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https://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/2019/06/corporate-update-2-10/
Good news.
https://en.mercopress.com/2012/01/23/us-oil-company-makes-1.6bn-dollars-offer-for-falklands-rockhopper-shares-soar
Six companies were interested in Sea Lion: Anadarko, Noble Energy, Hess, Murphy Oil, Cairn Energy and Premier Oil. Anadarko made a $1.6 billion offer at the time.
EIA report just out. Finally a greater than expected drawdown in US oil inventories - 3.1 million barrels versus 1.1 million expected. The most important thing going forward is the oil price in my opinion. If there is a US-China trade deal and OPEC+ agree on output cuts extension, it could look a lot rosier soon.
Judging by the share price and low volumes traded, many people are wary of buying now at this oil price. I suppose many people have doubts over the FID risk and have sold recently.
I am optimistic about Ombrina Mare which we should hear about in three months. Premier have said they are looking for an equity partner after getting export credit funding approved. Anadarko and other companies were interested before, so that shouldn't be a problem once they get funding.
Let's just hope the oil price goes up. The funding depends on this. Getting an equity partner depends on the funding.
A lot is going to happen in the next six months.
Edison assumes Falkland oil would not be sold at a discount to Brent. I think Premier have a minimum oil price target of at least $55 on Brent for Sea Lion to go ahead. It will be crucial for the oil price to hold above for the rest of the year. Brent is in backwardation which suggests the market is tight and OPEC are producing at a record low due to losses from Iran. I am guessing the recent oil price slide looks overdone.
From what I gather, nothing was said that changes expectations on timescales. I'm sure any positive leaks on funding will mean a spike in the share price like this time last year. As long as the oil price stays firm, hope remains.
I hope someone gets a timescale for FID at the AGM's. Malcy asked Tony Durrant in that interview if we could expect FID by the turn of they year but the answer was vague. Discussions with lenders have been ongoing for a long time. Surely it shouldn't take that long to get a yes or no after the funding application has been submitted?
I think a lot of holders are frustrated with the slip in timescales for FID and have sold out. In the interview, Tony Durrant didn't actually come out with a definite time for FID. I think the share price could drift lower back to 20p if that is the where buyers are on the bid. If news leaks that lenders are going to support Sea Lion the price could spike again.
https://www.malcysblog.com/2019/05/oil-price-echo-predator-sound-premier-rockhopper-and-finally/
We also discussed Sea Lion where they and Rockhopper are putting in a serious shift ahead of final Project Information Memorandum which will hopefully be ready to send quarter. It is clear that Tony Durrant strongly believes that Sea Lion has the ability to make a significant difference and works very well at current economics, as clearly it will be a game changer for RKH.
He said he was encouraged by the support from lenders. The funding application is to be submitted within a month. He was asked if we could get FID by the turn of the year and he seemed to think so.
Big buys at the end. Seems the shorts are covering.