Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Saw Abingdon signed with new reagent supplier, Abcam.
"collaboration and co-marketing agreement with Abcam plc (NASDAQ) (“Abcam”), a global leader in the supply of life science research tools and reagents"
Can understand why they need a Co-marketer after the Abingdon, UKRTC, omega Antibody test being compared against a poor benchmark which threw off their results, with LFT test subsequently failing to meet UK minimum standards
At least Abingdon still have Avacta's Affimers. Or do they?
Avacta sign with Mologic to look at:
"possibility of combining Avacta's spike (S Gene) antigen test with Mologic's nucleocapsid (N gene) antigen-based technology in a single lateral flow device is already being explored"
Not Abingdon's fault Avacta selected the troublesome mutated S Spike Protein.
But does look as though they don't have an antigen candidate. So sign a deal with Abcam to try again.
Late in the day to be signing deals for nanoparticles, antibodies and signal reagents. So seems like fresh antibody and antigen LFT projects. UKRTC formed April 2020. Time is slipping away, along with that IPO cash.
£16.4m of the £22m left (as of 31 December 2020 was £16.4m)
"Abingdon of gold nanoparticles and custom conjugation reagents and services, for the Company’s lateral flow assays. Custom conjugation reagents will include a combination of an affinity binding reagent such as an antibody, and signal reagents"
https://www.abingdonhealth.com/news/collaboration-co-marketing-agreement-abcam/
I keep a board view on all COVID related news.
As mentioned in last post Abbott smashed the Antigen LFT sales. Roche had 50% antigen spare capacity and 75% antibody spare capacity
"Roche can also make 100 million rapid antigen tests monthly, but is now making only about half that via South Korean partner SD Biosensor, in part because it does not yet sell them in the United States. It can make up to 100 million antibody tests, too, to detect of somebody has had a past coronavirus infection or if they have an immune response to a vaccine, though demand is currently around 10-15 million monthly, Schinecker said. (Reporting by John Miller)
https://www.reuters.com/article/roche-results-testing-idUSFWN2KA0FR
Chuggley the new COVID Antigen LFT validation prioritisation criteria that was update on 8/02/21 may also impact Novacyt assuming they are working on an antigen LFT. Though the possibility of antigen test isn't baked into Novas SP
https://t.co/wFaWGugBEu
As a side note, Novacyt Institutional Investors v Private Investors
. 7th jan 2.5m (3.54%)
. 1st Feb 8m (11.4%)
Abbott do warn of detecting the S Spike Protein, not sure if ODX are targeting S or N gene.
There was that ODX employee who accidentally leaked he was starting on project with Avacta on their S Spike protein test. See avacta are now looking to work with Mologic to start new LFT project targeting S and N genes. But that's for another board for another day
Abbott Q4 Conf call question:
"your PCR versus antigen tests, can they detect these new variants, especially the South African variant? Is there a difference one versus the other, PCR versus antigen?"
Answer "Regarding your question on mutations and the impact there, a lot of the mutations here--I don’t want to get too wonky here, but we’ve been looking at this, Vijay, since the beginning. We have a group of--we call them the virus hunters, they’re constantly looking and studying and getting their hands on samples to be able to not only test our existing products, but even develop new ones.
I’d say right now the mutations are happening, the ones that you referenced. The South African one and the U.K. one, those are happening on what we would call the spike protein, what we call the S-protein. The rapid antigen tests that we have are actually targeting the nucleocapsid protein, what we call the N-protein, so in silico analysis says no impact. The U.K. NIH did a study on Panbio and found the U.K. variant to not influence the sensitivity of the Panbio, but we’re also collecting as many samples as we can from U.K., South Africa, Brazil, etc. and making sure that we’re constantly studying that to ensure that there’s no change to the sensitivity of the test that we’ve developed"
For example Abbott smashed the antigen LFT's out in Q4 but they have scale, money and track record
"The biggest contribution in the fourth quarter came from our rapid lateral flow test to detect the virus, which includes BinaxNOW in the U.S. and Panbio internationally. These are highly portable, reliable and affordable tests and in just 15 minutes can detect if someone is infectious without the use of an instrument, which means the test can be performed in virtually any setting, such as physician offices, pharmacies, urgent care centers, workplace settings, and even at home.
