RE: Copper flying...20 Nov 2020 13:13
Morning Copperpot, I normally agree with you, however I do believe that we will get a deal.
We must not forget that components in the car industry work nowadays on just in time. Every car company is dependent on components, both in the EU and the UK.
The whole industry will not come to a halt, but just in time saves on storage costs, and also quick identification of failures, and updated MTBF figures ( mean time between failures ).
On food we will get some disruption as these have the highest tariffs ( between 30-50% possible ).
However UK businesses will be free to trade with the rest of the world, and we can adjust our tariffs independently, to favour the types of markets that we want to assist. So very quickly imports will move suppliers from the EU to other parts of the world, unless we get a deal on agricultural produce.
Also Biden will give the UK a deal, remember the Northern Ireland backstop could not be removed under any circumstances, it was removed, and conditions were put down to keep Northern Ireland in the single market, and under the ECJ. This was a trap, and so Parliaments bill to stop this, will put a stop to this nonsense, as both sides have said, if a deal is done, that this becomes null and void.
I have been amazed on the discussion on banking, as European companies get 70% of their finance through the city, and although that would become more expensive under a no deal, guess who is going to pay those extra costs. ( it won't be us )
This may appear a mess at the moment, but to simplify:
If we leave without a deal we can alter our tariffs on the world stage, the EU cannot.
We will get trade deals with the Commonwealth 2.4 billion people.
We will get a deal with the USA, remember TTIP, going over 30 years, and no USA president can get a deal with the EU, and their economies are even more divergent today.
Watch this space, especially next Thursday, as to my mind with the last EU summit, this is when the anger will come, but we will get a limited deal, to avert the worst effects.
The UK will prosper, and the EU will have to tell it's members are going to have to pay increased contributions. Germany has already refused to pay these, and Hollands Mark Rutte, has said a 40% increase for his country isn't going to happen.