Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Dibs61 thanks for the correction. Just a casual observer here
Just Director buys over at Novacyt's y'all
L18th Feb:
Mr. Rhodes - 450,000 stock options (100%) £0.91 (£409k)
. Holds a further 1,380,406 Ordinary Shares
15th Feb:
William Rhodes - sold 300,000 (100%)
Jeremy Millard - 166,666 (24%)
Jag Grewal - sold 210,000 (47%)
Kieron Harbinson - sold 1,115,000 (67.9%)
Say what!!!
Surfie1961 i can understand your frustrations with the SP and radio silence. If you choose to go elsewhere that will be a personal decision, clearly you don't speak for other investors. I'd image value investors and institutional investors who have been quietly accumulating in the background will be happy to buy sold shares. ii ownership is up from under 5% in October to approx 11.4% currently.
Other companies have offered promise and hopes for best part of 10 months and we're a yr into the virus. Meanwhile Novacyt have sold £277m of tests, cleared their debt, built cash balance of £92m, embedded themselves within UK national infrastructure and target markets enabling them to leverage tests positions for future non COVID saves and have a proven track record of designing, manufacturing and selling their test. From my analysis Novacyt now have far more in common with the diagnostics wings of Thermo Fisher, Roche, Abbott and PerkinElmer than fledgling micro revenue AIM's. Markets and especially AIM investors can be irrational. Assuming the Q's DHSC contract is invoked and Novacyt receive their proportional share of £22b PCR Tender it's going to become very difficult for these levels of irrationality to persist imo
https://novacytinsider.com/earnings-call-2021/
Surfie1961 i can understand your frustrations with the SP and radio silence. If you choose to go elsewhere that will be a personal decision, clearly you can't speak for all private investors. I'd image those Pi's who do sell will be passing their shares onto institutional investors who are quietly accumulating in the background. ii ownership is up from under 5% in October to approx 11.4% currently.
Other companies have offered promise and hopes for best part of 10 months and we're a yr into the virus. Meanwhile Novacyt have sold £277m of tests, cleared their debt, built cash balance of £92m, embedded themselves within UK national infrastructure and within its target markets which they can
which they have proven track record of designing, manufacturing and selling their tests,and have far more in common with the diagnostics wings of Thermo Fisher, Roche, Abbott and PerkinElmer than fledgling micro revenue AIM's imo. Markets and especially AIM investors can be irrational. Is worth spending sometime looking up rather than down
https://novacytinsider.com/earnings-call-2021/
Ventura1 for your reference I'm half of the Insider lol
Novacyt appeared to be waiting until further in 2021 before committing to a revenue forecast, the large cap diagnostics whales were much less guarded. Abbott, Perkin Elmer, Thermo Fisher and Roche revealed their analyst forecasts for covid testing for the year ahead in earnings calls last month, and number of common themes emerged, the most notable that testing for covid ramped up significantly in Q4 2020 and is set to continue to the first half of 2021. The numbers make for interesting reading and even once peak testing is reached, likely in the second half on 2021, the revenues are still staggering in the period ahead. Where they diverge in their analysis is also revealing, and likely informs us to a degree about their strategy and weight of various covid product lines and markets they’re embedded within.
Novacyt continues a key theme alongside the earnings calls for the Big Four below, in that they are all continuing to launch new products well into the year ahead, even though vaccinations are likely to begin showing some effect. Clearly all analysts consider the return on investment of new covid products in 2021 and 2022 to provide a more significant return over organic non-covid assay sales, and that is bolstered by the fact that the pandemic is truly global, hinting at years of sustainable multi covid portfolio revenues.
Roche is a standout below as they did not reveal covid test sales distinct from overall group sales, however they made interesting insights on longevity. As cases get driven down by the vaccine they believe this will intensify other types of testing such as population surveillance, screening, antibody testing and flu/covid multiplex sales.
Thermo Fisher, Abbott and Roche are strongly aligned on both the decentralisation of testing being the future of diagnostics, and also on the opportunity provided by the testing instrument installations to pivot into mass screening programs after the pandemic. Notable mentions went to HPV and tuberculosis. This closely fits Novacyt’s narrative and shows they’re on the right track with their R&D and acquisition spend.