We also ramped up manufacturing capacity on a massive scale and now are producing more than 100 million of these two tests combined per month.
GaryB72 feel free to address any of my technical points? For ref i did well out of ODX and bought most of Nova holding under £2.
I've been freed up to take my gloves off. And ye, I'll be straight up seems silly for Novacyt money to be migrating to LFT testing companies with such poor execution history.
In the UK the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) has granted an “exceptional use authorisation” so that the Innova test can be deployed as a self-testing device as part of the NHS’s national testing programme (the authorisation was granted on the basis of data from the Liverpool pilot). Innova cautions that, as the test has been evaluated only in symptomatic patients, its performance may differ in asymptomatic patients.
All in all, self-testing using lateral flow tests leaves a lot of possibility for misinterpretation of results.
What should the tests be used for?
In a nutshell, lateral flow devices must be used within strictly defined parameters.
The Innova test is being used as a self-test in asymptomatic individuals as a part of the UK’s Test to Find strategy. A positive result is a “red light,” says the Department of Health and Social Care for England, requiring the most infectious individuals and their contacts to rapidly isolate themselves to protect other people from infection.
What should they not be used for?
At present, lateral flow tests are not authorised for “serial testing” of school pupils who have been exposed to a confirmed positive case of covid-19 to enable them to attend school (pupils who are exposed to infected cases have to isolate).
The government had hoped that serial testing would enable it to reopen schools but soon abandoned such plans. (It blamed the U turn on concerns over rising cases of the Kent variant, but it seems it still plans to test the strategy in a small number of trials13). The MHRA has pointed out that lateral flow tests are still not authorised for use in this way.14
The tests also cannot be used to shorten quarantine of travellers arriving in the UK, under the government’s Test to Release scheme. That can be done only with a PCR test result.15
Jon Deeks, who leads the Biostatistics, Evidence Synthesis and Test Evaluation Research Group at the University of Birmingham’s Institute of Applied Health Research, says the health department’s “red light” interpretation of a positive result is a good use of the tests. But a “green light” negative result should not be taken as a sign that all is well, he says, and particularly not to do anything you would not have done otherwise.
That’s hard to control, particularly in a population that has spent over a year enduring lockdowns and social distancing. There is a concern that people who test negative will gain a false sense of security and adopt more risky behaviour. Deeks says studies have shown that people who have recently had a negative result from cancer screening are less likely to have potential symptoms checked out.
Gill agrees. “More and more negative tests are being thrown out there with absolutely no understanding at a serious or psychological scientific level of how to minimise the false reassurance that that generates,” he says.
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n287
Did someone say antibody news is old hat. True that and just 1,100 daily tests a day.
Back to Antigen LFT viral load as was asked to validate the issue with high viral load. I refer you to the British Medical Journal
WHO says that lateral flow tests are more likely to detect positive cases when viral loads are highest and patients are most infectious—typically, one to three days before the onset of symptoms and during the first five to seven days after the onset of symptoms. WHO’s Essential Diagnostics Test states that negative results should never be used as a basis of decision making.
What about asymptomatic people?
All the studies from Public Health England and Oxford University have focused on patients with symptoms.
“Asymptomatic people have a viral load peak that looks to be, on average, lower than the viral load peak of people with symptoms, and it stays at that peak for less long,” says Mike Gill, former regional director of public health for the South East of England.
In other words, if you don’t show symptoms, you shed virus or clear virus more quickly, he says, which means that any test with a relatively low level of sensitivity (such as lateral flow tests, in comparison with PCR tests) could struggle to pick up asymptomatic infections on an “intolerable” number of occasions.
