listing next week.
Bitcoin inexorably climbing at the moment with no sign of any pause for breath

Definitely going to be an interested end to the week and next week could be, well, i may not get any work done....

And we havent even got to new machines yet ....

Tillywhiz - so good to see you and Lil are doing well. I actually jumped over board on Monday (sorry) as thought EUA would go sideways for a week - I was originally going to sell out and get more EUA today with the profits - i have now re-adjusted my strategy and am going to remain an Argonaut for me - have bagged once already this week and £1.50 will give me another.

Theme continues though with good ol' Jason and the Argonauts - they had the Golden Fleece, this honestly feels like we are doing the fleecing at the moment - the legs on this over the next few months look amazing.

For those under 40 look up Jason and the Argonauts - one of the original fantasy epics!

balman - not a cross ramp - we all need comparators

Would be good to understand if there is now an increase in volume in the US - SP may not move as different company with different dynamics (I dont know it) but we are tracking 15m on the pink sheets - it is whether OTCQB drives the volume (and therefore demand) whilst sticky hands remain in the UK.

Would be good to keep an eye on that, every day is a school day

So what has happened today?

Some people will say it’s a retrace and to be expected but I don’t think so. Last night the US listed ARB (ARBKF) was trading at $1.82 (up 7c on previous close) when BTC hit £40k and the main trading exchange went down. This has happened before when new highs have been met and sell orders have been hit. The market got spooked and ARBKF fell to $1.40 in 25 minutes and closed at $1.41. We have been following the US market all week. BTC also fell from $40k to $37.8k in the same period.

The selloff of ARBKF in the US was, IMO, mainly due to panic and we need to remember that these are not institutions – the pink sheets are mainly PI invested stocks (watch Wolf of Wall Street)

So I expected to open £1 to £1.10 which would match the $1.41 and slightly below yesterday’s open – I said this last night on the forum – this isn’t me going ‘look at me’ it just was an obvious reaction by UK MMs to marry up. But it is just a technical blip.

So those saying £1.50 - £2 would happen today were on the money before the exchange went down, something no one could have foreseen so no point mocking them - $1.82 is £1.34 – we were on our way due to US buying demand.

So where do we go from here?

We are already back at £1.18 and BTC is at $39.8k as I write this. The US PIs will reflect and I expect them to jump back in at 14:30 and it will rise, hopefully back to $1.82 and beyond, we will probably see this benefit on Monday.

On Monday expect the OTCQB listing – increase as a result – re-rate towards RIOT – 3x current SP?
ARB tweets x 2 – one to clarify listing process is ongoing and one (in their own fantastic style) telling us to keep the faith
January results – BTC equivalent closer to $40k per BTC – more margin
February – 25% more mining machines coming on line – more BTC per month
March – Full month operation of new machines

I am sitting tight until March to see what happens / what I can see happening after that but as things stand there is nowhere else I can see with better returns. The only major risk I think I could call out is BTC crashing back down to sub $30k – but I don’t see this and neither do the experts and financial houses – in part because the more stimulus that is pumped into the world economies the more that devalues the dollar so BTC is digital gold that is not affected by this.

This is all just my view and I will not post again today as I have taken up my word allocation :-)

Sorry for the long post but been reflecting this morning and feel I need to exercise my soul!

Just to declare my position : I started looking at ARB over Christmas and invested over Monday and Tuesday and have 14000 shares at an average of 50p.

I wanted to offer this up to any new investors that may not have the full picture I have gleaned (at least my full picture). There are some extremely knowledgeable posters on here and a lot of information out there in general.

Today is a ‘blip’ IMO so let me set out what I see over the coming weeks / months

1. US listing is key – the US values Crypto more than the UK and there is a bull run on the share as it is (still) 3 – 4x undervalued compared to US peers (RIOT being one)
2. Moving from Pink sheets to OTCQB will unlock a raft of online investors who don’t have access in the US at the moment and raise the profile as well as credibility as it moves up the exchange tier
3. There are a few more americans than brits ….
4. The shares in distribution are fixed at c.300m – that is not a large number of shares to distribute In itself this is providing momentum in my view this week and will continue in to next week as the listing happens.

There are then two other key factors:

1. More mining servers are coming on line in February – increased capacity means more bitcoins per month
2. Bitcoin is hitting all-time highs – there is common consensus in the financial services industry it will continue its bull run and some eventually see 130k+ (JP Morgan) – we are at 38k at the moment

Bitcoin value is the interesting one, as ARB mines BTC each month and sells some down to pay expenses it retains a wallet of BTC. From the last RNS update which we receive monthly:

96 BTC equivalents were mined delivering £1.63m revenue – at £40k BTC this would be £3.8m which is where BTC roughly is. After paying expenses the BTC holding increased by 31 BTC (so only 65 sold down).

Obviously with the increase in BTC value less will need to be sold down in Jan so a win win / less BTC to fund the operation needs to be sold, more are held and their value is higher.

