Member Info for ps200306

Manyana, USC was one of the reasons I retired 20 years early, a few years back. Sick of working to pay the government. A couple of corrections on the debt -- Ireland doesn't owe huge amounts to the EU, only about 10% of national debt are owed to each of the EFSF and ESFM. The majority of GFC-era loans have been rolled over onto cheaper normal bond market sales. We even made a profit on our bilateral loan from the UK due to the collapse in the price of Sterling. And the government doesn't spend $6bn on oil and gas imports, consumers do. The government nets a huge slice of tax on it. So they don't care that we have among the highest energy prices in Europe.

How hilariously ironic if Ryan's first responsibility in his new job is to get sued by an environmental group. Just wait till he's forced to approve Barryroe. But you can bet the environmentalists will be all over that like a rash. PVR will struggle to surive strangulation by red tape.

All gone quiet again? I guess yesterday's rampers have exited stage left. Except Jones. But he's on drugs.

Not nearly as loaded as I was, ktf ;-)
Still, 2.5m of those are at an average of 2p. Had a much higher average previously.

Up to you what you "simply don't believe", ktf. I've posted screenshots of my exact holdings on here TWICE.

The air has gone out of this rally. Traders are leaving with their swag. Pity ... I thought I might see my losses reduced to under half a mil', but didn't quite make it.

Truthful, I think the horst could be worth 20p eventually, if SOU doesn't get too diluted and manages to retain not too much less than half of its current 47%. Obviously many a hurdle to be overcome before all that, and no price higher than zero is guaranteed. But that's without any exploration upside. I'm hoping the new management continues with a sensible, conservative approach. No more "three wells or bust".

I prefer to look forward instead of back. I got sucked in by the hype like a lot of others, but ever since reality so rudely intruded I have had a cold hard focus on the assets we already have. That's why I considered it worth while to average down aggressively. Some people are talking about more exploration, and if you need to get back to £1 to break even that is probably your only hope -- not completely impossible but it will be a long road.

I'm thinking of the assets in ground today. Like the other poster, I calculate the gross revenue from LNG to be $23m to $32m per year (assuming 1.02 mmbtu / mcf). But that's just the beginning. It puts us in a good position to attract finance for the pipeline project. The 90-100m m^3/yr in today's RNS is 8.7 to 9.7 mmcf/day. TE-5 can produce at 60 mmcf/day. At similar gas prices that is $156m to $200m / yr for maybe 15 years. That is a serious company worth multiples of today's SP if we never drilled another exploration well.

_That's_ why I bought an additional 3.5m shares over the past months, not because I was licking old wounds.

Kasjnaton: "We have had some wild cat drills, they all failed. Every single one of them. Badile = fail,TE8 = fail, TE9 = Fail, TE10= fail".

However, they didn't fail because of lack of hydrocarbons. Therefore, something which can show the presence of hydrocarbons by surface analysis is absolutely no guarantee of drill success. Whereas known commercial hydrocarbons at TE-5 are a guaranteed source of revenue, albeit slower than some would like. So when you say Scotforth's technology was "100% accurate with identifying the outcomes of 3 drills for Sound, Badile, TE-9 and TE-10", are you claiming that it not only detects hydrocarbons but can measure reservoir porosity and permeability and is a 100% guarantee of commerciality? That would be a pretty neat trick. It's also a tad unbelievable.

TE-8: "Gas shows were encountered over this interval and subsequent petrophysical analysis suggests that these sandstones may be permeable and likely to be producible with mechanical stimulation... TE-8 also penetrated 114 metres of TAGI I reservoir (approximately twice the thickness of the TAGI I reservoir encountered in wells on the TE-5 horst) with gas shows. The TAGI sands encountered by TE-8 are also confirmed to be at the same reservoir pressure as the previous wells on the TE-5 horst (TE-5, TE-6 and TE-7). Sedimentologically, the TAGI at the specific TE-8 location was however found to be much finer grained than any of the previous wells and cemented with carbonate, anhydrite and halite".

Te-9: "Drill gas readings in both the TAGI and Paleozoic intervals showed a range of C1 to C5 hydrocarbons, which the Company believes is further evidence of a working petroleum system. All data from the well are subject to ongoing analysis, which also includes other rock and drill gas samples recovered during operations, that will provide further valuable data to derisk the prospectivity of the wider permit area".

TE-10: "the TE-10 exploration well was drilled to a measured depth ("MD") of 2,218 mMD, with gas shows greater than background levels observed across the gross TAGI interval, from 1,908 mMD to approximately 2,030m MD. Both internal and external petrophysical interpretations of wireline log data, integrated with FMI (high definition formation micro-imager log), and side wall core analyses, estimated net pay of up to 15.4m in a succession of thinly bedded gas bearing intervals distributed throughout the 110m gross TAGI reservoir interval. The presence of moveable hydrocarbons was further supported by the successful recovery of a gas sample from 1,937 mMD, with no evidence of water, using a modular formation dynamics tester (MDT)".

