Member Info for ps200306

How about we just stick to PVR, period. No accusations of anything, no unrelated discussion of corona virus and who or what started it. No nothing. Just PVR.

Lest I appear to be griping, I agree with hereandnow that this is as good as could be hoped for PVR in the current climate. It's way better than I was expecting. But things that seem too good to be true have a habit of not being true.

LW >>> "You think the proposed farm-out is nothing more than an appraisal programme for Barryroe?"

No, that would be pointless. But we know nothing about the appraisal program, let alone the development farmout. APEC's grand plan was for five appraisal wells and two sidetracks. Will SpotOn be so ambitious? Afaik, the survey permit on the two sites that PVR failed to survey last October will have expired by the time any agreement is reached. Linn has applied for two others, including the new eastern edge of Barryroe. How many appraisal wells do they plan to drill? It sounds like the previous two sites are out of favour. So will it be two wells, or just one? That's a lot of eggs in one basket. Even with the great potential of Barryroe it's possible to come up empty with just one or two wells. But there's a lot of hurdles to jump before we even get there, chief among them being whether yet another brassplate operation with no staff or assets can raise any money.

Apologies. Posted twice and still got it wrong. It's 45k worth.

>>> "It is great to see the big boys participating."

Yep, a whopping twenty grand's worth between four directors and execs.

>>> "It is great to see the big boys participating."

Yep, a whopping twenty grand's worth between four directors and execs.

LW, if the Barryroe oil is extracted of course all bets are back on and a 75% dilution will be more than tolerable. However, look at what is actually in prospect. We are in exclusive discussions about a mere appraisal program until the start of November. Going on past form even such a simple thing as mobilising a survey vessel can take months if not years. Any quicker and the operation will take place in winter (though that might be acceptable in shallow water). Regardless, a survey will add no new information about the oil and gas resources.

So even if the dice fall favorably (agreement is concluded, someone stumps up money for survey) that leaves us around this time next year in pretty much the same boat -- no appraisal drilling done, no signed up partner with deep pockets for further development. Given we've been exactly here before, why should anyone think the share price will be at 9p? If you think I am unduly pessimistic, go back and look at where we were two years ago. Pretty much the same as now, with a "deal" in the offing and we even got a survey done ... albeit only half done and targeting the wrong locations it seems. If Providence wants to prove it is no longer the clusterfark it has been heretofore, they need to do a lot more than chat with some brassplate entity for six months.

Sounds like a desperate attempt to roll out some positive news while appealing for funds needed to keep the lights on. 33% dilution for £3m and, with the warrants -- IF things go as well as possible and the company is actually worth something in a year's time -- a 50% dilution for £27m. So not only have we hitched our wagon to another opportunistic fly-by-night, everyone's breakeven price will double too. That's BEFORE any farm-in agreement which would doubtless halve the value again at very best. All of that would be tolerable if this thing was real but it smacks of another Sequa/Sapinda/APEC. The counterparty doesn't have the required funds themselves so chances are they will lead PVR a merry dance until they ultimately fail to deliver.

LW >>> "When Corona is finally in retreat and oil prices get back to somewhere nearer where they were when the talks began, prospects of a deal might seem brighter."

Corona is not the only cause of low oil prices. The Saudi-Russian spat is also to blame. We had a mini-spike a couple of days ago merely on news that there might be a rapprochement between the two. Turns out that was just a rumour spread by none other than Donald Trump shooting his mouth off, as usual with scant regard for facts.

Oil won't recover while OPEC+ is at loggerheads, and even then the coming recession seems likely to keep oil in the doldrums for some considerable time. The oil majors have already taken a scalpel (or more like a sledgehammer) to development budgets. I believe it is delusional to think Barryroe has a chance of being farmed out this side of 2022.

I've been avoiding this board as it's too unsavory to visit, but FWIW this is from today's Business Post:

Big Oil turns its back on Ireland after government ban
_____________________________________________
ExxonMobil and Equinor have relinquished their exploration interests in this country, and the Chinese government is following suit.

Jez has left the building more times than Elvis. Unfortunately Elvis made 636 appearances during his Las Vegas residency.

I just picked up half a million ... for around 99% cheaper than the first half million I bought.

Oil back in the $20s, where I expect it will stay for some considerable time.

I think the PVR shares can be safely put in the bottom drawer which can be slammed shut for the foreseeable.

Ok, Manyana, all joking apart ... look after yourself. You're not in the highest risk age category, but none of us are spring chickens. Look after yourselves, folks.

Manyana, *related* to a chimpanzee? You fling so much 5h¡t around that I thought you *were* one.

>>> "How many American presidents trace their roots back to Ireland?"

It's a misleading turn of phrase which implies they are primarily Irish, or the most important component of their ancestry is Irish. Of course, you could pick literally any country on the planet and find they have roots there as well, as do we all. Given we each have two parents, you find that by going back just a thousand years or so we each have a trillion ancestors. That's many multiples of the number of humans that have ever lived, so you get an idea how inbred we all are.

It's true that we are more related to some people than others. DNA studies show the Irish population is more homogeneous than other European groups, with shared Irish haplotypes going back to the Bronze Age. That *doesn't* mean we're some purebred stock, it just means we're a bit less of an admixture. The scientists call such clustering a "gene flow barrier", and you can find many examples across the British Isles and connected areas -- in Devon and Cornwall, in Ulster and Western Scotland, in the East Midlands and Scandinavia.

Again, none of those shared ancestries mean there is no connection to other groups. It just means you have a bit more of one thing than another. Most people in the British Isles are more connected to Western European groups than elsewhere. And every one is also connected to everywhere else.

Some interesting reading:

* https://phys.org/news/2013-08-dna-earth.html

* https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-17124-4

Manyana, we could try to get you cremated in Barryroe gas. If you wake up on the other side in a pine box rather than flambéed you'll know you were wrong about the farmout deal.

Sir Nige >>> "surely a project s viability is judged not by reference to the price of oil/gas today but at the projected price once it is pumping....?"

You might naively think so, but no. A look at the history of oil prices since the 1970s would show you that nobody knows what oil prices are going to be, several years out. Twice we have seen oil prices over $100, only for them to drop back to the $20s. As I mentioned, oil investments fell 50% in 2015 and 2016 after the price drops that started in 2014. The investment horizon is extremely short term, which is why you get cyclical booms and busts in the business (though these have improved with the advent of onshore fracking as the time from development to production is much shorter than other oil plays). Oil companies' ability to raise capital (in a very capital-intensive industry) is based on the value of their reserves. Reserves go down in both value and quantity when the oil price is low.

The country is wracked by political uncertainty. Russia and Saudi Arabia have announced an all out oil price war, and the price is near twenty year lows. When the price dropped in 2014, global upstream oil and gas investment fell more than 50% in the following two years. A global disease pandemic threatens to shut down the world economy, and oil demand with it. Providence is still reeling from four years of trying -- and failing -- to farm out Barryroe. But Manyana thinks they have a deal in their back pocket which they'll wait to announce at the AGM, probably in contravention of stock market rules on disclosure of price sensitive information. All to save the hassle of holding an EGM. Dear god almighty ...

Looks like the Saudis are back to the tactics they tried to use in 2014. In the face of Russia defecting from a quota deal, they've promised to increase output and slash prices for buyers in Asis, Europe and the US in the hope of gaining market share. Maybe they think they can crush the US shale producers this time. Well, it backfired last time.

However, the immediate effect is carnage on the oil markets. I thought oil could hit the thirties this week ... it's down 30% and teetering on the brink of the $20s! Providence might as well close the data room and buy beans and shotgun cartridges for the next few months.