Member Info for qwertyqwer25

Why the square? ARB has no chance in hell of doing that. It will be lucky to even double hashrate from now to a years time. Does that mean ARB is screwed in your opinion?

Looking at how difficulty is rising relentlessly I’ve cut my expectations on the SP from 25p this year to 12-15. If it continues the way it’s going I suspect ARB will not be as profitable I as expected. I think a profit of around £8m this year is my revised expectation which would still be an excellent result. Probably is that would buy another 10,000 T17 machines only and I think we need to grow faster than that. If BTC suddenly explodes in a short space of time that would have a very positive impact on profits. Maybe ive been too conservative but time will tell

Reducing the shares in issue whilst the SP is low means it will fly much higher later on. We need a mix of new machines and share buyback. If the share price goes to where it should be then no need for a buyback as little value added for SH

ARB should carry out a RRE type share buyback at 7p for those who want to sell out to clear the sellers.

I agree to an extent. Mining difficulty is rising rapidly but that is due to the rising BTC price. It also depends on power costs. There is no point bringing a 1 GW mining facility online if it loses money. I think ARB need to introduce a share buyback scheme of maybe £1m per quarter and use the rest of the cash to expand mining capability whilst also looking at ways to reduce costs. I would prefer a BTC price of around $12000 post halving which would crash the hash rate as mining would be loss making for many miners.

Have a theory that miners may have switched machines from mining other crypto to BTC to build up some BTC for the upcoming halving which is expected to send BTC upwards. These miners may have been mining unprofitably or at breakeven to hoard BTC. But now difficulty is so high it’s not worth mining and losing money. Maybe hash rates will decrease over the month and this could improve ARB’s Q1 average.

Found this useful website for identifying the difficulty and how it’s going to change at the next adjustment. Also managed to develop what I think is a decent excel prediction tool which I’ll use to predict Q1 results and margin and share here. I think Q1 margins will likely be 45-50% but I’m being conservative. Will have a better idea by end feb I think. Looks like mining is too hard at the moment so difficulty will adjust lower next. https://diff.cryptothis.com/

also be buying more when the dividend arrives. Will put fresh cash into it if the price drops to 30p which i highly doubt will happen.

I dont think people understand the situation here. Even at $8000 BTC price at which the hash rate will not increase we would be making over £10m a year when all machines to be delivered are online. Id be happy with that and the price doubling to $16000 after halving to maintain those profits. Personally i think the company need to allocate around £2m to a share buyback to help re-rate the SP back to where it should be closer to 10p. As the profits are re-invested into new machines the profit will continue to grow

I do not want that. I want BTC below $10000 for H1 including after the halving and ideally around $7000 now and rising up to $10000 for the halving. At halving most miners will not be making money and the hash rate will plummet and ARb can hopefully build up a small stash of BTC and sell it when the BTC price re-rates to $15000 plus. I think the company needs to continue buying more machines and max out their 64 GW power supply and possibly even increase it. Dividends or share buybacks should be considered from 2021 imo. Maybe the company can also look into ways to reduce its electricity costs by building a solar plant or something similar.

I expect the company to have a cash balance north of £10m come year end based on conservative figures. If BTC doubles at the halving from this level then I think cash will be closer to £15m this all assumes they do not invest cash in further machines which I think they will do. Personally I think they should aim to get 3000 T17’s per quarter starting from Q2 and then assess growth based on BTC price and difficulty.

Happy with the BTC drop. Ideally it gets back down to $7000 to kill off new miners. SP is awful and I guess some bed wetters don’t see the potential but the company is executing well and Q1 revenue could end up being almost as large at the entire 2019 revenue. BTC can easy explode to $15-20k as well as drop so depends how you see it

price action here. The lack of info in the last RNS was partly to blame as there was no cash position mentioned. I think we will need to wait for Q1 results to show the market we are a very profitable business and then we can start to move up towards and past 10p. I had a 25p target here but it will take a while to get there. I hope BTC stays around this level for Q1 and into halving as i really want the hash rate to be destroyed to decrease mining difficulty.

Yeh i spotted that too when i read the RNS. 472 petahash is correct. The RNS is wrong. They also need to confirm the cash position

They need is a £2m share buyback but the BoD are incompetent with regards to shareholder value generation. At least operationally they are doing well as cash is still building

the current bitcoin price and hash rate we will be making $26m a year once all machines on order are installed. Assuming BTC price stays the same and hash rate also stays constant we will be making $10m a year. Many other miners will be loss making or have profits hugely reduced like us so in reality hash rate will start to decline and hence difficulty will reduce as it would be the equivalent of the BTC price dropping to $4500 today. After halving i think ARB will need a BTC price of at least $4000 to maintain breakeven. I think the BTC price will be at $15000 later this year imo and we will be making circa $25m a year. This will help finance the cost of new machines and reach 1.36 exahash capacity ($15m cost of machines) leaving us with a post halving profit of $50m a year at current global hash rate.

Is very short sighted hence all it sees is the significantly lower profits generated from a very low V price. The market factors nothing in for BE. SP will probably remain in the doldrums until solid BE news or a rising V price. I’m prepared to wait years which is what it will take for this share to be truly understood in potential by the wider market. It’s a get rich slow scheme.

biggest learning this year is to have a diversified portfolio. BMN remain my largest holding bt ive had great success in RRE and PTAL also this year whilst BMN has been a drag. Luckily i wasnt all in on BMN and this year has proved to me why a single stock portfolio is not for me. Hope this is just the shorters closing out and tidying up a profitable year on their BMN campaign. Fortune said he will drive the shorters out of business which im sure he will but these shorters are too smart and will have exited in advance of the positive news that is to come.

£5k today at christmas bargain of 20.2p. Now just need Fortune to put the shorters out of business.

This is too good a company, opportunity and investment for it to make money for traders. I hope only the LTH are rewarded as is the case for those who bought at 2p.