I expect the Ombrina Mare outcome will be a good one but there are still several hurdles in our path. I am disturbed by the current condition of inflation. The oil price is too high for a start, if you allow for the irony. All the other costs in the path to eventual success as a producer will go up. But anyway, we await the result at ICSID.
Hopefully good news by end May and marking up of share price. For what it's worth closing of the proceeding by mid-May and an award in October should bolster it whilst we await further development in Sea Lion.
It depends on both. I assume Navitas remain committed. It is up to Harbour Energy to make a decision on Sea Lion before it can complete.
"Navitas has confirmed that it remains committed to the proposed farm-in. In order to enable the merger to complete and the new management of the combined entity to make a firm decision on the Sea Lion project..."
https://www.harbourenergy.com/operations/mexico/
"The Block 7 partners and Pemex continue to progress Zama towards a targeted late 2021 final investment decision (FID)."
It will be interesting what the FID outcome is. Zama not going ahead could improve Sea Lion's chances.
Yes, you are quite right. We should hear about Navitas soon.
https://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/operations/falkland-islands-2/north-falkland-basin/sea-lion/
"Rockhopper, Premier and Navitas agreed to extend the exclusivity period for the farm-in to 30 September 2021."
https://www.harbourenergy.com/news-and-media/latest-news/2021/trading-operations-update-to-31-may-2021/
"A thorough review of the Group’s Sea Lion project in the Falkland Islands is currently underway ahead of a decision regarding the re-start of project activity."
https://www.harbourenergy.com/media/m4khgayf/210817-investor-presentation-august-2021-f.pdf
"Sea Lion project review underway ahead of a decision regarding the re-start of project activity"
The presentation from two days reiterates the same thing as the update. It doesn't say when they will come to a conclusion but it has been going on since at least May. I don't think we will necessarily hear in September.
Back in May 2018, RKH went over 40p. The oil price was in a similar range to what it is now. If FID seemed more likely, I assume we would see RKH achieve that level again. We just need some positive statements regarding Sea Lion from Harbour Energy and a sustained oil price.
Brent is only $3 or so off the previously stated $55 minimum for Sea Lion. The risk/reward looks a lot better now. I imagine that if the oil price surpassed $55 soon and news was released that the Ombrina Mare proceeding had come to a close with an award pending, the share price would be stronger.
On UKEF, I've found that the rumours in the news that come before the actuality are usually right.
https://www.ft.com/content/920aeefa-9779-485d-b478-9fce0bd40020