Member Info for Qd22

Thanks for pointing this out in October. Having been out and missed the big jump (as with others - rats) I took advantage, at 1100.

Doesn't always pay back quickly: NTQ has taken forever to get the benefit of its cash pile. Nevertheless, waiting in hope. And interesting what you say here about buybacks.

We've dropped about 40%. But Lumentum is down about 33%, Aixtron 21% and AMS 46% - all from sometime this last month. And while Lumentum is clearly in the same timeframe as IQE the others are not, so it looks more general. That perspective helps me. (And it helps me not to just fire off against the board, whom I have no specific complaints about: shorters are not in their control - they can be almost a compliment, nor is Apple over-ordering). What shakes you a bit is the sheer power of Apple.

With a 20% fall today I'm that much more grateful for your advice the other day, AdJshare!

Thanks Velo!

As an LTH I feel quite unaffected by this. It's just a temptation to go in too deep, with the pe down into the low 30's.

What has changed long term? Nothing unless there is concealment going on - and however incompetent you feel the RNS was last night, it does shout honesty.

What HAS changed is that their MAIN revenue stream - wireless - is performing BETTER than expected, as is infrared, just about. That is great news.

And they believe they still retain 90% of this new and expanding market: "We believe that we have retained approximately 90% share of the VCSEL epi-wafer market that we enjoyed last year and based on early initial indications, we expect a similar market share in FY 2019, but with a significantly broader OEM end customer spread as the technology penetrates many more devices and applications." Retaining share is great, and if it does spread to new applications that's yet greater.

Personally, I think the biggest question is how big the moat is. It's not at all my area of experience but it seems to me
(a) It is highly technical, and not amenable to copying. How do you first analyse and then copy stuff on a nano-level?
(b) They have a major IP advantage in the form not only of patents, but also of experience.
(c) Clearly it takes real time to get set up to produce these things: even to change production of the machines from one product to another takes months (no wonder there was overproduction, and overbuying, last year), let alone to set up new machines and get them producing. Even with their experience. My guess is that is at least one reason they expect to retain 90% of the market next year also: for that time they'll be almost alone.
These seem to me to add up to a massive short term moat, and a considerable longer term one. If they continue to focus on being reliable partners with quality product - as well - they will be very hard to dislodge when others start to produce.

The next question is just how large the market is for these things? And is there another technology that could muscle in? Not that I have heard.

Last week I asked in Curry's/PCWorld about getting my hands on an iPhone XR. They said they couldn't get their hands on enough stock - one colour was sold out.

As an unsophisticated investor my reactions have run like this:
1. Goodness, not again.
2. It must refer to Apple, ultimately. But not clear so far.
3. Looks like a massive over-reaction. In the March figures photonics were 31% of revenues. Thus if they HALVED they would be down total 15%, far less than today's fall. Incredibly unlikely that they would halve given that the year is largely through and all has been well so far. And the SP hasn't exactly been racing away in anticipation this year, has it?
4. If this is real it may be Apple is switching supplier, but to another one supplied by IQE. Taking production in-house sounds unlikely to me: given how long it has taken experienced IQE to bring the new machines online I would be surprised if Apple had mastered the trick with no one knowing.
5. But I really wonder if this is real, and not Muddy Waters' younger brother muddying the water again. There's been so much dirty play. [As far as I know Muddy Waters is still being investigated by the German authorities for market manipulation - DYOR].
6. Slightly worried that it could be a state player. There is a lot at stake here. Even dirtier water.
7. The present headline SP of 67 is incredibly tempting, even to those that have already bet the farm. But it won't be us who gets to trade in at that level. Eurrrgh!

Let me know where I'm clearly wrong, please. Ta.

....back in November. Grateful that it has paused for breath (given the spread), and looking for those great things from the interims on. I hope they are able to capitalise on their recently gained geothermal skills and experience. Seems to me a great 2nd string to the bow - and would make the green man in me a lot happier.

Really like this. If I was a global supplier looking to replace several legacy systems with one worldwide system I would put a great deal of research into it before going for something I was absolutely sure would do the job, with no mess-ups and no teething. Confidence inspiring that this is a leader.

Thank you AdJshare. Really useful.

At least now they seem to have some work to do!

All the very best, Brad. Condolences. Some things are somewhat more important than AVN’s accounting.

Don't know what to say about this one. I sold out at the end of May, necessity for a house purchase, having made quite a loss anyway, but clearly 6.9 is better than 4.1 where it now stands.

Not a single comment after the half year results: everyone depressed, or everyone left? Looks like Rivaldo's out: he'll usually comment on anything material.

What looks to me like a large Baronsmead purchase in July didn't move the share price at all, and excited no comment, so I must be misunderstanding it.

I could buy back in now, it's very very low, but there seems to be a total dearth of any good news at all.

