Member Info for qwertyqwer25

prefer to think of profit per PH of mining power. I reckon Argo will be making around £8m annual net profit per 600 PH of mining power. This method kind of includes the impact of rising difficulty. So main goal is to get to 1200PH of mining power this year and we can be throwing off £16m a year profit. Keep growing that and once we hit 2400 PH power we can be making £32m a year and easily justify a market cap of £120-150m.

Totally wrong as you ignore the impact of difficulty. As BTC price rises difficulty will grow also. If BTC explodes to $1m per BTC Argo would be mining maybe 3-4 BTC a month due to high difficulty.

really should be trading at 10p so good to see the price catching up. Once market knows the company cash position in full year accounts i think the share price can start to move towards 15p. If i was a rival miner and i had the cash i would want to make an offer to buy Argo while its cheap.

June contract likely to go negative like the May contract. The massive increase in Saudi production during April is currently on the seas and due to smash into the shores of USA from end of this month. Tanks will will be full and prices will collapse but i think June will see the bottom for oil and then it will be a recovery into H2. I can see Brent getting back towards $50 by year end if the virus situation improves and the economy get restarted again.

Yes i wish i didnt have so much tied up in this dog of a share as so many other shares are doing very well. I have completely reduced all my expectations for this share until the BoD start to focus on shareholder returns. I agree with their current strategy of building machines and computing power but i thin in H2 some focus on share buybacks if the share price is still very low or dividends would be useful.

BTC stays this low until halving its gonna blow the market up. At least 50% of miners will be heavy loss making unless BTC can get up to $9000. But as we have seen in previous halvings BTC doesnt usually make its move till a month or so after halving. Therefore i expect a huge difficulty decrease and I suspect ARB will make very little money in June but the rewards will come from July/August onwards.

surprised by the update. BTC selling price was a lot worse than i expected probably as they got caught out by the price plunge. BTC mined i expected 330 so i was quite close. Mining costs were lower than last month so i expect one off costs from machine installations contributed to that. I think we will get back to a 50% margin or better from this month.

some news from the company. I'm fairly relaxed after that RNS. The drilling delay makes sense and good to hear favourable economics for EOR at these oil prices. I think oil has more to drop to maybe $15 but after that we should get a very good bull run starting from Q3. If the drill hits gas that will be a company maker.

few rental cases closed. Hopefully investors can see these are all likely to be closed in JKX favour. Once the NG bull market starts this company will be raking in the cash. Probably still 6-9 month away from seeing that though.

much regret buying in here. All my shares are down in the crash but i added to some of them to bring averages down and am happy holding. Here there is no feedback from Paul and we dont know if there are any delays. I did buy a small amount today as my average of 4.2p i struggle to see any time soon. New average of 2.8p and if i see that ill probably sell out unless Paul is able to convince me otherwise.

looking forward to March results. I have a feeling there may be certain one off costs associated with installing new machines and that may have skewed some of the numbers for Jan and Feb (or maybe not). March will really show what our cost base is with no/minimal new machines installed and then it will be easier to predict monthly revenue going forward. Suprisingly it looks like difficulty on average for March will only be slightly higher than Feb so we could end up mining in the region of 330 BTC and sell for an average price of £6400 ish. £ weakening will have been pretty favourable for ARB this month also.

If they use the proceeds from the Hungarian sale to launch a share buyback and only aim to buy up 3% of the total share count this would very quickly be back in the 25-30p range. There really isn't any better use of their cash at the moment especially if they manage to land the $12m claim as well. UNB must be worth at least $50m as it made £100m profit last year and this is with low gas prices. I would prefer for the UNB holding to be sold off if its not going to pay dividends to JKX any time soon and the money disbursed as a special dividend.

TXP gas sold at fixed prices or is it subject to market pricing? Looking to enter here

Seems to be a delayed response. Hash rate has dropped significantly so miners are turning off machines. This will likely continue if BTC doesn’t recover back to $7-8k so I won’t be surprised if difficulty drops 10-15% at next adjustment and then more at the next one. There isn’t much point in mining at the moment unless you are very efficient

month our cost per BTC was $4900. At todays BTC prices we are making nothing but more importantly our competitors are likely losing a quite a lot. Some will keep mining on the presumption this is a short term dip and prices will go back up. Some will turn machines off also which we are seeing as difficulty is forecast to drop a fair chunk. I have no idea what BTC will do next but March results are not going to be good.

everyone is too shocked to post today? This is falling victim to general market selling and BTC selling off.

Seems like a lot of miners have turned off machines as mining is behind schedule at the moment so a chunk of the last difficulty increase could be reversed at the next adjustment. I still think a lot of miners are trying to bring new machines online in advance of the halving as they expect a BTC price surge even if they are not making much money at the moment or even losing

on earth would we need a placing here? We are not trying to buy another Vanchem and the capex required to increase production can be delayed if required. I've not checked the recent V prices but i last saw they had recovered somewhat.

think another share buyback of $25m should be started given the current share price. This price war will likely last 3 months before sufficient damage has been inflicted to shale oil and then OPEC + will resume their cuts and restore Brent back to the $50-55 range to ensure Shale doesnt bounce back too rapidly and new non shale projects dont get sanctioned. This will likely result in a major price spike 2-3 years down the line and supply cant keep up with demand

Well ive managed to fine tune my prediction tool i hope anyway. Difficulty exploded higher by 7% whilst BTC price has gone down so my expectations are assuming the next difficulty is not a rise we will mine 315 BTC in March for a revenue of £2m which is down £0.5m from Feb because i assumed an average of $8250 BTC price over March. Under this scenario we will have a mining margin of 37% and profit of £730k. It would be a relatively poor month for us and the rest of the miners. I predict Q1 profit of £2.9m roughly. For ARB to remain profitable post halving at todays difficultly BTC needs to get back to $10k. But as Peter Wall said he expects BTC to rise and difficulty to fall. We could be mining 190 BTC at price of $17.5k and replicate Feb performance. All depends on hash rate fall and price rise.