Member Info for Qd22

VERY sophisicated! But that is the high barrier to entry you mentioned, which is good for us. The problem is the time it will still take to develop. ST says:

"Kromek has already developed a prototype to sample air and identify the presence of any biological pathogen – including Covid-19 or any mutant version that may emerge over time. The technology can be used to immediately flag the presence of someone with a contagious disease and allow effective mitigation of the risk of transmission."

Depending on how good this tech really is the end uses could be enormous. ST says, "Importantly, it’s incredibly accurate, giving a false alarm in just one in 800,000 tests."

I don't think they would claim as much as they seem to without real reasons: military minds have to be decisive and they will just lose the contract if they claim without substance. And they have been dealing with the US DoD certainly since ST first recommendation in Feb 2017 - customers you don't want to lose. At that point he said: "..... this is an exciting business segment to be operating in right now given the geopolitical backdrop. That's because the company's products provide high resolution information on material composition and structure and are used in multiple applications, ranging from the identification of cancerous tissues to hazardous materials such as explosives, and the analysis of radioactive materials. The business model provides a vertically-integrated technology offering to customers, from the growth of CZT crystals to finished products or detectors, including software, electronics and application-specific integrated circuits."

Could it be their time has come?

I'm embarrassed (and slightly nervous) to say I bought in here near the top yesterday, at around 1530 @ 13.8: so that's what it was then.

Embarrassed because it's at the top of an 18% rise on the day: not what you normally like to do. Definite case of FOMO. Setting up for a fall on Monday, but then if it goes on up you've missed the boat. That's my highly technical analysis! I do find ST worth following selectively, he's been banging the drum for KMK since early 2017 starting at 25p, and he's not given up it, which is unusual when a share of his is a loser. I nearly bought thanks to him before, and now it's well down, with an accounting bonus to come plus this possible head banger of a machine. Could blow the doors off. Risk/reward looks better than for quite a while.

Wow, Trek, you timed that nicely!

4D has 6 clinical trials going on.

On yesterdays's results of just one of them over 1/3 of the company value was written off, ie you could the total value of the Blautix trial, PLUS ONE OTHER?!

But Blautix is definitively not out of the game, not at all.

And how can you say it writes off the value of one of the other trials as well? Trades and charts are not my game, but this looks like good long term value now. I don't know the system at all, but I do wonder if over the next few days we start getting the RNSs saying that this and that institution has gone over 3%? It's played into their hands. They play the long game - like China.

Ha! I wish I was worthy of that mention, but I am NO EXPERT!!

I think it was Ronald Reagan who said something like "I pick good people, and let them do their job." He did OK.

On most boards of any share worth investing in there are people who know what they are talking about (and it's important to me that they are decent enough to stay out of the mud slinging). I could study my brains out for years and know nothing like what some people on these boards know: however hard I try. The important thing is to find them and then take seriously what they say. I don't follow slavishly, it's my money, my responsibility, and I draw in other sources and make my own choices. I won't make what they make, but still I've been pointed to some good shares. Sometimes people are really knowledgeable only on one share - or area - while others it is well worth looking to see what else they are investing in. It's a great help if they are willing to say when and why they sell! That's harder than the buying decision. Taking profits is sometimes the obvious thing to do, but I find coming out of a share completely a very difficult decision.

My own experience is merely a long forgotten science degree (biological), no relevant work experience, just a few years investing in individual shares, and many years in the markets with funds and trusts. Tbh I would probably do better just to invest in them, but I don't just invest to make money, it is great to know all of what I am in, and why. It's nice to dream of helping the world be a better place. :)

Atb.

Tbh anyone who managed to sell early yesterday was sensible - they now have the opportunity to buy more shares for the same money.

I can't judge short term movements at all. It could drop to 60, no idea, so what unless you sell?

But Blautix is defo still in the game, and I do believe this a good price for the long term. I don't have the skills to quantify that: like science, it's all probabilities - not facts. But the potential is vast both in IBS and elsewhere.

Hi again, Trek.

Ref my post at 17:17 I topped up at 109.5 - so it looks like I'm staying around. I'm not good at bouncing in and out, I just couldn't resist at that price, given that I couldn't see that the result anything like justified that fall [even if the trial had been a flop instead of the good result it was], so I suspected tomorrow would bring a bounce. We'll see. I probably first noticed this through your posts, and am even now up 150%. Ummm... I think that's a 'thank you'!! :)

Just to repost the link to the talk by Prof Spector (of the King's College London Covid survey), it's really useful:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRMEZnEURt0

QD

Reassuring Trek, thank you. Always read your stuff (and I've been known to follow you!).

These slides are well worth going through. Yuh, I've forgotten how to work the stats, but the bar and pie charts make it very, very clear. This is a great result!

