Member Info for PUTUP

Thanks! I would be astonished if they didn't call the bonds in July. Given the 20 day notice period hopefully we see an RNS to this effect in early July. Will save them $8m (3p per share).

Do you have a link to the bond prospectus? I've not been able to find it.

Good spot BB. Thanks. Are they obliged to pay the remaining interest payments? A $2m penalty in July would be attractive if not (given a further $10m of interest due). If they don't then I wouldn't hesitate to exercise the redemption if I were the CFO and, as a shareholder, I'd expect it to happen.

The terms of the debt don't allow it. They'd have to go cap in hand and buy the debt back at a market price. Why would a debt holder sell at anything but a very high price or at all?

Not eligible. We have a standard listing only.

Retail (notably II/Hargreaveds) adds; institutional (notably Blackrock) trims...

Of course. And how much per share do you think that’s worth? There’s the value of the net cash and the future cash to be generated. A big chunk of the later is the CRP. That will be recovered in the next few months. That’s why I refer to it as ‘near cash’. Then there’s the profit oil stream (less corporate overhead, finance costs etc). What do you think those components are each worth? When they pay out the cash and near cash you’re left with the last one. Best have a good idea of what you think that’s worth.

Yes. And when they do pay it out the stock will be worth commensurately less. Kind of obvious. Ceteris paribus, less money in company = less value of company = lower share price. To date, what's left after paying out cash has been undervalued allowing the stock to continue to rally. That dynamic is changing now. But by all means get giddy. Please.

Feb's receipt was basically as expected. I had expected a net receipt of $35.5m ($27.8m of cost recovery, $9.6m of profit oil less $1.9m of CBC) but that didn't take account of the small impact of the R factor and the revisions to transport costs. In any event, the estimate was close enough.

March and April, and soon May, receipts are in the bag also.

No surprises on the dividend. More to come. They could comfortably pay a further $300m in addition to that announced.

Nice to see, after a couple of years, a price target finally reached. Stock is a Hold. Carry on.

"Putup, how do you value a company like Tesla based on your numbers game?"

Truthsayer, Tesla down about 24% in the short while since we had this exchange and I still wouldn't touch it with a barge pole. I reckon it's headed below $500 in the not so distant future and I wouldn't even bother to look at it until it's below $250. Irrational exuberance has been getting a real shake out this year. IMHO there's still more to come (unfortunately). GKP has been a great, rational, place to store money. Pass on the irrational and stick with the rational.

You really do have trouble reading don't you?

BTW Straycat I am using a fully diluted share count for reasons I have previously articulated. That means a bit over 4% dilution. So your £3 lower bound would adjust to £2.88 on a FD basis versus my £2.85. (Your upper bound would adjust to £3.12.) So we are rather close. Within +/- 10% of my target I'd consider the stock a Hold (possibly a little higher on the upside).

Ha!

I believe I said I adjusted my target to £2.85. It moves around a bit with the fx but I don't see reason to change it yet. These things are obviously not 'crystal perfect' so wrap a range around that. Of course that's cum the announced dividend not ex.
The announced final dividend is worth about 9p per share currently and so once the stock goes ex that you'd peel that amount of my target price.

Watch out Straycat else you will become one of my purported avatars... eek!

"Do you think JH's two tier final dividend strategy has influenced investors to stick around for the second tranche, or is there a better understanding of what this year's GKP proposition represents? Or both?"

I think people are waking up to the fact that this company has the potential (actually, the obligation) to repatriate a lot of cash this year. When the stock is inherently undervalued people can 'play the dividend game' with more confidence. That becomes a lot riskier as the stock becomes fully valued and indeed sending money out of the company means the stock ought to correct for that paying out of cash else become overvalued. We shall have to see what happens as/if we cross that point. Pro forma for the receipt up to including April production the company has net cash and CRP of roughly $385 million in my estimation. (That includes setting aside all bond interest payments.) They could pay almost all of that out. Of more importance is valuing what's left if they did, but people here find that work too hard...

" ( Jacinda Ardern exception )"

She can talk, but has no clue regarding economics

I see ****eye is expressing his true angry little self

Meanwhile, in GKP land, there's.... nothing going on. Oh well.

It's very easy to calculate the amount of capex/opex and direct Shaikan G&A that can be spent in a calendar month without accumulating a cost pool (given a production estimate and price of oil). Given direct Shaikan G&A is relatively constant/smooth and opex is linked to your production assumption, getting to the monthly capex component is also easy. It's worth doing the mathematics. You can then work out how much money GKP would get if this amount was not spent - it would be routed to profit oil of which GKP gets a (small) share. This is the 'burden' to GKP of the capex (the lost PO share). The balance is the burden of capex to the KRG. What percentage burden of the capex does each of GKP and the KRG/Iraq bear?

You only make money by making cash. Accounting is there to measure cash and to smooth certain cash events over time (depreciation smoothing capex being the classic example). At the end of the day, cash is all that matter because, as you note, without it you go bust. The $48m doesn't matter one tot. It doesn't affect the cash generation of the company.

They bought shares and cancelled them. Cash out for no consideration = a distribution. Issue shares for no consideration = a straight out dilution. The obligation to issue starts when the options are granted. Accounting endeavours to record some of this with a non-cash charge for employee stock options. Ignore the accounting non-cash P&L charge and just adjust the shares o/s for the expected issuance (for no cash consideration).

There are far more important things to focus on (and some to complain about). This isn't one of them.

Cash matters. Non-cash accounting matters much, much less so. So much less so I consider it irrelevant. The dilution happened the moment the options vested and, arguably, before then when they were granted or, at a minimum, as the share price appreciated and the vesting terms were going to be met.

At any rate, the VCP is gone. But nil cost options continue to be dealt out via the LTIP.

2.4 million nil cost options were granted under the LTIP on the 5th of April. While they haven't vested yet, many will do so over the next three years (most if you are bullish). I'd count then in the FD shares on issue figure as of now. I would not wait until they're exercised.

Only a fool would use the 216.248 million figure when considering value per share.

"Oh yes, and we're getting diluted unnecessarily as a consequence."

No you're not. It makes no difference if they buy back and cancel and then issue for the VCP or buyback and hold to satisfy the VCP. The potential (and eventual) dilution was created when the VCP was put in place. Don't sweat the buyback/cancel/issue aspect. Now of course if you were bullish you'd have liked them to buy back more shares, so increasing your ownership, but that's a separate issue.

And there's still a lot more shares to be issued as the LTIP vests.... IMHO it is foolish not to use the fully diluted share count when there are so many nil-cost options issued.

Not at all. It was merely poetic...

You are a bitter little fella aren't you? You've got at least a few splinters deep under the skin that keep bothering you. Take some deep breaths. Perhaps seek some assistance... Mental health conditions should be taken very seriously.

I'm not interested in advertising short term trading calls here. I merely updated my personal view on the stock. With a sizable drop in price the "hold" designation I had mentioned deserved to be updated. I couldn't give a toss what you think of it. Neither amused or unamused; simply, disinterested.

(I've no idea what alter egos you are talking about.)