Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Daily patterns here are perplexing, spread is all over the place. Three trades done at the same time with one a sell and one a buy? Some kind of robot game being played here. ZAR continues to fall...

Just looking at the few details they have released so far they are looking at tripling EBITDA for a 60% increase in market cap. I think if they get this deal done at a reasonable cost of debt the SP will f-l-y. The potential to increase the dividend is huge. Don't forget Rusty owns 6.4% which is worth nearly $20m, he's not going to anything to reduce the value of his holding. Great time to be in suspension anyway, markets took a beating today. Good weekend all.

Guess PAF couldn't be beaten down anymore eh Eish? Every metal down today on this trade war business PAF holding up well though everything has gone quiet. Only 4 blue trades showing, not to be believed

I hope you are right shareaction. The problem with a rights issue is that they are expensive if they are underwritten, at least 5% of total capital raised and sometimes more. However in this case maybe they wouldn't need underwriting if they did a combination placing and rights issue. They have a circa 50% institution/ shareholder base, that may be an advantage. And markets at around record highs may offer some flexibility. Either way I'm looking forward to seeing the prospectus, hopefully Rusty has managed to flush out a truly distressed seller and is getting a great deal.

Hey James, If they can get through this debt and equity raise can't imagine why they would want to. Everything they need they can get on AIM, they have already proved they can raise debt and equity at competitive rates. I know the usual arguments about getting more interest from funds etc but the SP seems to be doing just fine and being listed on AIM or the main market is not going to change their ability to pay dividends.

Increasing EBITDA by 289% for a less than 100% increase in market cap is an intriguing proposition. It was still looking healthy at 5% yield before the halt, hopefully the placing price is set not too far from the current level. It will be interesting to see the rate they get on the new finance, it should give an indication of the quality of the assets. Immediately EPS accretive. Hopefully gives a nice kick to the quarterly dividend.

Well they are certainly ambitious. My eyes nearly popped out when I saw the size of the new debt facility and the $225m placing. Looking forward to more details around the deal

The main thing is the bots bought a touch below 8 today and you could have sold for 7.80. The JSE listing is up a few percent today and currently at a 4 month high but I guess this reflects the ZAR weakness over the same period.

Eish I'm pretty happy with PoG at around 1300 and ZAR at 13.3. Let them both grind away there for a while, its a good combo for cash generation at Elikhulu. Seems like the brokers have lost interest, Peel Hunt looks to be permanently under review and apart from Numis which has a fairly lofty 16p target none of the others have updated for at least 9 months. Consensus is still showing a dividend yield of 7.75% this year and leverage of 2x. Both are way off.

Hey JD, all this publicity is great for cyber companies. Events this like this (which seem to be taking place on a daily basis) must be very motivating for companies to firstly ensure their data is adequately protected (Midgard) and secondly be comfortable that their protection is robust and effective (First Base). Unfortunately Falanx's response consultancy is tiny so they are unlikely to win any revenue from events like this directly, but more businesses will spend money on preventing breaches rather than enduring fines, falls in share prices and costly emergency security consulting after breaches take place. Well that's what I'm banking on anyway.

Everything has a price but I can't see it happening. SA miners are desperate to sell not buy, with the exception of Sibanye which is maxed out on debt and will have its hands full now with the acquisitions of the last few years. There has been zero interest from foreign companies in SA given the uncertain political environment and the long list of other problems the nation is facing. https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/mergers-and-acquisitions-provide-lifeline-for-sas-platinum-sector-12501360

I can't imagine Samancor would agree to their processing plants being acquired by a competitor. I think a union between Samancor western limb ops and Tharisa would make more sense given they are neighbours and the SDO plants have capacity which could be used to process Tharisa ore. Although Tharisa's strategy seems to be to go it alone with some signification investments in both chrome and PGM recovery planned for the next 2 years. The chrome market seems to be improving along with most other metals impacted by Chinese supply cutbacks

The bots are messing with us

Been pretty dull of late, volume has slowed to a trickle compared May. Dropping the price has certainly spiced things up a bit more with both buyers and sellers tempted. There is no spread on trades of 100k shares which is quite unusual.

Nice rise this morning, I see a few jumped in at 1.28. Looks like this little debacle is behind us.

I took a few more as well this morning Visitor. Basket today matches the highest ZAR price achieved since Jan 2015. On a quarterly basis it�s also not far off the peak. The price in both ZAR and USD terms has been steadily increasing since the first half of 2016. This is at a time when production and recoveries are ramping up. There is plenty of upside with 3 Echo modules to go, we are already seeing the benefits the first 2 are having on recoveries, production and costs. I believe Liberum�s 2020 forecast EBITDA of $32m reflects the full year impact of 3 Echo modules on production, recoveries and operating costs. In one month time that will be a one year forward cash flow of around >$20m (after tax and capex) on a market cap of $67m. You don�t see that much FCF on that kind of yield very often. The biggest risk for me is the host mine supply, I don�t think that there is much of a ROM stockpile and they don�t seem to be able to rely on the historic tailings to make up any shortfall. The chrome market doesn�t seem particularly strong and since Samancor went private we have no visibility of their production, profitability or future strategy. It�s hard to see 10+ years of operations without having this visibility, although management seem fairly confident of 78koz for the next ten years. That�s over $200m of cash flow in 10 years at current prices.

It seems to be stuck in a range, buy as close to 7 as possible when gold/ZAR moves are unfavourable, sell as close to 7.50 on days like today when POG ZAR is positive. Looks like the bots are driving this. I'm not a trader so no point in worrying too much about these random moves. Haven't seen PAF get on the leader board for a while, good to see, even though it partly seems down to manipulating the spread.

Thought it might be a bit of a 'risk on risk off' type movement but with it down today in a risk off market should see it testing 13.30 over the next couple of days. I'm pretty happy with gold tightly range bound around 1300, could be worse, if you cant make money at that price then you pack it in like Evander

Thanks for sharing elrico. Looking forward to some more contracts wins. Hopefully we get a strong update next month which will reassure investors the business is generating cash.

Might be another banana skin here. The fact that the RNS wasn't issued first thing this morning suggests that it wasn't finalised by Friday evening, which means they were still working on it over the weekend. Which is not good.