The future of diagnostics is clearly defined by the lead players, and the race is on to innovate and install decentralised instruments in as many territories as possible while government funding boosts this momentum. Although instrument sales are a relatively minor portion of the revenues shown below, (merely 10% for Perkin Elmer for example), in terms of future revenue growth, they are the most critical aspect now. It’s in this light that Novacyt’s acquisition of IT-IS and manufacturing boost makes increasing sense. They will need to drive harder in this area than any other, and innovate faster too with revisions and new models of the Q-series to make them even faster and easier to use....
See article for the rest
https://novacytinsider.com/earnings-call-2021/
Ventura1 what a coincidence hey!
"Quickdraw I am suprised that you are unaware that Tay discontinued the Insider some months ago"
Here is something you can't understand ;-)
https://novacytinsider.com/earnings-call-2021/
What a dope surprise, what were the odds
https://novacytinsider.com/earnings-call-2021/
Do you lot who commented to my helpful post believe your non CE marked test is being sent out in the post?
Sorry Mburns. Stood out as we seem to have been on similar journey.
I went through all the COVID companies back in Feb, crossed of the high cap players and most of the crappy little players
We do differ on views of Graham. I can understand the need for radio silence, have been on the opposite side of the fence and had my suppliers bow to me. They didn't talk unless i allow them to. And even then i approved all statements. National security trumps commercial interests
I'm waiting for reality and tender notifications
No I didn't.
mburns70, Tay apology?
My bad, I miss read. I do need a shower to cool off lol
That's a lot of words and no apology.
Why don't you try again.
I'm off for a shower
Read the Professor of Biostatistics Deeks words. Best not screen out his sarcasm, do you remember your first kiss?
"Good 1st results @avacta but make sure all studies are reported and peer reviewed so the evidence is clear to the world. @mologic are setting the standard on how this should be done. And tests need to work at Ct>25. That’s a false dichotomy used for marketing poor tests."
https://twitter.com/deeksj/status/1361973306635792386?s=19
What do I know.? Don't see many posting quotes, facts, links just trying personal attacks as if I care. There are some exceptions on this BB, most of us can learn and grown
https://youtu.be/L9Bq4sOnfQE
mburns70 you have your time lines mixed up. Tay started posting around August. Co-Diagnostics were at the $3's in Feb. Maybe I didn't understand you.
In Q3 Co-Diagnostics posted only $21.82m rev and only sold 10m tests by 14th December.
As a comparison Novacyt sold $287m in second half.
I'd suggest you recall your comments about Tay. Mistakes happen, facts are hard to argue against
Ndn71 appreciate the good natured response. We never learn about our investments only considering the positive. I'm always happy to read valid arguments against my investments as helps assess risk. As I see it Affimers are competing against antibodies in therapeutics and LFT's for antigen detection.
I play with my LFT banter, there's room for both PCR and LFT. Will come down to can Avacta ultimately execute their current plans.
Will Affimers be tolerated, will Toxicity levels be too high. Antibodies as demonstrated by some of the COVID treatments can be tolerated. Though maybe not as useful in COVID therapeutics due to rapid mutation of Spike protein causing binding issues
PS y'all im Dopeink on twitter, you could spot this from reading my posting history
Mburns I too looked at Co diagnostics. IMO we dodged a bullet there. Have you checked back on them?
Also share price rarely reflects reality, especially in wild West of AIM. Folk on AIM seem to prefer dreams. But as long as the Q contract is extended (ProMATE looks to have resolved work flow, usability issues) and we get our fair share of the £22b PCR tender it will be hard for reality not too reset SP.
As a side note, in this small study of 16 labs Novacyt was second to Cepheid in popularity. Couple of the larger players aren't on the list, but a nice sign
25% representation within the labs sampled
https://t.co/voiqlqIIb7
Appreciate the response van v. A rarity.
As you may recall I was the person to initiate the Optigene take over rumour on here back In May. I'm less inclined to think so now. Nova have their own LAMP coming out which they have RNS's.
If they were buying Optigene I don't think they would have used prior LAMP statements. After all how could they confirm LAMP test prior to crossing T's and dotting I'S. Also the value of Optigenes LAMP contract I think over values them.
Nova should be looking for £20m and under purchases. Foreign based sales teams would make sense to me as well as IP purchases.
I've been a big fan of a CAR-T purchase. One to watch, that's my NIp tip
I'm laying down haha
Any takers?
What happened to CONDOR approval?
Why using unnamed EU organisation to approve initial batch?
How long until you make your first batch on production equipment for full clinical approval?
How many months will this take?
Why has it taken a year of COVID for you to test 26 clinical samples with high viral loads?