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That's not a model of the CRP but rather of the R Factor. Two different things. I do agree, however, that the R Factor has or is close to going above 1.

Well damofarl that's why it's so important to see if they can keep throwing them off. Note where the revenue is coming from (or, if you prefer, where the cash is coming from). Two components (for cash, three when we include arrears). The first, and by far the largest, is cost recovery. That's is a pool with very real limits. You've got to have a very good idea of what its level is each and every month. Model it out.

"Arrears will likely be fully recovered with the March production payment."

Oops.I meant the Feb payment. And the arrears for Feb will be capped at about $8.1m given my expectations for Dec and Jan. So:

Exp. Arrears Repayment 8.1
Exp. Total Receipt 44.7

They don't need it and will pay it out. And what's left will be worth commensurately less.

Expected receipts for February production:

Brent average for month 97.13
Discount 21.1
Days in month 28
Production bopd 46,800 (amend according to your expectations)

(1) GKP Cost Recovery 28.7
(2) GKP Profit Oil 9.9
(3) GKP CBC 2.0

GKP Net receipt 36.6 (1)+(2)-(3)

Profit oil as % of revenues: 25.7%

Exp. Arrears Repayment 9.9
Exp. Total Receipt 46.5

Arrears will likely be fully recovered with the March production payment.

The 'Big Market' slowly waking up to reality. I said some time ago the longer the conflict takes the worse it will be for markets. European equities have a lot further to fall; US equities another 10 per cent or so. GKP is a safer haven but not completely immune to changes in risk appetite. And, of course, the big question for GKP is how long does oil remain buoyant. 6 months? One year? Two? Five? The CRP is pouring 'into the bag' but what thereafter?

No but I might go back. Nothing to see here.

Your point is? Not unexpected. DEC-JAN-FEB are 'in the bag'. The CRP is being monetised to cash. Now what's your estimate of the balance remaining as of December 31 2021? End of February 2022?

Oh gee we got paid. Surprise surprise. Not.

If anybody previously thought truthsayer had any element of commonsense they've surely learnt their lesson now. Judge any subsequent posts - on any topic - accordingly.

****eye you really are a muppet

Rightly or wrongly I'm not so fussed about it yet. Both parties need the oil revenue. I could be totally wrong. That said, I'm not buying GKP yet. For me, the stock is within a wide band of do nothing boring - neither a buyer nor a seller.

The weight of Opu's purchasing power...

"Sounds incredible, 25 percent of mkt cap in 3months! "

The current FD market cap is $594 million.

I think that even most of those here are aware that the company has cash exceeding its indebtedness of $100m making the outstanding bond utterly useless in leveraging equity returns and instead dragging on them. Plenty of cash could be paid out right now even pro forma for the last dividend and without the Nov/Dec/Jan receipts.

Revised expectations for

November $29.8m plus $6.7m of arrears
December $27.0m plus $5.3m of arrears
January $34.9m (78.2% from cost recovery) plus $8.5m of arrears assuming average daily production of 46.8k for the whole month

"Slide 11, simple but effective graphic demonstrating strong cash position in Jan ‘22."

The cash figure as of January 21st had already been disclosed

Provides production volume for November and December - lower than my earlier assumptions of 46k. Confirms my earlier comment regarding no outstanding hedging. Otherwise not much new. Likely the Q&A would have been much more interesting. Carry on.

My sympathies go out to Barrik and his business, but most of all his employees and others on the ground in The Ukraine.

Keep going. You're making more of a fool of yourself every minute.

I had placed you in the same basket as Klassic. But right now you're earning your very own category, at an even more elevated level of stupidity. Sensational.

A play on words. I'm not surprised you didn't get my intentional misspelling. Duh.