Member Info for ps200306

Kasjnaton: " https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIRhkDqRNRM&t=1216s It would be a brave man to either stand up and talk about a technology in front of well informed people if that technology were of no vlaue"

You must never have heard the term "snake oil salesman". Strange, since we had one as CEO of Sound Energy quite recently. For such a "proven" technology, the Q&A in that video is very weak. He was vague about evidence for its efficacy. He said it had been tried in one place and they got a dry hole followed by three successes followed by five more dry. The latter allegedly because people wouldn't listen to him. That's also strange for such a "proven" technology. The technology is not intended to be used on its own but in conjunction with other geophysical analyses. But where are the non-anecdotal specific numbers about the success rate? He alludes to previous work by "Russians". I presume that refers to the work in Western Siberia referenced in this similarly vague paper:
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/fe3d/0695fdeb677a3e1990f37bc8d4f64f4ad996.pdf?_ga=2.85006809.1711328102.1591267863-1020033408.1591267863

If you're selling "proprietary algorithms" for big money you're gonna need a hell of a lot more specifics.

So TO'R didn't fall on his sword like he said he would. PVR paid a pretty penny to be rid of him ... the best part of a million lids from April last year, leaving PVR with just 700k in the kitty by year end. I'm sure he will be focusing on his tan and not losing sleep over the $200m of shareholder money he spent on wild goose chases while failing to develop a single solitary asset in 15 years. Bad cess and good riddance!

Meanwhile the year end results clearly state it's last chance saloon for PVR. If SpotOn turn out to be another APEC it's curtains. All the eggs are in that basket now.

I'm also (very cautiously) optimistic for the long run, and have topped up 3.5m shares in the last number of months. But I think it could be a five year wait. Consider that it's heading for four years since TE-8 planning began.

LW, I have an absolutely strict "no reply" policy with Manyana, except where he puts out materially misleading comments. That will continue. However, I apologise for getting drawn into his ad hominem escalation.

BB, we already had one abortive attempt at a JV. SOU's retained percentage was disappointingly low, reflecting its perilous cash/debt situation. It seems to me you have two possibilities: a slow burn in which SOU raises money to properly exploit the existing asset over time (i.e. the LNG route), or a faster route to monetisation but with smaller ultimate value (the JV route). In both cases I am counting only proven assets, although Graham seems to think the ultimate aim is more exploration drilling. In that case, a JV could get us there quicker. However, that would be rank speculation. As of now, the plan is LNG plus future pipeline funding. I think the value will be there eventually ... but not anytime soon.

SoundasaPound1: "can someone with their head screwed on please just try cheer me up a fraction and give a few other invetestors a glimmer of hope here by attempting to predict the share price of this at the point where Sound start actually prodcuing gas from the LNG project which will possibly be up and running for end 2021."

Here's my pessimistic and optimistic range. Let's assume the LNG is 10 Mmcf/day and that SOU manages to retain its 47% and still has the bond debt to pay, plus costs associated with the LNG. Let's further optimistically assume that it gets something like the GSA price for the gas (which seems unlikely as 10% of the NG energy is used for liquefaction). SOU's income will be about $15m per year before costs. So I reckon it's still a couple of years away from being debt free and able to afford some drilling at that point. AIM investors seem to like to dive in for a quick killing and exit. But most SOU shareholders will still be LTHs nursing their paper losses. So I see the share price at under 5p.

That's the pessimistic view. The optimistic one is that the share price will be at a similar price to earnings of the average US energy company. Earnings per share will be approx. $0.015 so a P/E of 17 would give a share price of $0.25 or 20p.

If I was to hazard a guess I'd say the first estimate is more likely than the second. But then, I'm an eternal pessimist.

Apologies. I think you were probably collateral damage in my spat with Manyana on the same thread which got deleted. Sorry about that.

LOL. I'm quaking. You must be saving the best "inconsistencies" till last as your latest attempt was rather pathetic.

Anyway, I only respond to serious points. And to that end -- how do I know that the latest survey didn't point to a better location? Because imaging the seabed surface in one location doesn't point you to a better location that you haven't even looked at. That doesn't need complex analysis, just a bit of plain old common sense.

Manyana: "So you know more than the oil/gas experts in Providence who have spent a combined more years than even your geriatric body can possibly hold. Brain addled, I am afraid."

Those same experts chose a different set of survey sites last time. As for the rest of your potty-mouthed diatribe, you're back on ignore until your next inanity that needs correction.

Kasjnaton: "provide scientifically validated papers backing up their opinions that detection of hydrocarbons using hyperspectral imagery is not possible, then please provide that documentation, or at least a link to it so that I am able to read why it is not possible".

I don't know if you have any scientific background, but you ought to know that isn't how science operates. Scientists don't publish papers disproving the possibility of something. Have you checked the end of your garden for a crock o' gold? After all, there are no published papers that prove leprechauns don't exist.

Manyana, how about a bit more humility and a bit less frothing at the mouth when you're called out for talking through your back orifice? I said I would always intervene when you're talking misleading nonsense and this is such an occurrence.