Finally, ZCash is a bit of a side show, but if the value increases it is just additional margin and the value of ZCash is increasing.

Reading the OTCQB process:

https://www.otcmarkets.com/files/OTCQB%20Application%20Guide%20for%20International%20Companies.pdf

It is the final step before paying the fee and listing. Still PM over there - so pay fee and then list - probably Monday I would say so if the Coinbase outage has spooked a few and nothing comes tomorrow just ride it out for a day - after all we have had a good four days!

Just posted on stocktwits

https://backend.otcmarkets.com/otcapi/company/financial-report/268005/content

Does this mean tomorrow?

I agree Bitcoin makes a huge difference but the US listing seems to have had the more material impact this year as the US holds Bitcoin in higher regard if you look at counterparts such as riot. So US sees this as cheap and hence heavy buying over there. Tonight is a blip and a rest might do us all good tomorrow!

Stevek
It has been lagging the previous day in the US all week. No one knows the opening SP but I would assume the MMS would take the bid down as there will be an opportunity if US closes below $1.75 where it was at the UK close and some will sell. The supply and demand are linked and if US don’t need as many shares as they have gathered some tonight it may have an impact.

Ideally I would like to see the listing RNS as that would allow Argo on to the main market where the other miners do not seem to have been impacted as much.

All opinions.

Whytry. May be because ARBKF in US is pink sheets so PI dominated and more likely to panic sell? Feels like tomorrow may be a write off to hold above £1 / £1.10 until US gets a groove back on tomorrow after close.

Just gone post close - £1.255

LSE is £1.23 at the mo - close price crossing - £1.23 / £1.255 - seen both on google - wont matter if we can hit $2 tonight :-)

ARB close £1.23
ARBKF at $1.75 at time of close (£1.29)
Bitcoin @ $39k

Today we gapped up almost to the penny on the climb in the US after the UK close so I will be watching the $1.75 and as long as we finish higher another gap up on open - and Bitcoin - surely $40k cannot come overnight.

Having bagged this week when I bought Mon / Tues this is truly a good place to be in.

GLA

3million already traded in US and the real rise happened yesterday after the UK market closed (1.11 - 1.50) .........

This is so predictable now and should continue until the majority of shares have gone over to US. UK raises to 90% of US close in the morning, people sell who are in profit (good luck - we all have exit points and some are in at 5p). The MMs collect shares all morning. Drop the bid about 14:00 to scare some and get a few more and then sell them in to the US at an increase. UK market closes pretty flat on open (about 105p) and then they up the bid in the US as demand is there and once they run out drop it a little to get some of the early US investors to sell at a good return and raise it towards the end of the day in the US.

Next morning we gap up and it repeats.

It has happened all week and about 15m shares per day trading in the US (some are recycling over there) - with 280m shares in issue this could take at least another two weeks unless we get main market listing where it could go quicker (and go higher quicker). We were 75% up in the US at one point last night ($1.59) so if the demand is still there $2+ tonight is not out of the question.

In for the journey now until it reaches fair value (and no I dont know what that is - I will decide when the cycle starts to plateau). Currently I have bagged since Monday and can see another bag in the next three days.

None of this takes into account rising bitcoin holding above 37k now and the new machines.

What a new year treat for everyone who has entered.

Also worth watching - it has all the points in :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yXHFOiZdzpo&feature=youtu.be

I am too from EUA - I sold them all by Tuesday not expecting anything but a retrace / sideways tracking this week with the Russian holiday so no expectation of RNS. I know people preach patience on EUA but paint is drying so need the DFS as soon as to add something but I thought next week at earliest. My plan was to sell and go back in on Friday - now I am wondering whether to slice some and go back in or just stay the course fully here.

Anyway, back to ARB, BTC just breached £37k .......

Kiwi

I just wanted to say a huge thankyou. I got here via some chat on CPI that took me to BLU where your chat brought me here before Christmas and I researched over Christmas (didnt know what a bit miner was at that point ! visions of the seven dwarves and all that) and learnt a lot and then say that with bitcoin price, new machines and US listing this was worth getting into.

Got in on Monday and Tuesday - just over 14,000 shares at average of 50.5p and will probably bag tomorrow, not looking back at shoulda coulda woulda - bought when I did. Planning to review end of march when machines fully operational and US listing completed to main indexes but even I am getting jelly legs watching this rise - kudos to the 5p crew!

There are some great posters on here (Phoebus amongst them) who are helpful and the board is not littered with the usual abuse to the same degree as other boards. So a great board at the moment.

Anyway - thank you - genuinely - I know some people dont like shares been highlighted on other boards but I dont have a problem as a side chat done in the right way and for the right reasons as it helps investors look elsewhere. It is still their decision whether to buy or not.

Great board and GLA on whatever you decide on here - Bitcoin 37k+ by morning?!

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=arbkf

This just gets better - when LSE closed US was $1.11 so if we can get $1.20+ that should just be the leg up needed tomorrow.

$1.25 as I type!