Member Info for qwertyqwer25

To fizzle out after the excellent recent RNS. We will get a nice boost into Vanchem completion but after that I think we need the V price to start to strengthen towards $45-50 to continue the SP appreciation into the 35-40p range. It’s worth a lot more long term but we do need a bit extra cash flow generation to expedite and fund Mokopane and Vanchem expansion. Terry’s price rise prediction in H2 2019 has so far failed to materialise. I’m maybe too pessimistic but I doubt we will hold above 30p at the current V price.

Amateur10201 strikes again

Response should tell Fortune the next steps. Complete Vanchem. Get Mokopane on track for development. Let MN sort out BE and full steam ahead on JSE listing and leaving the craphole AIM market in 2020.

Yeh exactly. As long as the SP is North of 70p in a years time and North of £1.50 in 2 years time the CLNs won’t bring much dilution at all. Just need FeV to get back to $50 and we will be fine

News on price reduction. And only $30m outlay allows remaining cash to be used for Mokopane development. CLN not ideal but hopefully they can be paid off in cash rather than more dilution. Very well done by Fortune

I agree. If Serenity hits oil and its confirmed to be an extension of Tain i think a farm out or buy out will happen pretty quickly to avoid delay to the Tain development. Personally i prefer Serenity to be sold if its a decent price and a free carry farm out if not so great.

Ophidian - I thought that too but i think the oil discharge would cover any oil encountered during the drill. However, I'm not sure if the oil discharge permit allows for a certain volume of oil discharge based on the upper end of the prognosed reservoir. If for example we find a lot more oil than expected due to finding oil where we didn't expect maybe the permit needs to be amended to allow for the higher oil discharge. Again why would you need a new permit for drilling at the same time so personally i think it is a mechanical sidetrack to continue the drill rather than oil shows earlier than expected.

I thought access for that was limited to institutions Tiler?

I still think its better to use the Hawkeye proceeds to buy out Woodford on the cheap rather than a special dividend. Otherwise the SP will continue to be held back well into next year.

You negativity is incredible. I’m fairly sure you have sold out otherwise you are a clueless investor if you invest in something where you think the company is constantly doing badly.

I think its more like £475m for Serenity and £525m+ for Liberator West at $8.33/barrel based on 69m and 80m barrels recoverable. What i find interesting is that $8.33/barrel is for gas which is worth less than oil! In my head i had the oil worth $3 a barrel so im clearly far off. We need to hit oil first but i would be ecstatic with $5/barrel sale price if we find anything.

Like when i first tried yoga

Cash building?? June cash was $67m and now down to $60m. Needs some explaining i think. I still hold

I would rather the Hawkeye proceeds be used to buy out Woodford at a convenient price and the rest used to carry out a share buyback on open market to reduce the float. When Fed wireless is then monetised the SP appreciation would be huge

I think RBD and UJO will track WN value in their proportionate stakes. So if UJO flies and RBD is held back by some selling RBD will become the better value play on WN and people will start buying that instead of UJO. Best case is the RBD placing is in sticky II hands who are in for the monetisation event end game in which case the price of both UJO and RBD can move up as EWT and CPR comes out.

Interims today. As usual the price isn’t reacting due to the dire state of AIM at the moment. Will be good to see H2 EBITDA as it will prove we still make good money in a low V price environment. I still can’t see any new V projects being financed at this V price which is good for BMN. Seems we have got some V stockpiled and not sold. Could this be for the BE electrolyte supplies being negotiated?? I’d like to see V prices rise however towards $50-60 level to encourage the new V projects to take off as we will need a lot more V in future to support VFRB. I’d like to see $20m debt for Vanchem as that provides the cash buffer for Mokopane development whilst Vanchem will generate its own development funding from its profits. I expect the Vanchem/Vametco combination to produce around $20-$25m FCF per annum at current V prices which is still decent but a $20 price rise would add around $50m to this and we would be funded for all planned expansion activities in the space of 1 year! BE income not accounted for in the above but it will be small to start with anyway.

Answers my questions then. I was under the impression we had an 8000 -12000 ton V deficit this year hence my perplexion at the sustained low V price. Turns out we had production higher than demand in q1 2019 and a full year projected deficit of only 1200 tons. Good to see stone coal production not increasing so that’s a good validation of limited supply there. Interesting to see the massive supply expansion in China however which I was not expecting. So looks like overall the V market is in a good supply demand balance this year and it will take further compliance to the rebar standards to provide a larger deficit which could aid V prices to move up to a slightly more favourable level of around $50-60 earlier in 2020. The cash generation from that will be sufficient to provide the $65m needed for Vanchem and Mokopane within 18 months post tax without harming the VRFB uptake for which we already have a rental solution to prevent high upfront costs.

Lol this is great.

Traders selling in and out for a 5% profit here and a 5% loss there.

Lombard have been selling since before L2 results at a slow pace. That pace is slightly faster now but they will probably continue to do so even if Serentity comes in and the SP gets back above 50p. I reckon they will be below 5% by the time Serenity results come out if they are selling around 1m shares per week