Where the tests have been used among asymptomatic people in real world settings, the reported performance has indeed been lower. In a pilot study conducted in Liverpool 60% of infected asymptomatic people went undetected, including 33% of those with high viral loads.6 Up to 21 January nearly 560 000 lateral flow tests had been done on more than 200 000 Liverpool residents, identifying 4421 people who may not have otherwise known they were likely to be infectious. Among students undergoing lateral flow tests at the University of Birmingham in December, only 3% of those who would have tested positive on PCR were detected.7
This is why WHO recommends repeat testing using lateral flow devices or preferably confirmatory testing with a PCR test after a negative lateral flow test.3
“We already knew that lateral flow tests do appear more accurate with patients who have more virus present,” says Alexander Edwards, associate professor in biomedical technology at the Reading School of Pharmacy. “It follows that they may be better suited to spotting ‘spreaders’ than identifying everyone infected.”8
The question is how to manage false negative results, he says. Are people who receive a negative test result “safe” or “safer” than they were before they were tested?
That’s a worry, particularly as lateral flow tests bought over the counter become more common, and with tests easily bought on the internet and members of the public willing to purchase them for peace of mind.
OK regulator
Gov scraps antibody tests at testing sites
https://www.cityam.com/exclusive-government-scraps-antibody-tests-at-nhs-sites/
You can check antibody daily testing here. Running at 1,100 a day
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing
Government 'operated illegal buy British policy' over Covid contracts
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/22/government-buy-british-policy-covid-contracts-matt-han****?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
Ministers ignored legal advice to give failing company a huge Covid test contract leaving taxpayers with £87MILLION bill when tests didn't work
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9229507/Taxpayers-foot-87m-bill-ministers-failing-company-Covid-contract-cancel-it.html
https://www.ft.com/content/272a4903-4a0c-4736-914a-ca5a4a51ba37
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-government-buying-1-million-home-antibody-tests-for-nationwide-surveillance/
https://www.crowdjustice.com/case/abingdon-health/
UK to buy 1m antibody home tests despite accuracy concerns
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/06/uk-government-to-buy-1m-antibody-tests-despite-accuracy-concerns
Experts say serology tests unreliable, as immunity doesn’t require antibodies
https://www-timesofisrael-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.timesofisrael.com/experts-say-serology-tests-unreliable-as-immunity-doesnt-require-antibodies/amp/?amp_js_v=a6&_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=16117796061035&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.timesofisrael.com%2Fexperts-say-serology-tests-unreliable-as-immunity-doesnt-require-antibodies%2F
Come bsck with an answer to High viral loads and why odx misrepresented antibody results that isn't so they could boost 85% LFT result to meet UK govs 98% minimum standard
By the way i put a warning out on Novacyt board advising folk to keep out unless they had game.
Mr wolf whoever they are invited me over here. So here i am. Been holding on to core of bear thesis since September when i got jitters at point of doing mass antibody tests
You can validate this thesis using Government antibody testing volume data.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing
Also did not like how Omaga skewed their antibody LFT data, 85% in the real world.
Not great whe scientific data needs to be manipulated
And how many genetists do you have working with you?
Do your own research on viral loads and check back with me if you like
"The lateral flow tests missed a third of people with high viral load" Innova BJM, guess they don't know what they are on about either?
Read BJM report on line, look up some genetists or be lucky enough to have 2 very good friends
bmj.com › bmj › bmj.m4848.full.pdf
Web results
Lateral flow tests miss over half of cases, Liverpool pilot ... - The BMJ |
Odd the Antigen LFT validation prioritisation criteria were update 8/02/21 and SureScreen were awarded direct tender on 8th.
Reading the updated regs they could struggle to diagnose asymptomatics like Innova as their test only detects "High viral loads"?
"now in their final stage of validation in clinical trials" NOT APPROVED
In the statement Matt Han**** said Antigen LFT's
"helping us to identify the around 1 in 3 people who are asymptomatic and break chains of transmission in our workplaces and communities. It is excellent to be working with a UK firm to deliver millions more of these rapid tests"
Who's life would you risk?
Why no competitive tender?
