RE: Why MAST’s shares will crash5 Nov 2025 11:22
2) So Hindlip revenue will be about £2.65m pa (but Pyebridge has not achieved anything like that rate so far) and profit before tax maybe £1 million.
Out of that will have to come repayments for the £4.5m loan, which at 10% pa over the usual 8 years will cost around £820,000 pa. The SPV can’t pay out more than is left, so Mast will get 25% of what is left – ie £45,000. Not exactly the sky high profit the rampers dream about and Krugel pretends.
And that will be all Mast can expect from all subsequent plants, although still having to spend around £100,00 per megawatt to ‘buy’ even 25% of their eventual profits if and when.
Its why as the chartered accountant Oak Bloke says, and anyone else who knows the subject, the rate of return on investment in these peaking plants of around 15% (as Mast itself and its consultant has reported) is just not enough when 10% has to be paid on any loan used to invest in them. Its why Mast ‘s business model is unviable, and why any business or financial expert would say Mast itself is uninvestable, and will eventually go bust.
That’s not to say the SPV’s will go bust. If they’ve been properly financed and not too dependent on borrowing which they are at the moment, they might survive. But Mast shareholders are invested in Mast and only partly and indirectly in the SPV’s which the figures show won’t be enough to pay its own debts.
For Pyebridge, the only fully owned plant but an SPV and still owing £1.9 million to Riverfort, latest results 2025 1st half with two generators working, showed £746,000 revenue (not profit)
At a 30% profit margin (70% of revenue is cost of gas) that is a £225,000 profit. Assuming the second half is the same., annual profit before tax will be £450,000. So how is Pyebridge going to repay Riverfort £1.9 million within the next year as it is obliged to?
The others, Bordersley will only add 4.5 MW and Stather Road only 2.5MW not before 2027 (no funding yet). Neither is any funding in sight for the five unbuilt and unconnected Kent sites bought recently.
If Bordersley can be completed with the £6 million shown below as the most cash Mast can be left with if all the warrants are taken up, its £600-700,000 net cash profit would be available for Mast, but not before 2027.
Conclusion. Mast will get practically nothing from its generators for 2026 and only enough if lucky to cover its overheads in 2027 provided Bordersley comes on stream. So before 2028 it will still make heavy losses, to add to to its current debts where even after the mere £2.6m raised from the pre-paid warrants, it is still insolvent.
At end June it had only £239,198 ready money against £2.9m of short term debts. Since then it has used £0.9m of the £2.6m to repay one of those debts (the rest went towards Bordersley and other losses to end year) leaving it still owing at least £1.8 million in the short term (plus the £1.9mmillion still owed by Pyebridge). And it continues