Member Info for raharh

As it has been a quiet night I have just tried to do some maths – would be grateful for feedback as to what is fundamentally missing but I am hazarding where we may get to this month and then would welcome feedback as to whether the market has made this assessment and it is priced in or they just don’t get it. I am almost ignoring peers as it is easy to get carried away with a value based on that sometimes.

I am assuming ZCASH increase has no effect as ZCASH in %age terms has increased less than BTC since end of December – as all ZCASH is converted to BTC I am assume a flat conversion in my reasoning which either way can be sensitized with the other variables.

So in December 96 BTC mined at a revenue of £1.63m and at 60% margin.
40% of 1.63m is £652k which should be fairly fixed operating costs.
Leaves £978k profit banked.

Assumptions for January:
BTC mined : 100 (conservative with a week of the additional machines?)
BTC price : £26k (equates to $35k so again conservative)
Total revenue : £2,600k – Fixed costs of £652k
Margin of £1.948k (75%)
So in one month due to BTC an additional £1m profit banked.
This before new machines in Feb. and doesn’t take in to account any further BTC rises beyond $35k (currently $39k)
How do you then value this - do we think this is priced into current SP?

Feedback welcome to distract us from a minute by minute BTC price update and happy to be told the workings are too simple!

Smiler - are you stalking my strategy! I was all out week last Monday to go in here to think I would get back in EUA before sale and accepting i may miss DFS RNS - not missed either yet and now looks months away due to holding RNS so timing could be on our side.

If not - so what - I think this could bring better returns anyway.

So there was a bit of a cloud at 4:30 today due to no rockets but what about the aftershow.

US closes at $1.62
BTC currently above $37k
Great part of Q&A from a personable and charismatic CEO - other CEOs should take lessons.
To wrap it off - just seen ZCASH over $120

See you all tomorrow!

Albert - get that but spending a long time trying to figure it out never seems to get any agreement or actually achieve anything. The SP is where it is as a result of all the factors that drives a client to sell or request a buy. It wont matter when BTC gets to $42k+ again and the new machines are on line - a lot of the current people may not need to figure it out and may just decide they have made enough and can move on to have the same debate on another share!

I never really understand this conversation of buys v sells.

Its a trade isn't it - passing from one hand to another at a price - so the person that has just bought it now holds it to make a profit (or not) and the one that has sold it has cashed out.

If people are continuously trying to sell, isn't that where a SP falls as the market has too much supply, and it goes up where the market needs to generate supply for anyone wanting to buy. If the MMs have enough shares and want no further exposure they stop buying and the SP falls to generate a selling demand for them. Surely that's the basics.

I do see an awful lot of arguments about this (amongst other things) - the share has just changed hands for a price hasnt it?

Anyway US up $0.10 since, we closed. BTC just breached $36k - hopefully it can hold and go on overnight and 8am will put a smile back on most Argonauts faces (except that Gibbins guy - he has sold apparently!)

Let's admit - we all expected some reaction - not because we really were going to sell at 14:30 (were we!) just some excitement.

Well ZCASH now over $115 - will that do for today?

Log off - watch the US rise into the night and fall back before the close, go to bed and wake up hoping BTC is still above $34k and I will see you all tomorrow :-)

Amnesia - when I expanded the graph due to the growth it skewed and so I scrolled back to the peak at the start and didnt spot that.

Apologies - I will get back in my box - but its still good it is going up!

Amanesia - are you looking at the Binance chart? If so, that is BTC equivalent and so is relevant to the BTC price at the time. So when BTC was lower ZCASH in relative terms was higher (as you could buy more BTC for the dollar value) - but the dollar value was lower.

In dollar value it is the highest it has been since 2nd November 2016 after it dropped from $3k launch on 28th October in two days to below $100 - that is good as it is 20% of the ARB revenue and a hidden gem if ZCASH continues to rise - especially if it can have a significant short term bull run whilst BTC takes breath - thereby converting to more BTC.

https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/zcash

Agreed - can if BTC holds here whilst ZCash rallies then Argo actually get more BTC for their buck at the moment as they convert to BTC as I understand it. So let BTC consolidate this month and ZCash continue to rally.

Will review at end of March based on where BTC is and what the full month of March operational update shows with all machines in full flow and decide whats next, but two much in the next 10 weeks to consider any other course of action for me.

Having said that, if US takes this to $20 I may change my mind (but they wont!)

Ian

To take this back I did not expect a massive raise today - why would access in the US to more investors uprate the UK this morning. It is positive as there will now be more investors in the US exposed to ARB and therefore potentially more buying pressure. More buying pressure will push up the SP. Will this happen? I do not know but we will find out over the coming days and definitely not before 14:30 when the US investors who have not had access to ARB now have.

