Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Taking a bath on this like everyone. Can't really see that much to cause such alarm. Presentation is on now, should have some feedback later this morning

Volcano its in the calendar section of LSE also

http://www.lse.co.uk/FinanceDiary.asp?shareprice=CPI&share=capita_group

Should be an interesting result, I will be looking at anything that reaffirms guidance of revenue of £4bn, how the cost reduction program is playing out and the net debt figure

Good interview, thanks for sharing Mulder. I don't think that CEOs are qualified to give SP targets but it sounds like he is working hard to rectify the slump. First gold pour at Elikhulu on 16th August.

The contract renewal shows that the customer is happy to continue the relationship with Falanx as the new owner of Securestorm. As Falanx stated in the acquisition announcement, the value of Securestorm is not in this revenue (and certainly not the 5% profit) but in the potential relationships it can open in the future and the potential to cross sell the other Falanx services, particularly Midgard. The announcement is a small step in meeting this objective.

I'm still wondering what happened to the pipeline of Midgard potential contracts which they announced several months ago...

The sales process takes 120 days due to the way the contract is structured. Don't forget they have almost no inventory because concentrate goes to the refiner almost immediately as produced, but I don't think that they get paid for 120 days, reflecting the time taken to refine it. This means that working capital is tied up on the SLP balance sheet throughout the production process rather than the refiner's and trade debtors in a way is a proxy for inventory/work in progress.

I remember looking at this some time ago, I think TWC/Sales was around 33% which is on the high side but not uncomfortably. Another reason why management like to keep that cash balance high. I would like to see a small amount of USD working capital facility taken on to release some TWC. With the performance of the business I think they would get a very competitive rate.They would still have a net cash position but the ability of a business to manage some debt gives confidence and they could use this to smooth out these annoying working capital movements at very little cost.

Morning Visitor, disappointing the cash balance is not higher. However there was a $6.4m unwind in Q3 and Q4 revenue was $6m higher than Q3 which is likely to have all gone to debtors (including a $2.2m sales adjustment). We will see this unwind in Q119 but I think the nature of the business means the debtors days are around 120.

Well that blew my forecast out of the water. A lot of records: Production 20koz, revenue $20.1m, EBITDA $8.4m(!) supported by Echo recovery efficiencies, unit cost reductions and a $2.2m sales adjustment. As expected, production just made it to the lower end of guidance to give another successive consecutive increase in annual production. Cash balance fell due to tax payments, fx and a huge receivables build.

As always power supply seems something to watch out for and management seem a little glum about the continuous fall in the Pt price but feed doesn't seem to have been an issue this quarter. Management drop some hints that production still isn't quite optimised at Millsell and Lesedi .

Full year revenue is $63m and EBITDA of$22m at a heathy margin of 35%. The result could have been a lot better without the issues of Q3 and bodes well for 2019. It looks like the EBITDA quarterly run rate is more like $6m now.

Ok that would explain the rise then. Looks like its on the up again today.

Don't tell anyone jsmith. Stealthy 5% rises for no reason are my favourite. With the recent SP explosion and topping up into the strength this has become my second largest holding.

The valuation is compelling, on both return on equity and P/E basis. 20%+ return on equity in 2018, 2020 P/E of single digits yet PBT expected to triple from 18-20. Outstanding operating leverage with 50% of revenue dropping to the bottom.

The industry is ripe for further consolidation, the benefits of scale in this sector and from combining platforms are just too attractive. FFX is in an ideal position to lead this.

Can this rate of growth to be maintained? The recent trading update suggest it could... and then some. FFX still has a relatively small share of a VERY big market. Every update that confirms the trend will propel this higher

Agreed capex will be lower once we get some updated Echo guidance. I haven't used Liberum's numbers anywhere in my calcs, just for reference as this is what the 'market' is expecting. I think an average of our estimates would be as good a consensus as anything. I will update 2019 once we get the Q4 update on Monday/Tuesday and investor presentation in August.

