Member Info for r1234

Share price spread. Currently 5%, 13.80 bid, 14.50 ask

I believe the spread reduces when there is more trading/volume

Just reposting JEBR's informative post of 30/08/24 that got lost in the noise. Things progressing faster than he expected. 1 down 2 to go.

I checked out a few finished ICSID cases that had an annulment to see what the next steps are.

It seems that we will get 3 more updates:

- each party files a statement of cost

- the ad hoc committee declares the proceeding closed

- the ad hoc committee issues it's decision on annulment.

After the statement of costs it took between 6 weeks and 5 months for the next step. The final step is almost everytime roughly 1 month apart.

This means that it's at least 2.5 months to go until the costs are submitted. End of the year is still possible through. Especially because most cases I looked at ended at the end of the year.

My best guess would be that the annulment is completely end of December or a few days later.

Seem to track HBR and SHEL pretty well, even though RKH aren't producing yet.

Yawn

Interesting to see how RKH compares to other oilers and the price of oil. Outperforming over the last 12 months.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RKH:LON?comparison=LON%3ABP%2CLON%3ASHEL%2CLON%3AHBR%2CNYMEX%3ABZW00&window=1Y

Ignore day to day SP movements, the trend is your friend.

Https://www.thephoenixgroup.com/investors/financial-calendar/

Half year results 16/09/24

Ex Div date 03/10/24

Any day :-)

Yawn

I'm no chartist, but if you look at the three year chart there is a clear resistance at 15p and also a clearly rising SP trendline. Any day now 15p going to pop IMO.

UBS at 2.99% just below what is required for a holdings RNS

In the AGM presentation, Sam says that they are hopeful that the OM pay-out will cover all their equity required for Sealion under the Navitas terms.

https://secure.emincote.com/client/rockhopper/agm2024/index.html

Around minute 07:00

Personally I'd rather they gave me the cash and then I could decide if I effectively wanted to do my own buyback by purchasing more shares.

One caveat to my earlier post:

(for any costs not met by third party debt financing)

Not sure what this means exactly but I think there was some discussion back at the time and someone posted RKH's opinion.

Navitas to provide loan funding to Rockhopper:

o The majority of Rockhopper's share of Sea Lion phase one related costs from Transaction completion up to Final Investment Decision ("FID") will be funded through a loan from Navitas with interest charged at 8% per annum (the "Pre-FID Loan"). Certain costs, such as licence costs, are excluded

o Subject to a positive FID, Navitas will provide an interest free loan to Rockhopper to fund two-thirds of Rockhopper's share of Sea Lion phase one development costs (for any costs not met by third party debt financing). Certain costs, such as licence costs, are excluded

o Funds drawn under the loans will be repaid from 85% of Rockhopper's working interest share of free cash flow

IMO, Navitas will want to know that RKH are good for their share.

Fisrt oil capex is $1.2b, RKH share is 35%, Navitas will loan 2/3

$1.2b * 0.35 / 3 = $140m = £110m

If there is no div ever, then it's just a pyramid scheme?

I'm hoping they will pay 50% of net profit each year as a dividend.

Also, the people of Africa should benefit from their own resources imo.

50% seems pretty good. The UK are taking 74% of UK oil and gas.

Https://miningexplained.com/the-lassonde-curve/

I saw this on a gold mining board, but there is probably read-across to oil explorers.

Interesting to note where Navitas came in, post appraisal, pre FID.

Also worth bearing in mind PMO got out at the same point, but probably due to risk of sanctions on their South American assets (zamma).