It also provides greater credibility (like upgrading from AIM to full LSE market) to the company. One thing I havent discovered is whether there are OTCQB tracker funds in the US, just not looked, but if there is there will be buying pressure from those funds also.

So it is positive in the sense as it was the when the pink sheet listing opened - will it have the same effect, I dont know. People can argue how much of the 10 fold increase is due to pink sheets and how much to BTC price between them - no one really knows.

And I will not be disappointed if we dont get a 30% gap up over night - the answer to that will be known soon enough and I have not been invested in a share that has made the journey from OTCPNK to OTCQB before.

Lets wait and see. GLA.

Warrants expiring so exercised and money on balance sheet and SP holding up to the issues earlier this week. But that’s not the point. We have a cutting edge technology company with a CEO who communicates. Name me any more CEO last that tweet like Argo does and keeps shareholders informed. US listing, a master stroke in the making for shareholder value. Intelligent RNS on Monday after BTC drop about early machines. Modern communication used properly to support the shareholders and someone you can put on Bloomberg.

In two weeks the SP has more than doubled with two items out of there control in the coin exchange outage and BTC retrace and three warrant issues due to expiry to secure finances.

If I was not convinced before I am now.

Someone said; it’s going to be an interesting month

Not kidding! And it’s only the 12th!!

So we close at £1.01 when US is at $1.43 and BTC at $34.5k

The US is definitely putting in a lot of leg work on this at the moment - if they climb again we can gap up and then we need to hold our number for the day and not let our 'over the pond' fellow argonauts down.

RNS on OTC listing would be good tomorrow to consolidate above this level but it will come when it comes.

Also, as an aside, I am looking forward to the January operational update now based on more machines in last week (small impact).

Re-read the JCapital BTBT story - truly astonishing

Agent - where did you see that ? I thought the tweet simply said we will update the market via RNS - cannot remember them saying it will be 7am. It should be when it has to be even if intraday RNS is needed.

I agree AgentB

Just watched the interview and I think he comes across very well. They had an energy angle, if he doesnt speak to it he doesnt get the interview but he broadened to crypto in general which spoke to his expertise - talked about OTCQB filing and so for the audience this was good. Those that know crypto will look, esp. if they are in RIOT / MARA etc.. and those that dont may look also.

By following their lead he gets a return invite as things grow and more great exposure on the other side of the pond.

It's great - we take the pain and they get the gain.

$1.26 when we closed, lets see where the US closes and how BTC performs overnight - both up I hope and then the listing RNS at 7am will do just nicely.

Phoebus - agree $1.99 was the high - but look at the chart for last Thursday in US - it settled at $1.82 until the exchange went down. I dont usually look at the spikes as they last five minutes or so. Equally UK got to £1.43 last week so we are in a good place.

I just look at the settled trading in the day and ignore early mornings (here and in the US) as spikes and dips happen (like today)

So first tranche of warrants have hit the market (second on Wednesday) and BTC was being bashed overnight. Let it all flush through this week.

Will be some shares for the MMs to get rid of so it may take a few days from todays traders, warrants today and wednesday to be sold on to stickier hands. It would be good if we could recover above 110p for 14:30 so the US is not as spooked and BTC can get above $36k where it was last Thursday.

Remember - before the exchange went down the US was happily buying at $1.82 - thats £1.35 without the RNS today.

Last Thursday we were sat at £1.10 highs until the US opened and pushed us to £1.25 - BTC was $36.5
Currently £1.05, BTC at $35.5k - RNS - early mining now going to happen in January

Nothing has really changed, chill and wait for the OTC re-rate and RIOT catch up, best thing to do after weekend was to set your alarm for 9am so you didnt see the first hour today !

What a difference a week makes. On Monday, still slightly under the radar and an excellent board with some excellent posters where you could ask questions and get answers.

One week of a rise that everyone could see happening when you looked at the situation with BTC and the US listing and now the board has descended / been invaded.

The rise took everyone's breath away, the speed was quicker than expected, but it has happened.

It is the one blight that happens everytime on LSE where insults, noise and deliberately aggressive views with no backing is thrown about to flood the board and incite a response on the board of any share that is either popular or on the up, suddenly everyone is an expert, it just becomes facebook for kids.

I wish you all the best in the coming weeks.

If you are invested good luck. If you took profits and are out, well done, that is the game. If you are not invested then there are more productive ways to spend Friday evenings.

GLA - looking forward to an RNS next week and a steady rise towards £2 myself. BTC holding up well and as long as it keeps above $40k I don't see and issue, we are mining at higher margins and institutions buying BTC makes it stickier.

Potentially further fire for Bitcoin with a new Biden stimulus on the cards:

https://www.coindesk.com/why-joe-bidens-3t-stimulus-package-could-add-fuel-to-bitcoins-rally