Manyana, Friday 10am: "They have now until the end of October, 5 months, to complete a deal and carry out the survey. If the survey is a success I can see a deal but I don't know how dependent on the survey the actual deal is. For all our sakes, I hope the survey proves once and for all that Barryroe is not compartmentalised. "

Manyana, Friday 3pm: "Nobody said they were actually going to drill during the survey. They want to see if it can be drilled subsequently and the drilling is to confirm if it is compartmentalised."

Those two statements are mutually contradictory. If it is the DRILLING (and not the survey as you first suggested) which confirms if it is compartmentalised then clearly the SpotOn deal cannot be contingent on that, as PVR don't have anything like the money to do even appraisal drilling without a farminee.

You can back pedal all you want, but you stated: "If the survey is a success I can see a deal ". What sort of potential failure were you envisaging? Here's some light reading on seabed surveys for you: https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/back-basics-seabed-surveys-176850 . The survey is a routine part of preparation for drilling .

Manyana: "They have now until the end of October, 5 months, to complete a deal and carry out the survey. If the survey is a success I can see a deal but I don't know how dependent on the survey the actual deal is. For all our sakes, I hope the survey proves once and for all that Barryroe is not compartmentalised. "

You have your wires crossed. The survey is only a seabed survey. It reveals nothing at all about the subsurface. Only appraisal drilling can confirm reservoir continuity, and that's what they're planning. The SpotOn farmout isn't dependent on any survey.

Your way might have been preferable, ALGU, as new shares means more dilution for us PIs. However, unlike the initial subscription, I get the impression from the RNS that SpotOn won't get 3p and 9p warrants along with this second batch of shares.

My understanding was that the £200k *would* go into company coffers with an issue of new ordinary shares.

From the April 6th RNS: "The Company is also pleased to confirm that SpotOn Energy has confirmed that it has agreed to invest an initial £300,000 into the Company by subscribing directly with the Company for Subscription Securities pursuant to the Subscription and that it intends to make a further investment of £200,000 within six weeks of this announcement through a subscription for new Ordinary Shares at the prevailing market price."

What's up with LOGP this morning? It's done nearly three times the average daily volume and is up 20%. PVR hasn't budged.

Sounds like Sidi is totally on the back burner. Nothing happening operationally due to Covid and it's way down the priority list. Probable extension on the required seismic work from ONHYM. It's all about the LNG in Tendrara now. Two problems -- financing the LNG and financing the bond repayment next year. Graham sounds confident about both but it's clear both remain to be sorted. Possibly vendor financing for the LNG and some sort of deferral/restructuring on the bond. Good to hear the directors/execs are getting paid a lot less than the previous crew. Graham is a breath of fresh air compared to Parsons but he needs to deliver.

Maybe cheap cars will boost oil demand. Hertz went bust at the weekend. They have a fleet of 600,000 cars which will be sold off -- 70,000 gone at the weekend already. However, Hertz is a perfect example of a company that was drowning in debt long before Covid. There are thousands more like them. Covid is merely exposing the sickness of the economy, not the cause of it. If we get the sort of savage recession that some expect, oil won't be bouncing back anytime soon.

The arrival of the SpotOn money doesn't really tell us anything. I'd imagine that's their personal money, not the consortium. My read of the whole situation is that SpotOn are a couple of experienced individuals who have contacts in the industry and may have acted as middlemen in previous deals. There is no ongoing "consortium" -- just whatever SpotOn can cobble together from among their pals. That's obvious from the fact that no names have been revealed yet.

In other words we are not just dotting the i's and crossing the t's of a farmout arrangement with SpotOn, there is no agreement in place at all until the future consortium members sign up. I don't know if SpotOn provided any evidence to PVR that they have any of those members on the hook already, but the investment climate continues to suggest that will be a challenge. The oil price is well below where it was in 2015 when SpotOn claim they were previously interested. The only thing that has happened to Barryroe in the meantime is that T'OR, in his waning days, spent PVR's last few coppers doing half a seabed survey. So this guff about Barryroe now being "ready" doesn't ring true in the slightest.

I don't doubt SpotOn's earnestness. There's no conspiracy theory. But there's a lot of talking up of a farmout prospect that -- with the best will in the world -- is very risky biscuits.

Beer money is all that SpotOn *have*. A company with hundreds of millions of bucks does not have a two page website littered with bad grammar. They are middle men that may or may not eventually line up a consortium that *does* have money. If they do they will make a packet themselves, which is why they're in it of course. They've already doubled their initial investment. The screw-up with the money may or may not be significant but it's one hell of a bad look. Given the PVR history and the importance of making at least this initial piece run smoothly for the sake of optics if nothing else, it says to me we are dealing with amateurs. The excuse they came up with stinks as well -- if it's their own money and it's sitting in a bank account there is literally nothing about the Covid lockdown that would prevent the money being moved. If not -- why on earth are we dealing with a company that can't scrape 300k together???

Battle: "I wonder what new gas field they are talking about "

Despite Manyana's rose-tinted specs I suspect it could be Iniskea, operated by Europa. They've been looking to farm it out for the last couple of years. It's nearly a thousand square kilometres of triassic sandstone, with a mid case estimate of 1.5 Tcf. And unlike Spanish Point it almost touches the Corrib field, being within 11 km at its closest point.