Member Info for PUTUP

BB they have plenty of liquidity, in fact they still have too much. Cash as of end July looking like just over $90 million - adjusted for the bond repayment. There's no need for this company to be sitting on much cash at all. A revolving debt facility is all they need to manage liquidity. So expect more cash to be returned in short order. Another circa $95 million has been invoiced for May and June sales as well. That said, anyone expecting a takeover (especially at the ridiculous valuations touted) is smoking crack.

Agh, 1psquid...

Don't forget to subtract a couple of divis from that number.

Nah I don't. Frankly, it's non of your business. Just because I don't comment on others on LSE doesn't mean I don't own them.

Commenting on GKP here is just fantastic sport. Lots of commentators, few capable of any sensible analysis, many touting complete hogwash, many burnt before and likely to commit similar mistakes again. Anyone with commonsense is whipped for being a non-believer.

My view, rightly or wrongly, is that Iraq, of which Kurdistan is a part, needs good operators. Too many here think GKP 'owns' the field/resource. They don't. They're a contractor, implementing the owner of the field's strategy - the FDP - as advised by the contractor, and they work for a sliver of Profit Oil, currently about 17% and falling. The KRG/Iraq have merely outsourced execution. The challenge for GKP is let the dispute between the central government of Iraq and the KRG run its course in a manner such that whoever wins (if it is ever resolved) still wants GKP to be contracted to implement the development of the resource. The contract is already attractive for Iraq (more broadly) - it isn't, for example, like the disastrous contract signed by Guyana with ExxonMobil (which Guyana reluctantly adheres to). As the R Factor rises the cost of outsourcing to GKP falls to 9.2% of production. Quite reasonable. GKP needs to court both arguing parties.

While the dispute continues, if you think the stock is cheap then it's time to put up or shut up. I've been buying.

So how many of you whiners actually bought today?

See pg 5 here

https://wp-gulfkeystone-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/06/GKP-2022-AGM-presentation-vf.pdf

Yes, volumes were sh*te for April (something lost on many).

BB volume was 42.6k. Add in the impact of transport costs and R factor.

R Factor now circa 1.14 and GKP WI in profit oil about 27.9%

Y'all got to look at a dividend adjusted chart. Duh.

Receipt as expected. (Brent average for April was almost $13 less than March.) No news.

Don't worry, no clue Opu has promised monthly receipts of $65 million anytime soon...

At the end of each month it will be zero if recoverable costs are fully recovered in that month. Currently, I expect this to happen in December (previously expected in October). The faster we get to 50k the faster this will happen. I expect currently that production will rise steadily to 48.9k for the month of December. Even that yields an average for the year of 46.4k which is towards the upper end of management guidance.

But we agree the stock is cheap.

"Cash + near cash ~ 170 p per share"

More like £1.42 per FD share

I'm using $90 million GKP capex (ie Net) spread evenly, $4.5 million of GKP direct Shaikan G&A, opex per barrel of $3.1 gross, and $1 million per month GKP G&A (head office). Given the first three are recoverable only the last one really affects value.

What a load of boll*cks

My sales numbers are a little high due to R Factor reducing WI share and the recasting of transport as a percentage of sales. But then again they're based on these production and Brent figures:

(Brent average, days in month, average prod)

Jul 110 31 46,400
Aug 105 31 46,900
Sep 100 30 47,400
Oct 100 31 47,900
Nov 95 31 48,400
Dec 90 31 48,900

Cash as of 23 June 2022 $247.0
Cash receipt for Apr sales $39.2
Cash receipt for May/June sales $98.6
Dividend $(25.0)
Est. Pro forma cash end June $359.8

Announced dividends $(50.0)
Debt repayment $(107.0)
July - Dec receipts $253.2
July - Dec capex/opex $(69.1)
July - Dec G&A $(6.0)

Proj YE cash pro forma for '22 sales $380.9
CRP is zero

Hold that thought and do more squeezing.

A little more than $90 million BB. Plenty of headroom to buyback 10% of their market cap in one month alone.

Off another 3.2% today (plus taxes due on the divi). Ouch. Need you guys to be bolder.

I've revised down the forecasts for Brent in my model. All the way down to an average of $90 for December. Even so, GKP will still end the year with around $370-380 million in cash (post divis and bond retirement). I expect buybacks from now on.

Perhaps you'd care to put forward some alternate analysis rather than resorting to abuse? Or perhaps you haven't got it in ya? So far I've got this rather right...

The most potent thing propping up GKP's share price at the moment is the sh*tty pence Sterling...