Member Info for Qd22

For some reason I can’t copy and paste the address, but if you Google long Covid and interferon a Scientific American article will come up for the 7th of September. It is very useful with regard to the complexities and timing of interferon treatment, but is basically a thumbs up for early treatment with interferon, but not later.

Last week I reduced strongly my holding both here and in Faron. Faron is trialling IV interferon. Having been in early because the science was so good my stake was too large for safety, even after transferring some to Faron, which had not participated in the July jump. Over the weekend I began to wonder if I’ve made a mistake with regard to SNG, as more and more articles seem to be pointing towards interferon as a treatment, and today have bought back what I sold. I’m not a trader, simply rectifying a mistake. Now I’ve got my mind around the MA P announcement this morning I’m also happy with that. It is some kind of a way forward after what seemed otherwise to be a vacuum.

Good point, though the lack of a control group, selected for equivalence, would be a drawback. Do you think this mornings's RNS means that SNG have given up on the UK government then? Is this desperation?

That is useful, Dumbpunter, thank you. I'm guessing we are NOT headed for phase III trials. Wish it was more than a guess, we are shareholders, and I think the tree we are barking up should be made clear.

There's so much discussion and interesting opinion flying around that I confess to being pretty confused.

Back in March/April it was so clear: on a great scientific basis they were doing a gold standard phase II hospital patient trial, and then extending it to patients at home, and if the results were as expected we would either go straight into phase III or get some kind of exemption and start to treat patients.

The results were fantastic, better than anyone could expect, statistically significacy for efficacy as well as safety.

And I don't know what has happened since. Over 2 months on, with many thousands of people dieing worldwide.

I want to know
1. Are we going for phase III trials, or not? Have I missed something massive? I could well have done.
2. What are the results of the home trials? By memory I think they were due in August and I don't remember hearing anything.
3. If we are NOT going for phase III trials (as above, have I missed something?), what routes are we actually pursuing? What tree are we barking up?

Is it me, or is there a VACUUM?

@JoeyDiamond.
Your link goes to the US National Library of Medicine, big form I find hard to be confident I have understood correctly. The meat of it seems to me to be under Study Design:

"Randomised double-blind placebo-controlled

Pilot phase - 100 patients randomised in the hospital setting, 120 patients randomised in the home setting.

Pivotal phase - estimated at an additional 100 to 300 patients per arm, but the actual number will be determined after the data review at the end of the Pilot phase"

Clearly the pilot phase is what we got the results of in July. We have had no details at all about getting on with the Pivotal phase. And it has "No results posted" on the results tab, which is disappointing, given that the Pilot phase is very relevant and provided statistically significant results for clinical benefit, even it it is actually designed I think for safety, hence the small-ish number of patients - making clinical benefit very hard to establish at that stage. [You need to have a humdinger of a treatment to statistically establish clinical benefit with a small number - which Synairgen has done. We do have a humdinger.]

That clarifies things a little for me: but also concerns me. Again: what is going on? People are dieing - worldwide. One hears government has given so many contracts on tests etc to unproven obscure groups: does SNG just not have the right back-slapping ministerial mates??

That's what I suggested to my minister MP 2 months ago. No reply of course.

@Mike29 & Scinv - great to know we're all on the same track! Great minds, and all that... Crossed posts, that't the trouble with crafting a long post.

People keep saying that it needs further tests, but

1. The July results, though on a smallish number of patients, were so good that they were statistically significant for benefit. Thus we KNOW it saves lives, which was frankly very very very likely before those test results - the virus had to be a whole new departure for it not to work.

2. We do know now it is safe, not only from the Covid trials but also the COPD trials. Further tests are for efficacy.

3. There is no word of further tests happening???? The last I think we have from the company is what I highlighted yesterday:
"Synairgen is in discussions with a number of regulatory agencies worldwide to establish the regulatory route to the approval of SNG001 as a treatment for COVID-19. We are also working closely with the Company's manufacturing partners on scale-up activity and will provide a further update on these matters in due course." That's not tests it's just talks.

4. Do we have the results of the home trials yet? As far as I know not, the July results were for "hospitalised patients".

So really, what on earth is happening? I keep writing to my MP, a minister I am frankly ashamed of. I suggest everyone does similar. Please, please, please. If we have to moan, let's moan in the right place!

I'm in today. Been bitten once before with African telecoms (Avanti), but this is very persuasive. The business is up and running and growing, which Avanti's was not really. 10% divi is nice too. A bit too large maybe....?