To make it easy, here's the link again:
https://www.4dpharmaplc.com/application/files/7216/0201/7566/4D_pharma_-_Blautix_BHT-II-002_Ph2_IBS_Results_Oct_2020.pdf

Can't tell if we bottomed but the morning is a prime suspect for a bounceback.

Topped up. Pretty pleased to buy in at 109, though time will tell.

This RNS:
1. There IS a mild but significant effect. ON BOTH CATEGORIES.
2. Both categories might well indicate that it causes a general betterment in gut health. Given that it is clearly safe that points the way to some very encouraging directions.
(a) The trial was only 8 weeks long: general improvement in health takes time.
(b) Probably to isolate factors there was no provision to feed the bug the fibre/food it grows best on. Combining bug with diet may make a much larger difference, especially with a longer time period. Prof Spector, who is leading the [King's College London?] daily Covid survey 4 million of us have been contributing to, is very interesting on this - and relevant to us. What seems to be important is not so much the bug as the food/environment. ?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRMEZnEURt0
(c) There is no reason not to combine it with other bugs. Given it's complete safety sachets with dried fibre (like Fybogel) laced with a ****tail of good bugs could be sold, even OTC, and taken daily for life. Just routine gut health, like yoghurt. Enormous potential.
(d) As a GP, with it's complete safety, it could become the first line of attack the moment someone comes with possible IBS. Making a mild but steady improvement to general gut health, and being equally useful for all possible types of IBS, it will be safe and may well prevent mild problems from ever progressing to moderate or severe.

Ages since I did any stats, but the fact that the significance is only apparent when combining both groups probably shows that with these conditions the effect was mild, or takes time, and it is because of the extra numbers that the effect is clear only on the combined group. But it IS there, and WILL show more clearly with a larger group. And, as above, it can be improved. No wonder they are encouraged. The vital part is that it is totally safe, AND has no side effects.

I've not gone into this in detail yet but my first impression is that while this is not as good for IBS patients as we had hoped, it may sadly be even better for the company.

The drug will probably be cheap to produce, it is non-invasive in that the bugs stay in the gut, where they should exist in healthy patients anyway, it has no side effects, it helps possibly all types of IBS sufferer. If I was a GP once it's clearly safe and recommended I would prescribe it straight away when I first suspected IBS, along with dietary advice (to feed the bugs the right fibre), and probably continue it through all other treatments - subjects to contraindication. Even before definate diagnosis perhaps. It could become the first port of call long term precautionary medication. And as a long term medication combined with the right diet might be far more effective than in a short term trial.

Not just you... I’m just doing that lights and bushels thing. Seem to have mislaid my bushel at the moment... :)

Seriously though, thanks to all here for the well informed and well researched posts. I can’t have much to add to them, but I will be extremely grateful if things go the way we hope they will. When they do!

... yesterday at 1407 was mine, and a BUY.

Speaking of nervous, as someone with a compromised immune system I feel better to know it should be possible to get hold of what I believe to be the best treatment on the market by far. For me and my family.

Much bigger contract than other recent ones.

I have it on my phone, for most of a year now, and it really is very convenient. The kind of thing you will not step back from once you've had it.

Yes, I think that's what clobbered it on the 15th. Priced in now?

Excerpt from a grumpy letter to my MP, a minister:

"We are still not doing obvious and simple things
that some countries were doing from the moment it started in Wuhan.
Temperature checks at ports of entry (and elsewhere). There are cheap
machines that will cover a whole crowd or stream of people, sold by
British companies eg Westminster Group. You may say it is not reliable
it will miss some, but you will get 98%! Think about it. You can pull
people aside and offer (strongly!) a test."

Wish I could claim credit but that was sent early August, and the process must have been well in train. Plus it's for security. But who knows: maybe it works! At least now every time he goes through the system he may be reminded of temperature sensors. Especially for these issues that are around saving many lives I really recommend writing to your MP, at least you're doing something more than grumbling. They know that for every one that writes there are a thousand that don't.

If there is sufficient data for statistical significance, which there is, then there is sufficient data for peer review.

Also proven safe in COPD trials, as well as in these trials. These trials were specifically for safety - the statistical significance with the small numbers was a bonus due to the humdinger of a treatment that it is.

Agreed Bella. And this article may already have been flagged here, I'm not sure as there is so much personal, er, conversation. However I brought attention to it because;

1. It is fairly recent.
2. It is from an outside objective point of view, looking at the cons as well as the pros, and at the whole field - and we get a mention (though not by name).
3. It is in probably the most widely read scientific journal in the world, read by professionals worldwide. Peer review takes time, this is almost better. It doesn't particlularly highlight inhaled interferon (which I agree is far more promising than subcutaneous or IV) - or SNG - but our trial does get that positive mention. What's more the mention is in that vital last summary paragraph, in fact the last but one sentence. Combined with the MAP to me it is good news.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/an-immune-protein-could-prevent-severe-covid-19-if-it-is-given-at-the-right-time1/