Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Biggest one day fall in over a year

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/markets/2018-08-10-rand-blows-past-r14-for-first-time-since-november/

8% forecast divi yield

It tends to happen a lot here, not a huge free float and it tends to move suddenly with the spread all over the place, especially when its going up.

Speculation in the FT today that Ashley’s purchase of House of Fraser and interest in Debenhams may lead to them turning their unused basements into gamer dens.

Given the Belong partnership between Game and Sports Direct this would have obvious ramifications for them

Thanks for the update. I would have liked to go on the call but I normally can't fit it around work.

I've noticed the SP tends to react when there is a positive opening weekend for a big film, like the latest Mission: Impossible films. I'm banking on the fact that people will still go to see big films and its encouraging to see a lot of big films on the release schedule and Cineworld investing in technology and innovation to continue to attract the shortening attention span of the modern consumer.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2018/07/28/friday-box-office-mission-impossible-fallout-tom-cruise-rebecca-ferguson-henry-cavill/#17fd331f6949

Hey Londoner7, solid results, the market seems to like it. The US acquisition already looks to be a great buy although only a few months in. The other regions look a bit anaemic. I don’t think the SP would be up like it is today without the impact of Regal.

Second half and 2019 performance should continue with a lot of big releases in the pipeline.

It looks like a combination of 3-5% admission growth and price inflation should support revenue growth of 5-10% with a similar level of earnings and dividend growth, at least that’s the reason why I’ve been piling in over the last few months. I also like that they are continuing with their investment into enhancing the experience through technology, there are a lot of leisure sector dollars floating around there but you need to be ahead of the game to be at the front of the queue.

Looking forward to paying off that debt load. Cash generation is as healthy as ever and once a billion or 2 has been lifted from that pile over the next couple of years we could see some enhanced returns,

Thanks for the updates on Cinemark yesterday.

Big one from Ivanhoe as well, they've started construction and looking for a $1bn in funding with 500koz PGM low cost production from phase 1 in 2022 and well over 1Moz under the expansion case.

https://www.ivanhoemines.com/site/assets/files/3876/2018-07-16-cp_ivn.pdf

They reference the knife edge from a 2016 PWC paper to justify bringing on so much additional production but a lot has changed since 2016 and what about mothballed shaft capacity that can be restarted if prices recover

https://www.pwc.co.za/en/assets/pdf/platinum-perspectives-brochure.pdf

Sorry Mulder, just a tongue in cheek comment. I'm assuming that he has a very high level of confidence about the first pour, it would be very embarrassing if it didn't happen

I believe that Cobus has already invited the dignitaries for the official first pour next Thursday.

Sizeable cash position indeed Visitor! EBITDA for the next two years should be close to $50m. Less capex ($13m) and tax ($12m) you are looking at cash flow before working capital movements of $25m.

I’m estimating TWC at June 2018 to be $23m + cash of $14m gives you an opening liquid asset position of $37m. Add to that $25m over two years gives you $52m in cash and liquid resources by end of 2020, versus current Mcap of $65m.

Of course you will need to risk adjust this for the big caveats:

prices, will RH and Pd continue to offset Pt weakness?
Will the chromite market continue to hold up and despite recent price weakness support Samancor production operating at capacity?
Black Swan event – collapse of Eskom for example…

Implats Rustenburg announced the results of its strategic review and as expected decided to close a number of its old deep unprofitable shafts on the western limb, reducing its headcount by 13k and production by 230koz by 2021.

The documents released are a good summary of the woes of the SA PGM industry. Impala investors have taken an absolute bath over the years, its shares down over 90% since 2011. The bright spot is the toll refining business where IRS processes third party concentrate (perhaps from Sylvania).

Struggling to see even after this is implemented how Implats can make money...Not a pretty read:

http://www.implats.co.za/

Healthy rise today. Would you call that a 'spike'?

I recall they had some pretty expensive legal advice around this accounting issue might be something to do as well. Its all a distraction for management and investors because the business seems to performing well, hopefully the next release confirms this

I'm surprised that anyone is interested in the arrival or departure of the company secretary, while technically they sit on the board its not a business critical role. I don't believe the company should notify of this departure normally or even why and is only doing so because they are an officer. If it was misconduct I have to assume they would have told us

The stock has been rising slowly but steadily since the crash and investors are still nervous and distructful so I'm assuming it is an excuse to take some profits. Volume on the 31st was higher than usual driven by a number of larger sells but the market has been choppy recently so I'm putting this down more to liquidity than anything about the business. I took the opportunity to buy a few more.

http://www.lse.co.uk/FinanceDiary.asp?shareprice=AIR&share=air_partner

Cinemark results out on Wednesday, the day before Cineworld, my mistake

Hey londoner7, I've also been accumulating these since the rights issue, I think they offer good relatively defensive value.

Cinemark's Q2 results will be out later today so keep your eyes peeled for those ones for a read across to see how the US market is performing

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=192773&p=irol-EventDetails&EventId=5274303

...helped us today Mulder. Thats a fat gain for the day.

Whats with all the sub £100 trades today? The MMs battling it out with the algobots?

Shearwater Group

"Our aim is to acquire and develop information security, cyber and cyber security companies with a leading product, solution or service capability whose full potential can be unlocked through active management and capital investment"

- Revenue, mostly from acquisitions of £6.2m, with double digit organic growth
- Segment EBITDA of £1.1m but group loss of £0.8m after overheads

At first glance strikingly similar to FLX, with one obvious difference: SWG's Mcap is £51m, 8.5x revenue.

FLX Mcap is £12m, 2 times revenue. And FLX might be profitable.

https://www.theshearwatergroup.co.uk/rnsNews/

This morning I read through this discussion from the 2016 LBMA conference with Stuart Murray (Chairman of SLP). After 10 years at Aquarius Stuart joined SLP and he makes some very interesting comments, about how he hates bankers, why the platinum industry in SA is doomed, investing in the industry in general and SLP building a huge cash balance (Session 7)

http://www.lbma.org.uk/_blog/lbma_media_centre/post/precious-metals-conference/

It was always going to be volatile over the next couple of years. I guess most aren't willing to wait on to 2020