Member Info for Qd22

Yes. I sold in May .... and went away .... to buy a house. Fortunate timing. Looking like a nice time to come back in again. Surely the directors know better than me - HS2 notwithstanding.

Thanks for pointing that out, Rivaldo. I've been out of most things for a while due to a house purchase, now sorted and moving back in. VLE also. That's what got me off my backside!

Yes. From what we know I find a strong temptation to invest further: but what gives me pause is the lack of information. If all is well it seems to me incompetent that they don't tell us so. Hopefully the reason is the lack of an FD: but as you say it is time that was rectified, however hard it may be for them to move on. And there should be news on it.

ATB everyone.

So sorry. Wish you well.

If the news of the collapse is true - and I expect most of us believe it - this is sad. Not only for those of us who have lost a lot of our savings, and some clearly have, but also for the local community and the southwest.

Me, I've lost some. Less than many. What can I learn?

My initial investment was fairly small in my terms [miniscule to some, a lot to others, of course]. But I topped up when it had fallen a lot, making it a reasonable stake for me for an individual company. So, probably all gone. As others have said: that's the risk we take.

I suppose my main lesson is the old saying: CUT my losers, run my winners. Because I am greedy and like a bargain, and believe in my initial ideas, I want to do the opposite. The trouble is that big winners can get way ahead of themselves: it's knowing when to take some profits, and when to invest more. Buffett apparently tops up his winners, such as Coca Cola: he has the skill to know when they are still good value and not froth.

But it's cutting the losers that is not easy. Unless I can be really self-critical [humble!!] I usually still believe in a share I have bought into. Are those reasons still valid? Bin it anyway?! I suppose the discipline of stop losses is a very good idea, and do it however much I am convinced by the share. There will always be others. Buffett again: 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rules of investing are all the same: 'Don't lose money'. :( 'Too late, too late, the well-fed walrus cried....'

Another lesson for me: listen to those on these boards I really respect. don't invest when those guys are absent entirely. Sorry to pontificate, friends. But it helps me!!

Anyone got any ideas what's been going on today?

I've been out for a few months due to a house purchase, but am now looking for the right time to return.

From the final results in March:

"The lead time to get new tools into production is approximately 9-12 months, from which time a fully utilised tool making VCSELs has a payback of c. 1 year."

I hadn't realised it was so long, but it explains why things have been so quiet. But we must be beginning to get near. It is an amazingly long time, and is maybe an indication of the incredible complexity of these processes, which would be some form of a technological moat for IQE, and much to our advantage. Payback of 1 year is amazing considering the costs of the machine and such a long and expensive lead time: again very promising (speaking as someone with no experience of these things whatsoever!)

As for the SP, I think back to the £100 million easily raised from the institutions nearly a year ago, since when the news has only got better, except poor Rasmussen. I'm struggling with the temptation to bet the farm, especially if it goes below 80.

They don’t appear to be worried about next week. But one thing I’m sure of is that they don’t know anything we don’t know. It’s just a matter of collective action. No matter. All being well we’ll get the result in the end. I suspect that while next week will not be the end of it it will be the beginning of the end, and the New Year should see a big change. Just my guess.

Following a solid right hook I've just taken a mandatory 8 count... ie house purchase necessitated coming out for a month or 4.... but I'm looking forward to getting back in here when the finances sort out. Dv!

Appreciate the ongoing info, Rivaldo. :)

Are you saying that Rowe Price have increased their holding of shares by 1.3% and loaned them all out to the shorters? I have never fully got my mind round the shorting world: I suppose now I had better. It saddens me to have to do it.

But it sounds as if TRP in the end have a huge interest in the share doing well. Is that correct? Can they just be doing this to hold the price down to increase their holding for the long term? Or to gain voting power for a takeover bid? That is the one worry for me: I am quite sure both the Chinese and Americans want their hands on this very much indeed, and if a lot of Chinese groups are accumulating just below the declaration limit I am quite sure they will act in concert and their national interest if it came to it. A bid of say 200 could look very good now, compared to where it's been for a while, and it might do the job: but for what IQE has really got it would be a giveaway.

One thing that encourages me is that with all this shorting still the price stays around this level. It is not pushed further down. The PEG is great. Unless the company needs money, which I don't think they do at the moment, does the low price really affect them?

People say with all this shorting they must know something. I really can't see that. With so many groups seeming to know it, after all this time I'm personally sure it would have come out by now. No, it seems far more likely to be just the hope that if everyone piles on they will get something. It was a group called Muddy Waters who did the name calling a while back, but (a) they seemed to have been refuted (b) we've heard nothing more about it, and (c) according to Wikipedia they are being investigated in Germany for alleged market manipulation. Are you really going to trust them?? They are a major interested party.

I doubled my holding last week.

One final thing that encourages me: this board. It is a really sensible discussion. We've lost the "Buy, buy, buy" brigade long ago. The price is quite stable, for AIM. I wonder: for me, it feels like a bottom. Even if the way up is slow. :) ATB everyone.

Me too.