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/british-manufacturer-surescreen-diagnostics-to-supply-20-million-rapid-lateral-flow
Have just seen the new deal, digesting it at moment. Have i misjudged Abingdon?
Cooper my condensed twitter structure didn't translate
£761m is the approx cumulative market cap of
Abingdon, #BBI, #Omega, #Avacta, #GeneDrive & #Yourgene.
£565m Novacyt
Approx £28m to £30m v £277m (with Novacyt having £92m cash in the bank)
UK micro > small cap diagnostics snap shot
#Novacyt
Sales - £277m
Cash - £92m
COVID prods on sale - 10+
Market Cap - £565m
#Abingdon, #BBI, #Omega, #Avacta, #GeneDrive (#GDR) & #Yourgene
Sales - £28m > £30m (Yourgene £18>£20m)
Cash -?
COVID prods on sale - 3?
Market Cap - £761m
There's a margin of error to account for BBI accounts which aren't public, awaiting GeneDrive which reports 31/03, Avacta account were published 23/01 last yr.
Say £5m tops. Small fry when you consider imbalance of collective market capitalisations.
https://twitter.com/DopeinkInvest/status/1358869023463776256?s=19
UK micro > small cap diagnostics snap shot
#Novacyt
Sales - £277m
Cash - £92m
COVID prods on sale - 10+
Market Cap - £565m
#Abingdon, #BBI, #Omega, #Avacta, #GeneDrive (#GDR) & #Yourgene
Sales - £28m > £30m (Yourgene £18>£20m)
Cash -?
COVID prods on sale - 3?
Market Cap - £761m
There's a margin of error to account for BBI accounts which aren't public, awaiting GeneDrive which reports 31/03, Avacta account were published 23/01 last yr.
Say £5m tops. Small fry when you consider imbalance of collective market capitalisations.
https://twitter.com/DopeinkInvest/status/1358869023463776256?s=19
UK micro > small cap diagnostics snap shot
#Novacyt
Sales - £277m
Cash - £92m
COVID prods on sale - 10+
Market Cap - £565m
#Abingdon, #BBI, #Omega, #Avacta, #GeneDrive (#GDR) & #Yourgene
Sales - £28m > £30m (Yourgene £18>£20m)
Cash -?
COVID prods on sale - 3?
Market Cap - £761m
There's a margin of error to account for BBI accounts which aren't public, awaiting GeneDrive which reports 31/03, Avacta account were published 23/01 last yr.
Say £5m tops. Small fry when you consider imbalance of collective market capitalisations.
https://twitter.com/DopeinkInvest/status/1358869023463776256?s=19
UK micro > small cap diagnostics snap shot
#Novacyt
Sales - £277m
Cash - £92m
COVID prods on sale - 10+
Market Cap - £565m
#Abingdon, #BBI, #Omega, #Avacta, #GeneDrive (#GDR) & #Yourgene
Sales - £28m > £30m (Yourgene £18>£20m)
Cash -?
COVID prods on sale - 3?
Market Cap - £761m
There's a margin of error to account for BBI accounts which aren't public, awaiting GeneDrive which reports 31/03, Avacta account were published 23/01 last yr.
Say £5m tops. Small fry when you consider imbalance of collective market capitalisations.
https://twitter.com/DopeinkInvest/status/1358869023463776256?s=19
UK micro > small cap diagnostics snap shot
#Novacyt
Sales - £277m
Cash - £92m
COVID prods on sale - 10+
Market Cap - £565m
#Abingdon, #BBI, #Omega, #Avacta, #GeneDrive (#GDR) & #Yourgene
Sales - £28m > £30m (Yourgene £18>£20m)
Cash -?
COVID prods on sale - 3?
Market Cap - £761m
There's a margin of error to account for BBI accounts which aren't public, awaiting GeneDrive which reports 31/03, Avacta account were published 23/01 last yr.
Say £5m tops. Small fry when you consider imbalance of collective market capitalisations.
https://twitter.com/DopeinkInvest/status/1358869023463776256?s=19