Member Info for r1234

RKH Shouldn't need to give up any more of their share if a 3rd partner comes in. RNS 08/12/2021

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/RKH/sea-lion-update-2a1ha9h17nvqwx2.html

"Should an additional partner be required, Rockhopper does not intend to reduce its working interest."

Falklands :-) But I think that ship has sailed.

I'll go for a modest 40p

I don't see them returning any cash to shareholders before 2030 and they may (or may not) have to issue some more shares to get to FID.

Just seen a 16.5 go through

Nice open

Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/RKH/sea-lion-operator8217s-update-ke4xrpkp6x9gsk4.html

I am not very familiar with BOR but do have a small position. I believe that BOR's acreage is gas condensate, so this paragraph in RKH's RNS caught my eye:

"The Development Not Viable category of 10 MMbbls are the additional gross resources from Gas Condensate contained on the NFB held by Navitas and Rockhopper, that could be developed under future phases but for which there is currently no published development plan or market."

They are saying that there is no market for gas condensate. Is this just them saying that there is so little in their acreage that it's not worth bothering with? They do also say that it could be developed in a future phase, so a bit of mixed messaging.

My hope is that the SP will rise in line with the 16% increase in 2C resource estimate, putting us at about 15.5p

Family farms are passed down from generation to generation. If the government take a bite each time through IHT, they will soon have swallowed the whole thing.

If you look at pages 136-137 of the EIS it gives you the project schedule. No need to guess.

https://navitaspet.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Sea-Lion-EIS_FINAL_PUBLIC-CONSULTATION_ISSUE_01072024.pdf

Harbour's problem is that a great proportion of their production is in the north sea and they are taxed into oblivion. Plus their Mexico/zama field is in limbo (I believe). They should have sold their South American assets and got on with Sealion.

Navitas have given guidance on first oil in the EIS:

"It is expected that ‘First-Oil’ will occur approximately 33 months after project sanction."

https://navitaspet.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Sea-Lion-NTS_28.6.24_Rev_2_NS.pdf

So even if FID is 31/12/24 first oil won't be until end of '27.

Seems some way off, but those of us invested here for the last ten years or so will pop champagne corks if/when a positive FID is given.

FID '24. Is that calendar year or financial year? Navitas may have some wriggle room.

TCM, "biggest" is a relative term. If he simply had said "funding is an impediment to FID" I might agree with you.

"otherwise we would still be expecting FID this year"

Do you have any evidence to the contrary?

The fact that the SP correlates pretty well with the oil price suggests that it is not just kids trading these.

IMO the share price decline has nothing to do with confidence in FID but in large part to the fall in oil prices.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BZW00:NYMEX?comparison=LON%3ARKH%2CLON%3ABP%2CLON%3AHBR&window=6M

From 2023 annual report

Harry Dobson –

Howard Obee £125,000

Peter Fleming £100,000

William Hodson £20,000

Total £245,000

Harry Dobson (Chairman), Harry Baker (CEO), and non-executive directors Sean Guest and Will Hodson all participating and subscribing for a total of £505,000

Just tracking the oil price IMO

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RKH:LON?comparison=NYMEX%3ABZW00&window=1M

Down in line with fall in oil price

The best line for me is:

"For the period ended 30 June 2024, the Group reported a profit after tax of US$16.5 million (H1 2023: loss of US$2.6 million)."

reporting an actual profit! :-)