Member Info for Quickwin08

@Mikey at the start of this ride a lot of people would have laughed at the thought of an 80p offer. I certainly did not think it likely. However, how things change. My view is sidara never left- deloitte review was instigated by them for them and it was to get the price down to what they thought was fair given what their dd had revealed. The feb massacre part 2 ( rns) was part of this driving down of ii's expectations re an offer. However, for me key is the word fair and despite where the sp is I don't see it as fair. If the price had not fallen because of DT it would have remained in the 28-32 range so I am thinking a min offer of 90p but a full and final offer of 110. 80p whilst def not laughable feels like the sp wg could get to within a few months after suspension. Thanks - do love these types of posts to see where everyone's thinking is at.

Why can I buy for 20 but can only sell for 18...halifax app. Never seen that before.

@OM a 5% increase would be great ..ditto @PF a 5 bagger however don't think such a hike is likely- irrespective of wg the market is just too horrid. Nonetheless happy to be proven wrong :)

@Agl71 so do you mean that they will now be working on getting a waiver which goes past 30th April ( in the event it's required). So in theory if no offer/ extension on 17th we might have an rns saying new waiver has been agreed? Thanks

Some great posts today - thank you all. However I was wondering about the 30th April waiver. In that I see it as strange to have it agreed until suspension date. It might be because they are not allowed to agree one until the 30th passes but I don't think any poster addresses this very specific point. Personally, I think in means wg will be in panic mode the next day trying to sort another waiver...which surely cannot be right? Anyone with finance experience of this situation able to shine a light??? Also stupid question but what do they need to show to get another waiver? Final stupid question is a waiver akin to underwriting wg's losses for the two sets of accounts which need to revisiting? We are all talking about waivers and I realised that I don't even know what it is in this context 🤣

Tarifs are just a cheap shake down by a conman. Hopefully will be over soon. Tech bros apparently going to talk to him....

@coldspy brilliant post as usual!

@captainswag your post re how you feel about this one is shared by a lot of us. I also concur the board are absolutely shocking and this is why I have zero trust. I am hoping however based on how I am reading the few facts we have that we will get a decent offer and exit unscathed. Let's see what this week brings... fingers crossed better than the last 6/7!

@sm66 I am thinking the same. If offered 230 and now looking at circa 80-120ish then the 'saving' is enough to fund any fallout from a few projects and even start restructuring. No reason for sidara to delay an offer- if anything suspension actually poses it real risks ie wg emergency stronger, lose talent, risk being broken up, do not allow them to tender for lucrative contracts as quickly etc...

Even in the context of the world being on fire- right now the timing is truly a gift. Get the deal and within a week or 2 that nutter across the pond would have reversed all the tariffs easing the pressure on the markets.

Hi @longfell the "suspension" drop was brutal and a timely ( or too late? ) reminder that the board are not on our side. I am hoping the suspension bombshell was an agreed stunt by both to get everyone on board to agree to a low ball offer.

I think all lot of us would have sold at the 40 plus given what we know now.... However, the few facts we have are sidara are mega keen, sidara came dashing back ASAP, geo politics will always be bad ( I think this was a lie and they never 'left' instead agreed wg would commission the deloite review as their dd had revealed concerns) hence why back ASAP( review has taken ages...(coincidence that has spanned the 6m sidarra lock out period?), and finally the math- if they were happy to pay 230 per share and now could get it for 80p a share then they are saving per share 150!! If multiply this by shares owned I am pretty sure they have a nice slush fund to underwright a few suss projects and restructure wg. It's like all sidaras Eids came early!

On my thinking sidara do not want to risk their Eids coming early and head into suspension. They lose control/ risk wg remerging stronger / risk talent walking/ risk missing out on tendering for new work etc. All this risk for what?? To know that they have a few suss projects that their slush fund can easily cover? To risk wg disappearing ( how much and how many years to create a new wg...)

As I said feels like a game of chess and Sid are playing it beautifully. All my own opinion but to me this explains a lot of what we have seen and "holding our shares" was the right decision. Does not mean that holding has not been easy ( @shewillkillme referred to it as having grit!). I know others have been very very relaxed about holding but I suspect they probably have bucket loads of spare cash so even now can average out and be OK. For all those who do not have that luxury (I def do not!) this has not been fun at all.

