ACF Research's track record of paid-for exaggeration.20 Nov 2025 10:38
This was posted when ACF published its July 30 'research' ,describing its previous fraudulent research. So not up to date with its today version.
Eurasia Mining (EUA) - who paid ACF to produce 'research' - was closely connected with Mast, sharing directors including Mast's CEO Pieter Krugel. ACF firstly produced a wildly optimistic and never likely to be achieved 'scenario' for EUA, and then used a completely inappropriate 'method' to value it - consisting of totting up all the profits that it said (with no justification) would be made over the coming 13 years, and saying 'that (time discounted)' is EUA's value 'now'.
ACF published this questionable methodology in December 2021 with a EUA share 'target' of '115p-127p' compared with the then sub 5p share price. Just as with similar 'targets' for EUA a few years before, which had persuaded investors to chase the shares up from 4p in 2019 to between 30p and 40p in early 2021, that 'scenario' inevitably also proved to be bogus, seeing the shares crash to under 10p only a few months later, and to continue on down, never to recover. They’re now about 5p
Similarly ACF had published 'research' on Kibo Energy, paid for by the company. Pieter Krugel was its CFO at the time.
ACF 'initiated' research in Oct 2021 when shares were 22p. It stated a 'value range' of £1.51-£1.59. By Jan 2023 the shares were 12.5p when ACF updated with a 'value range' of £3.02-£3.18. By April 2023 Kibo's shares were 0.8p when again ACF 'updated' with a 'value range of £2.50-£2.63. By June 2024 Kibo was essentially bust and the shares 0.6p.
ACF has now published (July 30) a similarly paid-for forecast and extreme 'scenario' for Mast's hoped for ramp up of its generating plants - which Mast originally said would be 300MW within three years, now six years. Despite that target already being shown to be grotesquely unrealistic, ACF has assumed Mast will have achieved 150MW by end 2026 - and has omitted to allow anywhere for the £105m funding it says is needed. Having then assumed that 150MW will be operating after 2027 it has exaggerated its predicted revenues and profit per MW by 45% - well above what Mast has achieved so far in its sole operating plant, Pyebridge, and what is predicted by Mast's own consultants.
On top of that it used has used the method investors never do, by totting up those, in practice fantasy future profits over the next 13 years (by which time the plants will be more than half-way through their lives and the UK will have phased out gas) and saying that (time discounted) is Mast's value 'now'. Similar 'sums' for any other share in any other market, using the same method would produce a share price 3-4 times what is actually achieved even for a reliable long life company with stable revenues on a high PER, which as a non-growth limited life company Mast would never achieve.
Comment on ACF's latest will follow. It is equally grotesquely exaggerated.
Don't try and delete me ag