If you look at the 5 year history they have grown EBITDA from 4m in 2014 to around 21m this year, despite volatile prices and revenue. That is 4 years consecutive years of EBITDA growth at a CAGR of 48.! A company with that level of growth and earnings history would normally attract a premium multiple (but I think this will be limited by feed supply anxiety).

Hey Visitor, bullish forecast!

I'm going a bit more conservative until we get guidance from the company but currently expecting them to hit 71koz this year and 76koz in 2019. They must have produced 7koz per month in Q4, so nameplate capacity of 84koz but they can't maintain feed to hit that.

Gross revenue of 80m, net of 25% tolling for reported revenue of 60m. EBITDA of 21m at 35% (Liberum EBITDA 25m).

Less 12m capex/tax gives FCF of $9m in 2019. With lower capex in 2020 this becomes $13m for a 1 year forward FCF yield of 20%.

By the end of 2020 the cash balance will be $37m before financing. They have stated they would like the cash balance to be $8m so that leaves around $30m surplus cash by the end of 2020.

There is upside from Echo on costs and margins but costs have risen for the last 4 quarters so until I see this trend broken I'm sticking with 540/oz cash cost.

https://uk.webfg.com/news/broker-recommendations-/broker-tips-next-vodafone-air-partner--3412811.html

New note from Liberum this morning. Nothing too controversial in it. Business as usual with 5-10% organic growth expected for the next 2 years, supplemented by the occasional small bolt on acquisition funded out of free cash flow, with the broker's preference to expand Air's training and consultancy division to bring great earnings visibility. Price target 155p.

Looking at last year we should be due a H1 PBT trading statement at end of August and full results at end of September. Performance so far on balance seems positive

Latest investment from Church House investment, the deep value specialist which looks at buying stocks trading at a discount to NAV. Game currently trading at a discount to cash, giving pretty much nil value to the rest of the business.

http://www.ch-investments.co.uk/our-funds/deep-value-investment-fund

Hey make_money. A good share indeed and if Fidelity have decided to get in at these levels then they have certainly done their research and are happy with their entry.

I also think the current SP is still a good entry and I’ve also been taking a few more shares every now and then. My view is that the chrome market has legs, Samancor will still be producing reasonable volumes over the next 10 years+ and therefore SLP has a sustainable business model. I'm not concerned about the price for now, another $100 from the basket and we will still be making money but half of producers will be close to going bust.

I believe over the next year the SP will increase to normalise that forecast 10%+ dividend yield to something more in line with a risk adjusted market yield.

So it seems that you can alloy Rh with Pt to create a substitute to Pd in petrol engines implying that the ratio of Pd to Pt prices will determine the use of Rh. I still think the fundamentals for Pd are strong as well with the Russians stockpiling to support prices like they do with diamonds and EVs unlikely to take for a few more years yet.

At $5000/oz over 50% of revenue would be from rhodium. But I think Pt would have to fall much further to get there.

Hey Visitor, looks like rhodium is one of the few metals to have a higher price than 2 weeks ago and is now 28% of revenue. Still a long way from the $10,000 spike in 2007... The basket has been holding up ok, only 12% off its peak in USD and 7% in ZAR in line with the other PMs. The 2.5% rise yesterday helped.

Should see some good results with Q4 production of 20koz just to hit the very bottom of the guidance range and will hopefully pip the previous Q417 record and 2017 annual record. I'm looking for Q4 revenue: $16m and EBITDA margin . 30-35%. I'm not sure about the cash balance, they have a big tax payment in Q4 and I don't know how their capex phasing has been impacted by Tweefontein Echo being moved to 2019. Somewhere between $15m and $20m

I am very interested in costs, with the first full quarter of two plants with twin recovery circuits operating at nameplate capacity we should substantial reductions in material handling costs. Also interested in Lesedi, thus far its been marginal and should have made a contribution this quarter.

New report out from Edison today, interesting about the dividend, I wonder if they have discussed with management. Compelling valuation if its true...

https://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/pan-african-resources438045/preview/