Member Info for qwertyqwer25

year BMN did wonders for my share portfolio this time of year. Completely the opposite this year. Next christmas will hopefully be a better one and even more so the one after. 70% compounded gains over the next 3 years is a fair target imo. Takes us to £1 from here.

The company has options too as it’s selling all its bitcoin currently. Once capex is covered and if BTC prices remain low it can just hold onto some BTC and sell them at higher prices. The $6000-$7000 range is ideal for ARB whilst it ramps up machines. I expect BTC to hit above $20k next year and thats when the cash will roll in quickly. After halving most miners will be killed off with prices below $12k. My target remains 25p for now.

have totally reduced my expectations of the SP here based on a lower V price than anyone expected longer term. I still see upside to 40p by end of 2020 assuming some good BE progress. By end 2021 we could be 60p-£1 with the majority of the valuation coming from the BE side. The mining business profits will dictate the pace of production improvements. If V prices remain low and the market oversupplied i expect production ramp up to be slower based purely on the steel market but if BE takes off quickly production should be ramped up faster. If V prices miraculously rise that will have a positive short term impact on prices of course. Slow and steady i think is the way for BMN

wonder if the company investing in their own solar power plant could be a good idea one day to help drive down the cost of mining. It would remain a useful asset than will hold value long term. I prefer a share buyback for now whilst the SP is at these bonkers low levels.

A ballsup by CoC. They are going to lose money on this investment it seems. Stock is priced as if the asset is finished and no FID will happen. Things will dramatically turn around if there is a positive FID but I doubt much news for 6 months hence the SP reaction. Could go to 20p or zero.

Happy to see all the negative sentiment here. Signals a turn very soon. If BTC remains at this price until the halving ARB will have generated some serious profit of £5-8m. I’d rather the company start a share buyback program instead of a dividend to send the SP back up to where it should be.

believe a director bought only a few weeks ago at 141p! What was he thinking!!!!!! I'm in at 50p and think this will bounce to 60-70p but it will take a few days or weeks. I suspect 80p area may be a decent T/O point or maybe higher if the Guyana well comes in. If no T/O company need to sell off some assets to halve the debt load. If new management sort out the issues this could well go back to £2 over a 2-3 year timeframe. If it stays around these levels i think a T/O is on the cards.

News from Hive. If they aren’t profitable at $7500 bitcoin they won’t be at $15000 when the halving happens. So realistically bitcoin will need to hit $20,000 for most miners to be happy. At that price ARGO becomes a cash machine.

Is everyone so positive about the situation. Lib East is at best a much smaller development. Serenity hit oil and Lib West is still to explore. BUT....they expected loads of oil in Lib East but turns out it’s much less. What if they similarly over estimated Serenity and Lib West. Could turn 600m barrels into 150m barrels which is still good but and farm out will require giving away over 67% of the licenses and debt finance is very very unlikely unless the company dishes out a gazillion share options. Equity raise will also dilute the hell out of the company and come with more warrants as the ones at 40p and above will never get exercised. I suspect there will be more to be made as Serenity is a great asset in my view and Lib West has potential but it’s likely after the financing I expect the number of shares in issue will mean the SP will never break 20p. Could be a good trade from sub 10p to 20p if things go well as there will likely be close to 1b shares in issue when you take into account the 10’s of millions of share options the BoD will award themselves at the next fundraise. For me it’s a simple wait till they have funds to drill or farm out and then invest if the risk reward is good. In the interim news flow will die off so traders will probably sell out and drive the SP into single digits. Funding news by end of Q1 or Q2 should reignite interest.

Here is that the placing at 35p is complete so doubt they can go back on that but after drilling one more well and if it also suggest phase 1 not as big as hoped then how do they appraise serenity further. They can raise money probably at a very discounted SP or farm out Serenity for a free carry. And even on a very good serenity scenario they would only have say 30-40% after farm out which could sell for £100m in a best case. So I agree with BBN I can’t see any reason to be invested now until the BOD confirm the direction of the company. At best I can see a recovery to 50p if Phase 1 is dead and Serenity turns out to be as big as they expect.

Haven’t read the BB after the RNS but I sold out today mostly around 27p after the bounce as it didn’t feel right that the company were unable to release an RNS quickly. I’m sure many here are positive that oil was found and some negative. Personally the RNS reads to me like the oil in place in Liberator East is much lower than modelled and that will reduce the 2P reserves. The company will have to communicate by how much the reserves have reduced and based on that a commerciality assessment can be done. Until then it’s very uncertain so I expect the SP to react negatively tomorrow until the company clear that up

II sell off given election risk. Some other Uk focussed O&G shares also down heavily hence my thoughts. If the drill encountered no oil which I’d be surprised with as drilling would need to be quite ahead of plan to reach TD by now they would need to issue an RNS ASAP especially considering the SP reaction today.

You slate this but ramp the hell out of MATD which has hit more dust than Dyson hoovers. I was in MATD and sold out before it sprayed investors with so much dust they were left choking. I think ECO is a much better investment considering the potential in the rest of the block.

May explain why the FCA are not quite able to investigate manipulation. https://www.standard.co.uk/business/dirty-bins-booze-and-shameful-squalor-of-financial-conduct-authority-s-hq-a4284851.html

The free cashflow once we have 17,000 machines on order its a no brainer to allocate £1m a quarter to share buybacks if the market fails to value us correctly. We should still have at least another £5m a quarter free cashflow to invest in new mining machines. This assumes the bitcoin prices remains at $8000 which is roughly the breakeven for most miners compared to our $2500. After halving the breakeven cost for most miners jumps to $16000 and ours to $5000. This suggests the bitcoin price will need to be at least $16000 and we will be making $11,000 per mined coin compared to $5500 now although we will mine 50% less coins so our profit will remain the same. In reality bitcoin price will need to go towards $20k for the other miners to remain in business and grow. So I’m quite happy with the current bitcoin price as it holds back other miners from growing as fast as us

think now that the money has been received the company will need to start the share buyback process and Crystal Amber will hopefully dictate the liquidation of the rest of the company and return £1+ to shareholders. Expecting a few TR1's with the trades recently going through and then CA can begin their work.

To see V prices move up but it’s only one day. I want to see a 50% rise and then some stability at that level. Only then will the SP start to move towards the 30p level. I’ve accepted that in the short term the market will only value the company based on the mining side and currently that side side is running on massively reduced margins compared to last year. Just like any commodity V price has its cycles and we are at the bottom of one. Just need to remain patient and at some point the market will start to attribute value to BE which will bump the SP up even more

In fact if they owned 4% of the current shares in issues compared to the 6.45% of the share in issue pre-placing they would have more shares hence My conclusion is that M&G bought more in the placing but not proportionately to their existing % holding

But did they sell? The TR1 was an update based on the new share count post dilution but it does state there was an acquisition or disposal of shares. The drop could either be they bought some more shares in the raise but not enough to maintain their % holding or they did in fact sell some but certainly not very much as they are now between 4% and 5%.

How did the get the price lower? Dumped V stockpiles into the market?