Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4331919-oil-blood-in-streets-share-views
Rockhopper are still hopeful of an Ombrina Mare outcome this quarter. On UKEF, discussions are still ongoing, hope to see progress early this year.
I assume then that the proceeding had closed 30 October, and the 120 + 60 day timescale applies.
https://icsid.worldbank.org/en/Pages/process/Award-Convention-Arbitration.aspx
60 day extension was always a possibility. 120 days from 30 October was Thursday 27 February, another 60 days Monday 27 April. Perhaps the delay is a good thing and they are deliberating on the award amount, assuming a simple no would have come sooner?
27 February is 120 days on from 30 October, the last hearing.
https://icsid.worldbank.org/en/Pages/process/Award-Convention-Arbitration.aspx
https://icsid.worldbank.org/en/Pages/cases/casedetail.aspx?CaseNo=ARB/17/14
I wonder what news we will get first - Ombrina Mare or UKEF. Does anyone think we could get FID as soon as we get UKEF approval, whilst sanction would be some time off depending on FIG approval and the farm-in completion and Premier's debt refinancing?
https://www.investis-live.com/premier-oil/5e0f25730a12d411000bf578/aosf
Listen from 27:33 minutes onwards.
In the webcast, Tony Durrant stated he expected funding news from the UK export credit agency only after the new ministerial appointment. The cabinet reshuffle will be in February. The farm-in completion date is in Q2. FID is contingent on both and would be April at the earliest.
The all time low for Rockhopper was 9.76p on 27 October, 2008 according to tradingview. All time high was 549p on 24 September, 2010 when the number of shares was 192,539,606 and market capitalization was £1.057 billion.
http://www.premier-oil.com/sites/default/files/presentation/2019-hy-results-presentation.pdf
The break-even oil price for Sea Lion Phase 1 has decreased to $40 from $45.
https://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/operations/falkland-islands/north-falkland-basin/sea-lion/
Opex per barrel now $25 for Sea Lion as capex has increased to $1.8 billion.
My fear was the oil price would be too low, but that is not the case with Brent now over $60.
I think we will gets news soon, so I doubt the share price will be what it is now by next year, unless there are more delays.
I don't think news would necessarily come in Premier Oil's update on Thursday. Perhaps any material news would warrant its own RNS, so news could come at any time.
Good luck, everyone!
One scenario not mentioned is that a US v. Iran war breaks out, sending the oil price to $150. I don't think this is priced in. Also there is a good probability that we get a significant Ombrina Mare settlement, around the time of FID.