MACOM are beginning to commercialise and ramp the GaN on silicon now, as Rivaldo pointed out on Wednesday: "Our GaN and FEM products have begun to ramp across multiple customers and platforms for both macro base station and massive mono deployments. Q3 revenue included the start of early volume production on GaN shipments, supporting initial field deployments. We also expanded our pipeline of GaN design wins at target accounts, securing new business at 4.9 gigahertz."

NIL is also in production now: "Cardiff, UK, 09 July 2018. IQE (AIM:IQE) announces that its proprietary NanoImprint Lithography ("NIL") technology has reached a significant milestone. The new technology offering has been production qualified by a leading supplier of Distributed Feedback ("DFB") lasers into the telecoms industry, and the first production order for USD 250,000 has been received. Production will commence immediately."

These are not qualifications but production now.

In the March finals they said this: "Whilst VCSEL has been the star of the show, our InP business continues to perform well. This market is being driven by the need for higher speed, higher capacity fibre optic systems to address continuing growth in data traffic. As a result, more sophisticated materials solutions are becoming critical to achieve higher levels of performance.  To address this evolving market, IQE has developed novel technologies which enable higher performance with lower cost of manufacture. This includes an innovative solution for Distributed Feedback Lasers (DFB's) for high speed FTTX chips.  We are engaged in qualifications with several customers for this technology, which are expected to ramp into production in over the next 6-12 months."

6-12 months from March starts September. While I don't understand the tech it looks like what they say about InP is not the same as the NIL, though it also affects DFB lasers: otherwise I would expect they would have mentioned InP in the NIL RNS.

All very encouraging for immediate consequences to those all-important figures. Agree??

Average sale price well up, driven by the X.

That's great news for us.

And it will be telling the other manufacturers what they just can't be doing without: IQE products.

Yes, there may be the usual shenanigans - it's one to hold. Simon Thomson in the called it one of the most frustrating shares he had ever covered. That was 3 or 4 years ago at 19 or 20p: up 5 times since then. Don't sell!

Useful discussion. Thanks everyone.

"NB Scott says at about 31:30 [ om the voxmarkets podcast TTT found] "WE bring the finance".

What do you think that means?"

.... and I owe Bolgas a vote of thanks. You've come up with a load of useful information, angles and questions that if I am going to invest I have the option to follow up and investigate. That's my responsibility. I've never worked in the commercial world so I'm not very good at the research - and I'll never be an accountant. So it's very useful when people highlight the ins and outs that need to be looked at. Thank you.

The more I think about it the more concerned I am about this.

Where are they going to get the money????

That word 'WE' is very strange to me: slipped in so quietly. What concerns me is that they may be near the end of their resources, and not getting contracts. Surely there would be a great temptation for a final fling: push Get 3 out ready or not, within a few days announce a wonder deal in their ideal space - but still subject to finance, hope the attention makes them serious players for a time, they pull in some real contracts, and then later "Oh dear, finance failed on this one, but we're going great on the others..." Just a temptation, I'm not saying they have of course: for obvious reasons. DYOR, etc.

If they get some real contracts, great. At that point I'll be investing my entire lottery jackpot winnings [lol]!! Until then, well, I'm still watching carefully. ATB, everyone. Thanks again, Bolgas!

PS. Wouldn't it be great if it DID work.... The risk is massive, to my eyes, but the reward is gigantic.

NB Scott says at about 31:30 [ om the voxmarkets podcast TTT found] "WE bring the finance".

What do you think that means?

Frustrating. Though I don't like Scott & co I held this because of the gigantic opportunity and potential, and potential for good in the world. Then had to sell a few weeks ago for personal reasons, planning to come back in again soon. Then it blows... **££@!!

Now as you 'few investors here', and I'm not one of them. Murphy, you're a pain!

I'm really an innocent with regard to this stuff, shorting etc. Only in the last 3 or 4 years starting to invest in individual shares rather than funds only. Never dreamt of touching shorts, after what I saw them do in the crash of '87. Where I, um, learnt a lot!

But I'm just wondering if this is a great technique on the part of the big players to get hold of the big stakes they plan to hold long term. They need a good number, but most were in the hands of PI's, who were very happy with them and never going to let go. So in the fund raise they pick up a reasonable slice and use them through shorting to batter the PI's till many give up and move on. They pick up the proceeds and eventually will have to let it rise, both because more and more shares are away from the PI's and there are diminishing returns, and because as long as IQE keep on as they are the value will have to come out in the end. It will be a very hard share to take over, Drew has done his stuff there, and so it is in their interest in the end for the price to gain it's proper level, and more if possible.

I noted a few days ago that IQE is now the largest holding in Herald IT. They're moving in, but want to do it on the cheap.

As a PI, of course, the more the price goes up, the more I want to hold on to it. So how to loosen my sticky fingers...?

I'm out right now, needed funds for a house, but hope to be back in again soon.

The question is about air conditioning. It uses a huge amount of energy, but with climate change is set to increase vastly, and soon. Anyone who can come up with new ideas and solutions will do very well, and do a great deal of good as well.

Does anyone know of a UK company at the cutting edge in this?

Thanks. QD

Yes. Relaxed, and quietly very optimistic.