Member Info for PUTUP

"The PSC and the FDP are obviously interconnected in terms of what's required to get the best for both parties out of the bigger arrangement to produce profitable oil in volume.
Even if it's not directly referenced between the two agreements.
How do you not see that?
You know better, surely?"

One is agreed and committed to. The other isn't. GKP will push for the additional investment. They bare little of the cost. The KRG bears the bulk of the investment cost (over 80%). They have to forego substantial near term receipts in the hope of larger ones in the future. If they're cash strapped things get interesting. We shall see. Either way, 85k is several years away at best.

From Monday:

"Kurdistan's PM Barzani assured the international oil companies today that "we remain committed to the contracts that have been signed with my government. The contracts are in line with our oil and gas law and the Iraqi Constitution and they are a bedrock of our shared future."

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Kurdistan-Says-It-Can-Help-Ease-Europes-Oil-Shortage.html

Best Regards ValueS"

What contracts do you think they're referring to here?!

No, they're separate. Of course the KRG might WANT a new PSC but GKP doesn't have to agree. Only if threatened with a wholesale ripping up of agreed contractural obligations, something the KRG just recently said they wouldn't do, would GKP agree to something less favourable than they have now. Investing on the basis of getting a better PSC would be foolish. Russia/Ukraine is relevant only in so far as it has supported the oil price making investment more profitable. On the flip side the cost of the investment has gone up considerably (and we are now seeing plenty of demand destruction.) When you are in need of cash short term you are often less willing to invest even when the fruits of such investment are higher. We will have to see how things unfold. 85k is a long, long way away. Unfortunately 55k is a lot further away than we initially hoped also.

The dividend trail is independent of the FDP as well. They are paying out the cost recovery pool. That's gone from $548 million to $401 million in a year. I expect it to almost halve over the next 6 months.

"The capex burden is shared. Always was. Intended that way.
The issue is where the balance of burden should lie.
That's what the negotiations are all about."

They're negotiating a FDP not a new PSC. The latter dictates how the capex burden is borne - vis the CRP and % of production going to cost recovery. With expected costs going up massively it's no wonder the KRG are chewing on the FDP. Most of that capex eats into their receipts.

" So, where does that additional $12.9 m come from?"

Don't forget to back out CBC withheld

"I’m looking for the following basic information in either the RNS or accompanying Presentation.
Production figures for Jan and Feb 2022
Current production figure for March.
Clarification on correct use of 61.5% vs WI of 80% at different stages of the PSC.
Update on progress of resolving issues that have occurred with SH 12, 13 and 14.
Progress report on SH-15.
Progress report on finally fitting those two ESPs
New ETA for reaching 55k bopd.
Updated figure for the gross CRP
Updated figure for the R-factor
And finally, an update on any progress re FDP.”

"Add capex and opex guidance for 2022
And, of course, final dividend for the year ($100m+)
(61.5% vs 80% is already clear)
Not long thereafter we will get notified of the next and last VCP issuance”

YTD Production: Disappointing. Revised down expectations for Jan/Feb/Mar receipts.
61.5% vs 80%: clarified disclosure provided
SH 12/13/14/15: provided but not startling
ESPs: ?
55k: maintained production guidance 44k-50k for 2022
CRP: $401 million (in line with my expectations)
R Factor: 0.96 (in line with my expectations)
Capex guidance 2022: $85-95 million
Opex guidance 2022: $2.9-3.3/bbl. Substantially increased
Final dividend: $90m. Less than my expectations
FDP: very large increase in expected costs but otherwise no real update
Share count/VCP: only a fool wouldn’t use the fully diluted share count when assessing value

You don't understand the PSC and who bares the burden of the capex

*Share count is wrong

Sure count is wrong

Still think they're producing 50k?

Bit less than expected. Ho hum.

Obviously. The request was for cash as of now. It includes the cash that has arrived. Dec/Jan/Feb payments haven't arrived yet but you can easily do the pro forma when they do.

$228 + 36.8 - 50 - (capex+opex+G&A from 21 Jan until now)

It's not fully documented into a new PSC. Hence the disclosure in the accounts which says, in short, that even though a revised PSC has not been signed they've agreed to bill as per the new agreement. You will also note an accrual in the accounts for the difference between the new and old CBC that isn't being withheld. This will be reversed once everything is properly inked. So that's why there's no amended flow chart for an amended PSC. You have the old flow chart plus the additional disclosure. Either way, it's all very straightforward.

Add capex and opex guidance for 2022
And, of course, final dividend for the year ($100m+)
(61.5% vs 80% is already clear)
Not long thereafter we will get notified of the next and last VCP issuance

Hopefully we get enough to alleviate the boredom of listening to Opu bang his tambourine. Carry on lads.

1p, the "woohaha" was a clue that the post was in jest...

LOL

Hard to pump more oil than you can process. Food for thought.

Ah the ever so reliable dickeye. I bet that if I went through every single one of your 1200+ posts I wouldn't find an ounce of intelligent commentary. Nor would a scientific expedition inside your cavernous head find the matter able to produce any. Born stupid and haven't learnt a thing in your many years on the planet. Quite an achievement.

In other news, there's not much of interest going on with GKP. Here's waiting for an update on SH13/14/15.

Anyone know how long it takes and how much money it costs to build another processing plant? (I know dickeye won't have a clue...)

Maybe the Al-Thani family of Qatar which controls Precision Capital and InsingerGilissen Bankiers NV knew of the UAE announcement. Woohaha....

Yes you did. And you got the obvious answer(s). I could also have quipped something like "more sellers than buyers". Of course the peanut gallery that is 1pfish and dickeye was always going to pipe up. Don't worry, I do have a clear opinion as regards what's happening. Only time will tell if I'm correct.

But who cares what the price is today the it's going to be billions tomorrow? Or more constructively, if you're not looking to trade don't bother with what the share is trading at. Spend the time to better understand the company's fundamentals.