Topped up today. My very amateur short notes: "Down about 10% since buying. No financial news since final results 17th June. But they have brought out a number of new tests, which will run on their machines, including 2 for Covid-19, plus manufacturing for someone else's tests. They don't give out much news, but last year there was a trading statement 18th October. They come across as a very well run company, very public with what they have achieved AND what they have not achieved. I think a top up before 18th October."

Plus it seems to me that as they are established in this market, with the base machines already out there, and already selling other goods, they have a definite advantage over others coming in with new Covid tests. Not so much for mass market testing but in hospital. IMHO

"One fell swoop" - lovely phrase TopCatz, not heard it in ages. Yes, let's hope for one very fell swoop! :)

Starved of news here (and want some capital for other things). But the last 2 years at least there has been a trading update 1st October, so I suppose it's worth waiting for that. Not been very exciting recently - till today. Maybe the rise is due to the news soon.....

I bought in in June and was down by a third in no time.

Beginning to think 'WHY did I buy this?'...

Nice reminder this morning. I'm a total amateur but it seems to me the market for microsalt - let alone the others - is simply huge. Loads of governments are legislating on salt levels, that's a great push in the back.

Plus I don't know what it costs compared to ordinary salt, but if you use half as much that lessens the blow, and have a great marketing angle to boot, surely the deals will keep coming.

Relief!

Any thoughts on the timeline for a result on the litigation?

Thanks.

At stockopedia they generally push their combined stock ranks rating, which is a combination of quality, value, and momentum. However if you check back quality and momentum alone seem to give better long-term results. Since value is the weak link here that bodes well, though it is far from being a certain predictor.

Struggling with this one, really undecided. At this point I should really either sell or top up - again. It won't cost a lot to buy as many shares as I bought at the start!

Bought in at 72p following ST's recommendation in IC at 85p. He admitted it was the wrong call after things came to light and advised selling at 42p, which was clearly a better call and I should have followed it. He said that "The credibility of the senior management of Aim-traded Bilby (BILB:42p) ..... has been shredded....". That's the point. I've done well at times with disasters before, such as Carclo, saying "OK, I've messed up, but knowing what I know now if I write that off would I still have the faith in them to buy this now, this cheap?" I did top up small at 20p, last November. Now may well be the bottom, but unlike Carclo I can see no particular reason why this should come back with all guns blazing at this moment. Is this management really on the ball? They're not old. Simon Thomson pointed out that Ruffer and Northern Trust both bought at 100p from the chairman and his son so would be sitting on big losses. But Ruffer, whom in general I really respect, do seem to have the faith: they bought more with perfect timing right at the bottom in March. I think they'd have gone elsewhere if they didn't have confidence in the management: if you were buying then there was a lot of choice! That's actually quite persuasive as they surely get to meet them, as will have ST originally.

This may sound like a de-ramp, it's not, I'm just trying to work it out. So, please, you're welcome - tell me why to top up again!

ATB all.

The buying has continued this morning (including me), though not the massive sizes of yesterday, but that's a good sign after a great day yesterday. I noticed this from the daily Small Cap Value Report on Stockop**ia. Stocko shows it's not cheap, but that's not always a good thing: quality and momentum measures matter more, and they are great. He ends:

"This does look a very good company, which is already decently profitable. This extra major contract should see results rise considerably. I'm impressed.

Broker update - there's a helpful note from Liberum just out, providing additional colour on this contract win. Although I don't understand why Liberum has not raised its forecasts. Maybe this deal was already baked into its forecast, I don't know. It says the pipeline is strong, and expects further contract wins.

Looks like a company on a roll."

Also a nice quiet board here. I like that! It's also a good sign.

As Rivaldo has more sense than to get into an argument, I won't either. All I will say is that I am grateful to Rivaldo that he puts up what he thinks. It has frequently been very helpful to me.

I wish you well, and success with your investments.

QD

WhatdoIknow: you know something very useful.

Thanks for your time everyone. Yes, it's nice to be nearly 16% less cheap than we were this morning!

Agree with you all about the huge and good changes of the last year. I'm certainly going to hold - without a topslice - for a long while yet. My only concern is from the update 17th August: "The business was also successful in securing a number of new tooling orders in the medical diagnostics sector which are expected to deliver significant production volumes in future years." It's badly phrased but I take it that means they are retooling. Which also means they may have run into capacity constraints this year. And that 'succeeded in securing' implies to me that obtaining the machinery was difficult. I suppose everyone's trying to get in on the act.