Finally, if no offer I am thinking will remove what I can ( genuinely the thought of the epic loss in doing so makes me feel sick) and keep in a smaller amount so if by some miracle the suspension ends positively I can claw back some loss. This will also mean some funds released early to again make up losses here. Not ideal but I honestly would not sleep if just kept it all in and headed into suspension. I don't trust the board.

Hi. It's clear they are re looking at the old accounts BUT if problems are found ( ie profits over egged/ losses not accounted for) then the current accounts will have factor in these errors so there will be an impact on the current accounts. In effect, wg are saying they are making more profit...but once the errors are factored the picture is v different. So how can people say ' it's in the past' so does not have an impact on the future?? Makes little sense to me.

In any event, view remains that a low offer will be made -however no clue as to when- part of me thinks on the 17th for maximum " take it or leave it" pressure.

hi @coldspy but this article was 4 years ago? i am less convinced of the the ' will not jobs die' argument than ever before. if this government were bothered about jobs reeves would not have been allowed to pass the budget in october. if any jobs will be saved- the circa 25k in steel industry probably more likely than woods lot? just my view. thanks

i for one am thinking despite the **** show sidara are still here. why?? geo politics more than enough to walk. they would have known before agreeing second extension that suspension is likely on the 30th but asked for the 17th. i believe it's because yes they want wood but at a fraction of what they offered 6m ago. the board are working with sidara to change sentiment so as to maximise the chance of the offer being accepted. in effect will be saying ' take our offer ( circa 70p) and forget about suspension etc and let us get on with sorting wg out or don't and walk into the unknown with a company led by a board who literally cannot even pick a qualified accountant'. so the 17th has been picked to give them enough time to avoid a suspension which is not automatic on an offer being presented( i am sure you covered the legislation on this in an earlier post). it's like watching a game of chess being played. for me if come the 17th sidara present no offer and say need sight of accounts this is alarm bells because they knew when agreeing the extension that no accounts would be available.

to be clear i don't think their offer will come with any conditions ( re accounts) as imposing conditions would mean suspension will take place and they don't want to lose the control they have. as a result offer will be v low.

thank you @coldspy for another brilliant post. from previous boards( and this one!) you have always been v generous with your knowledge.

@mylastchance what a brilliant and clear post. The last few weeks this bb has been dominated by largely useless posts focused on point scoring. Your post is undoubtedly the best one I have read re breaching covenants / impact. Thank you.

For what it's worth I don't think we can trust wg on any issue. On 14 Feb no mention of suspension. Roll forward a few weeks and bam. All in the context of Gilmartin saying ' hold your shares'. For me this singular piece of information screams ' don't trust wg board'. I am hoping sidara who have been pouring over the books for months ( I don't think they ever left- I think Deloitte was instigated at their behest) chuck in an offer and we are all spared testing how much we trust in the board. There is an awful lot of bravado on this board re the suspension and how the ii's will not allow it to go under etc... my thinking is if the ii's were so powerful how comes Gilmartin is still here?? How comes no pressure to get the review done super fast?? This whole belief that the ii's will grow a pair during suspension and boss the matter in shareholders favour just holds no water.

@onlyprofit we have had most of us predicting the offer for the last 6 weeks...so I wouldn't put much weight on a post on an external site. It's a case of the blimey leading the blind as there have been no leaks. Irony that wg can't even hire a qualified accountant but can run TO talks like the mafia 🤣

@hellodave I agree. Tariffs are awful for the world but the ME and Russia (!) seems to have got off lightly. Right now ME has never looked better for hosting what so much of Asia has done. Definitely feels like a shift to sidaras back yard!

Increase in short position is definitely not a good sign! I thought it had been decreasing!

Hi. There seems to be a significant discrepancy as to what ii's hold. Is it 67% or 81%? I thought the latter. Thanks

@ pete i thought II's held 81%? Thanks

Hi @coldspy- in the current saga all the big rns seem to be first thing so assumed would follow suit. Let's hope I am wrong! 🤣

But we have yet more form 8.5s....its not like we have not had enough. Yes can land anytime but we all know most likely first thing. Ugh