Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Am also surprised the V price is still falling. It certainly is impacting our SP now along with shorters. My main concern here is how have so much stockpiles been built up? I suspect it’s Glencore stockpiling over 2018 and forcing a price rise and then dumping from late last year. There is a V deficit so we know prices can’t keep falling. This is also fantastic news for VFRBs. Hope orders for new systems go through the roof with such low prices as it gets the technology out there. Once BE is up and running and we have a good order stream we will all be rejoicing at low prices
Can anyone confirm if the Vanchem acquisition comes with a year of ore stockpile and all cash held within the business which will be growing with continued production until the transfer of ownership date? It doesn't make sense to me that Vanchem would come with a year of ore stockpiled (1000 MTV) worth $50m at current prices plus any cash held in the business for a price of $68m. That ore would be converted to $25m profit to add to the likely $10m+ cash in the business. I'm sure i have got this wrong so hoping someone can explain.
Not too bothered by the false drop if its meant to help the shorters close out so we can re-rate back to above 30p
March production looks great. Its over 3200 MTV annualised and hopefully it can get a further small bump up to 3400 MTV annualised over the year maybe if they can make more improvements during the maintenance period. The real growth driver now on the mining side is Vanchem/Mokopane so hopefully FM can keep that on track more so than Vametco as Vanchem should be able to pay for its $45m investment from its own cashflows leaving Vametco profits to fund Mokopane and dividends. Mokopane/Vanchem growth is also a priority for fueling BE.
is clear there is a concerted effort to reduce AIM stock prices across the board and hold them in a range. There are some excellent companies out there including BMN which should be trading at higher prices but are not. I don't understand what the motive is for MMs to reduce prices across the board as it simply kills sentiment and leads to investors leaving the market. Surely they are killing off their own business this way but trying to make up for it by trading stocks which is not what they should be doing.
There is just a lack of interest in the share due to the poor BoD performance so far this year. Most AIM BoDs would be envious of the position RPT are in with cash position and little free float shares. As a minimum i expect a couple more drills to be spudded. It may be the case that Pinchuk has already started a takeover discussion with Energees pending results of VAS CPR so the company is holding fire on cash deployment if there is likely to be a takeout fairly soon.
With a spread so large volume will be suppressed. Has anyone got history of how the major shareholders of BMN have changed over the last year? Would be interested to see who has sold out and who has built a stake.
cleansing of the post by Herts this morning. Admin deleted mine for some reason so ill re-post part of it. The junior debt provider stands to potentially make a lot of money with their share options if the facility is agreed and drawn upon. Even if only the production well is successful we should be looking at a substantial increase in the share price based on the broker forecasts and I3E's own NPV analysis. I agree the BoD need to deliver the junior debt but that will be a major de-risking step as the rest of the drilling is all ready to go.
BoD need to pull their finger out and initiate a £5m share buyback with the price so low. As well as drilling new wells the best investment they can get is buying their own shares up to 65p rather than parking it in Ukraine gov bonds. Hopefully Baron puts the pressure on the BoD. Personally i think just £1m buyback would send the SP rocketing due to the very low free float.
some people panic sell more shares please as we need to help the shorter close his position? Everyone buying shares is just delaying the close out of the shorter and until that's done i doubt the price will budge from here. The shorter is a KING and they will get whatever they wants I'd expect a move back above 0.7p meaning the shorter has booked their enormous profit completing the transfer of money from our accounts to theirs. I will be selfish and not sell any of my shares though but i also won't buy to help clear the shorter faster.
is just getting barmy but i do appreciate the MMs need to close their short otherwise they will make serious losses so this may carry on a while longer along with a tame seller. If you are able to think longer term and consider we will get to 10,000 MTV production with costs probably reduced to $15 a kg its quite easy to see how profitable we will be. Every $1 above $15/kg is worth $10m profit just for the mining business. If i were the MM's i would rapidly want to get to a large net long position and then start moving the price up to fish for trader sellers and then let this loose towards £1 and bank a huge profit. It would be more profitable that these shorts.
I agree patience is required here. But the best patience here is waiting to invest at a time when catastrophic dilutive fundraises are no longer required. That may be 1 or 2 years down the line so preserve capital.
is AIM so i presume this will get sold down heavily and the next fundraise will unfortunately be a catastrophic dilution for current holders. Although i hope this company succeeds i think if it gets back to 10p it will have a market cap of £1 billion with the number of shares likely to be issued. High growth companies making huge losses belong on the Nasdaq exchange. If EVRH were on that i'm sure it would be sitting at a SP of over 50p right now but on AIM there is no such valuation given
And based on your theory of prices i think this huge supply shortfall means Vanadium prices should be sitting at $500 instead of $50 as prices should be based on demand and supply dynamics in 2023 rather than now.
Charlie. Current global V demand is around 80-90,000 tonnes. It is forecast to reach 300,000 tonnes by 2023. Lets assume this is a wrong assumption and it only rises to 150,000 tonnes. This is an increase of 60-70,000 tonnes from todays demand. BMN will increase production by 6000 tonnes hopefully by 2023. This new mine in the US will add 5000 tonnes. We still have a shortage of around 50,000 tonnes Vanadium in 2023. Please can you locate 10 other mines the same size of this new US mine (or Vametco for that matter) you talk about which will come online by 2023 to fill the supply gap?
Please do not respond with "There is an 1,000,000 tonne asteroid containing 99% Vanadium which is currently on target to collide with Earth in 2023 to fill the supply gap".
another morning drop. No surprises to be honest. Won't be surprised it the MM's keep shunting this back toward pre-Vanchem levels so they can try grab more cheap shares.
Seems like the tame seller is dumping away. V prices starting to fall again not helping I guess. Looking forward to getting SA investors on board with the JSE listing and the closing of the Vanchem deal. Its the first period of real SP stagnation for me but some of the LTH's have seen this before so whilst its annoying to watch the SP not reflect proper value we know a re-rate will come. I must say i am a bit surprised at the V price staying this low with the supposed deficit in supply. I would have thought it may have risen and settled closer to $65 as buyers snap up stockpiles expecting higher prices later in the year.
Seen this all before. MM heavy short and so are other shorters and they need to close before the V price goes back up. I think we will hang around 30p until V prices go back up as I doubt an improved production report will be enough to outgun the MMs and shorters. Once Vanchem deal closed we can focus on JSE listing which should bring some more stability to the SP. it’s all about the long term here so I’m no longer fussed if we don’t hit the 45p broker target this year due to MM manipulation as long as FM delivers on the growth as prices always correct over time.
Anyone considered the use of VRFB in shipping. I know Tesla was thinking of electric container ships so I’m sure VRFB may have a use there. If I was on a ship I’d rather not have a load of lithium ion batteries on board which could catch fire and turn my ship into a submarine. Plus I’d rather not have to change the batteries out after 10 years when I could use a 20 year life VRFB.
I guess you are right there. Move to SETTS I think will help and JSE listing may bring more stability to the price. I think we just need a modest lift in V prices to around $65 and the SP should start moving back towards the 40’s where it should already be. We just need to wait for this short term inventory build to deplete and that will support prices. In the interim the MMs will select our pricing range.