Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Another meaningless close, went into extended auction for a UT and bizarre buy for 8.50 after the close.

9 trades in 5 hours! No one's selling anymore. Looks like recent volumes were due to PIC buying, I wonder who sold them all those shares?

Chairman picked up £25k in shares, good to see. Just in time for the divi

In a generally sluggish market, this has been a significant tender opportunity that both Capita and Serco were bidding for (Babcock pulled out of bidding in 2016), albeit one that was subject to repeated delays. We believe that this contract was in the bid pipeline of both Capita and Serco at c£500m, implying potential for c£50m p.a. in revenues i.e. +1-2% to group sales. While Capita have acknowledged the contract win, they have not provided any more detail at this stage. This contract win was not reflected in our forecasts for either Capita or Serco.

Seems to be a pretty pivotal moment for the country, I hope they do it right. I'm still flabbergasted that they think they are going to get any foreign investment, let alone $100bn. Looks like PAF at close to 3 month highs. SA miners did alright today. Next stop 8p? Then only 6p more and i break even woop!

Hey Leas, been a lot of speculation about the manipulation of the gold market lately. It seems the only thing that didn't fall today was the USD.

Only down 1.5% today, doing better than a lot of my other holdings. ZAR basket taking a hit today but its been on a good run lately and sitting at multi-year highs. Is the risk of strike action in SA higher right now than normal? Not sure what the MMS are up to here but they seem to be accumulating alot of stock.

I'm interested in the long term proposition here but its falling so quickly and doesn't seem to have finished yet so I'll wait a few days I think

@ hereshopin - apologies you are correct

Downgraded to 'reduce', target price dropped to 81.5 v 190 Ouch

Only way to describe what's happening here. Big seller desperate to offload their holding, completely detached from any fundamentals. Looks like it may close at a low today, with the bounce perhaps coming over the next few days.

Last week has seen a wave large blocks being sold. Do they know something leading into full year results or is it just a case of timing? ZAR basket at around 15,000 at over a 3.5 year high bodes well if they can get the ounces out

Consensus says 2020 will see a dividend yield of 0.5% when leverage goes below 2x. Management needs to be sensible, they continued paying dividends even when they started experiencing problems before. Net debt will be key, if they can pay that down faster then we might see it restored sooner

Hi Max, Hopefully management have 'kitchen sinked' all the bad news and we see a steady trickle of contract wins and large renewals on more favourable terms over the next 1-2 years. A doubling of the share price would imply a market cap of £5bn. Assuming faith in the business and management is restored and the multiple improves to 15 that would imply a profit of £333m in 2021. Not impossible.

It depends if you see top line or bottom growth being more important. They have flagged in their announcement that EBITDA growth will be more modest in 2019 than 2018. Given that 2018 EBITDA growth was only 12%, 2019 growth and margins will be very modest indeed. 2020 is when I see margins start to expand as investment moderates.

Thanks Eish, good post. What's your view of the proposed charter? It doesn't seem too bad after my quick bit of research. The guy is delusional if he thinks he's going to attract $100bn in foreign investment over the next 5 years. He is saying one thing but the rand at 13.87 says another.

What a drop. Way overdone. Does anyone remember when the same thing happened to Boohoo not long after its IPO a few years ago? It fell to 20p in January 2015 after the market misunderstood the investment phase preceding its remarkable growth. Every dip in Boohoo since then has been related to concerns about margins from investment but it has generally bounced back each time as it delivered its top line growth. Looks like FOOT is now a 2020+ story with 2019 the year of investment. The expansion of warehouse space and strong growth in online sales is very interesting. Its not Boohoo but the target market is similar, kids who would rather spend their money on clothes, shoes and makeup than booze. They also have a management team who know the industry inside out and have the credibility to win support. Perhaps they just haven't managed expectations amongst the analyst community. I don't think we have quite seen the bottom but in a year from now I think the SP will be significantly higher. Its trading on 10x PBT, which is a bargain.

And a contract to go with it. Holding on to early gains will be a result in today's market. Seems a good place to park some cash with all this trade war anxiety

Capita purchased Constructiononline for £35m in early 2015 when it had £4m operating profit. Now, combined with Supplier Assessment Services it has £6m profit and they are selling it for £160m. Good to see they are on track to deliver at least £300m in disposal proceeds in 2018.

Looks pretty well range bound 4.5 to 5 until news. 4.55p seller must be desperate to offload