Pass the salt: Here’s how sodium-ion batteries could topple lithium demand forecasts28 Nov 2023 09:40
Pass the salt: Here’s how sodium-ion batteries could topple lithium demand forecasts
For now Sodium ion is the only viable EV battery chemistry that doesn’t need lithium
Cons: slower charging, lower energy density; Pros: cheaper, safer, longer lasting vs lithium-ion
Sodium-ion battery buildouts now appearing at pace, with CATL, BYD and Northvolt at the forefront
Could represent half the Chinese domestic EV market by 2030: analyst George Heppel
Electric vehicles must be made affordable for the technology to become ubiquitous.
However, volatile prices for critical raw materials like lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese add a big layer of complexity for carmakers, which have committed to some very ambitious EV targets.
Prices have softened in 2023, but analysis generally suggests persistent and deepening shortages of these battery metals, with Benchmark Mineral Intelligence estimating ~340 new graphite, lithium, nickel, and cobalt mines will be needed in the next 12 years.
That includes 74 new lithium mines with an average size of 45,000 tonnes LCE.
OEMs are aggressively pursuing lithium-ion alternatives but, while countless technologies have been lauded as potential disruptors, barely any make it out of the lab. Those that do still need lithium.
The giant killer
There is one real threat to lithium demand outlook; sodium ion, or Na-ion, currently the only viable chemistry that does not contain lithium.
Sodium-ion is cheaper, safer, longer lasting, and better in cold temps than lithium-ion but, like LFP, ostensibly suffers from a slower charge rate and lower energy density.
Not so good for those long trips down the coast, but ideal for a suburban run-around.
Still in its infancy, sodium-ion battery buildouts are now being announced at pace, as prophesied in January by BloombergNEF’s Top 10 Energy Storage Trends in 2023.
“An alternative to lithium-ion batteries, sodium-ion battery technology offers could alleviate battery-market pressures — and potentially push down costs — as soon as 2026,” it said.
“For 2023, we speculate that at least one major battery manufacturer will come out with a significant sodium-ion battery product roadmap announcement.”
Three months later battery behemoth CATL said its sodium-ion batteries – unveiled mid 2021 – would make their debut in Chery Auto’s EVs.
CATL, which also sells batteries to all the major Western carmakers, including Tesla, Volkswagen, Nissan, and Ford, says sodium-ion battery manufacturing “is perfectly compatible with the lithium-ion battery production equipment and processes”.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/pass-the-salt-here-s-how-sodium-ion-batteries-could-topple-lithium-demand-forecasts/ar-AA1kDauB
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