Any thoughts anyone?

Thank you very much Mark.

Yes, I've been involved in IQE also. Fortunately I bought in on an IC (Simon Thomson) recommendation way down at below 18p so the fall and long wallow hasn't been as hard to bear as for some. But it's amazing how far they can keep falling. I thought IQE must have plumbed its depths at 130 [down from 180, and where the institutions had earlier coughed up 100 mill], then again at 100: but as you will know it's been below 80 and has been mainly in the 80's for a while. What was it someone said about markets remaining irrational for longer than you can stay solvent? [By the way, it's been very interesting to me how Simon Thomson has completely shut up about IQE, and the other articles in IC and the FT have been consistently so apparently ignorant as to seem to me - NB 'ME', just a punter ie for obvious legal reasons I'm not saying they were - completely untruthful. I gather a recent one was better: 'balanced'.]

The point you make about not picking no-hopers is interesting and important, and a new thought to me. Useful. If I understand what you've said right I suppose the last thing they want is to drive the company under: they need in the end for the shares to rise above the price they borrowed them at or the lender loses out, and at least above where they bought in lower. Like all parasites killing the host is a bad idea.

But is it a necessity that there is an internal problem in the host company? [The host/parasite image seems very appropriate]. If they pick a time like just passed when the company has fallen in a fragile and falling market is it not better for them to pick a company that has no problems and will more likely recover? In that kind of market a company with a high P/E would likely I guess fall more than most, and will just need their push to fall even further - without any unseen problems. [In spite of speculation and allegations for a year nothing at all has actually come out re IQE.]

Apologies all for going on a bit. It just helps me to work it out!

Thanks guys. Useful.

So I'm guessing there's no bad company news? The news about Google and Groupon looked good to me.

I'm pretty ignorant on shorts. A couple of questions:
1. I take it the short in itself doesn't exert a continuing downward pressure, just when taken out? Apart from the psychological effect?
2. What goes down must eventually come up - when they have to be redeemed?
3. After good news re g&g as above, could this just be a way to engineer an even better opening price in a company they like at a time the market itself was falling?
4. I see a huge 'buy' on the lse trades page, at 1300, that didn't appear to move the price at all. Is it that we can't trust those pages at all, was it a summation of earlier trades, or what?

Thanks.

"The fact that shares in Watkin Jones (WJG:207p), a construction company specialising in purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) and private rented housing, held their value during October’s market rout is testament to the strength of its business offering as a full-year pre-close trading update highlighted.

Having completed all 10 PBSA schemes and delivered 3,415 beds for the start of the 2018/19 academic year, the directors have tweaked up their full-year revenue and underlying earnings guidance. The news prompted analysts at brokerage Peel Hunt to pencil in a 13 per cent rise in underlying pre-tax profit to £49.5m and that excludes a £4m one-off profit the board also revealed in the company’s trading update. Net funds are expected to have risen by almost half to £60m, or 23p a share, over the 12 month trading period to end September 2018, according to analysts at Equity Development, adding weight to expectations of a double-digit hike in the payout per share to 7.4p and one covered more than two times over by EPS.

Moreover, all bar 77 of the 2,723 beds slated for delivery in the new financial year have already been forward sold, and so too have 70 per cent of the 2,606 beds scheduled for delivery in the 2019/20 financial year. This solid pipeline not only significantly de-risks earnings forecasts, but with the company targeting delivery of 1,500 build to rent apartments over the course of the next three financial years, and entering into development agreements with major institutional investors, then there is a solid and growing contribution from private rented housing to augment the PBSA revenue stream. The board are still considering the option of spinning off the build to rent business into a new investment vehicle to enhance shareholder value.

There is no doubt in my mind that Watkin Jones’ shares remain undervalued even after doubling in value since I initiated coverage around the 100p mark at the IPO ('A profitable education', 3 April 2016). That’s because the forward cash-adjusted PE ratio is only 11 for the 2018/19 financial year, falling to 10 the year after. The board have also paid out total dividends per share of 13.07p in the past two and a half years, and the progressive dividend policy is well underpinned by the cash flow generated from completed developments. The respective prospective dividend yields are 3.9 per cent and 4 per cent.

So, having last advised buying the shares, at 207p, ahead of last week’s trading update ('Watkin Jones offers robust visibility', 4 October 2018), I maintain my positive stance and reaffirm 250p target price. Buy."

Have I missed something??

Can someone point to a reason - or even a trigger - for this?

More than twice as many sold as bought today, and yet price up over 6%. Will never understand this stuff.

....even more.

If there's any fund I trust to get it right it's them. Done very well from their smaller companies fund over a long time.

Ouch!

Been out to fund a big purchase.

:((

... in a sea of red. That's encouraging: when they're out on their own like that.