Someone would appear to be unloading some shares on the Irish stock exchange. If you were in a position to engage in some exchange arbitrage, you could sell PVR shares in London for about 30% more than they going on EuroNext Dublin at one stage this afternoon.

Yes. If:
a) SOU raises the finance it needs for the LNG project, otherwise there is no "next two years",
b) There is no massive dilution via a raise,
c) SOU manages to retain its entire 47% interest in Tendrara,
d) SOU convinces someone to pay for their gas in advance, otherwise it's nearly two years to first revenue,
e) SOU keeps (some of) the revenue instead of using it all to pay down debt,
f) SOU pays for new exploration drilling and gets it done in double quick time,
g) The well is a multi-Tcf find.

I'd put the odds of all that happening at maybe 100,000 to 1. Otherwise ... nah.

The Greens do not care about social causes enough to want to spend oil revenue on them. They would rather see the economy crash and burn than slaughter one of their sacred cows. I say this from first hand experience of a meeting of the Irish Green Party where they were addressed by a "peak oiler" of the ilk common in the early 2000s. Even though this person was of the opinion that the oil peak would decimate the world's wealth (and even world population), the Greens were only enthused that we would all to use bikes instead of pollution-causing modes of transport.

In any case it will be many years before a Barryroe operator contributes any meaningful revenue to the government purse, after field development and after the operator recovers all their previous exploration costs. Governments are notorious short-term thinkers, and anything beyond the next election is of little interest. The best we can hope for is an easy ride on permitting because of legal constraints on the government. Enthusiasm for the project is way to much to expect.

Can't believe we're going to have that useless dimwit Ryan in government again. The Greens' policies are basically "tax every electron and hydrocarbon molecule that moves". Our electricity prices are already among the highest in Europe. At least the other lefties are kept busy griping about statues of Christopher Columbus in Galway.

It's ten weeks since the RNS about SpotOn -- must be about time to hear something further about the consortium. I still think the odds of a successful farmout are worse than evens. At least in October we will finally be out of our misery once and for all, as it is surely the last throw of the dice for Barryroe and Providence.

Manyana, you are such an uncouth donkey you hardly deserve a reply. However, just to note that huge debts and bankruptcies do NOT mean that US fracking will grind to a halt. It just means someone else will buy the assets and start again, debt free. Exactly the same happened in 2014 when prices crashed. You're welcome.

"And American fracking companies are going to the wall which makes the bullding of the LNG plant in Clare obsolete because it was American fracked gas that was to be stored there. "

There are between 10 and 20 thousand companies fracking gas in the States. Twelve bankruptcies is not even a drop in the ocean. The top ten frackers produce a third of the gas. They are not going to the wall any time soon. And the US itself is only the fourth biggest LNG exporter. Almost the entirety of UK LNG imports are supplied from Qatar. To say Irish plans for LNG imports are obsolete is a touch crazy.

Correct. Back of an envelope -- 350 mmboe × ($60 / bbl - $26 /bbl costs) × 20% ÷ 1 bn shares ˜ $2. Ridiculously optimistic. Realistically, probably divide by five (though I have no idea really).

20% would do more than handsomely. It's all about turning those 2C into 1P reserves though. $2 target if so, otherwise it's a bust. A binary bet, as ranger4 says.

Sir Nige, there's another way of looking at this. Ireland's lower corporation tax receipts is one of the contributing factors in its underfunding of healthcare. 45% of Irish people have private health insurance, compared to only 10% in the UK where the NHS is better funded (note: "better", not "well").

Multinationals employ 22% of the Irish workforce, but they indirectly support many more jobs. There has also been a transfer of expertise into indigenous companies, particularly in the tech sector. It is a virtuous cycle. Ireland has many ills, but attracting FDI with a low tax regime and a young educated population has been one of its roaring successes over the past four decades (at least until we decided we could all get rich by selling houses to each other).

Competition rules are one thing. But should the EU dictate the balance between health funding and private insurance costs? Irish people are used to high wages and high costs. They also suffer the slings and arrows of the global economy by having such an open economy themselves. Why should those trade offs not be allowed to be decided in Ireland? The French couldn't implement such a regime because there'd be a mutiny when various state social supports were defunded. That's their choice. This is ours.

Kasjnaton, I have a masters degree in astrophysics so I can vaguely understand the RSDD-H concept in principle if not in detail . Even if I was able to understand the detail it would require access to those unpublished proprietary algorithms. However -- the layman's version will do just fine: hydrocarbon seepage alters soil and vegetation colours in a way that can be detected.

K: "So, if RSDD-H was 100% accurate as was claimed and if both the timeframe and content of information given to Sound by GRH was as per the post on the PRD board, and copied by me to here, is true, then surely questions must be asked of why this information was ignored by the previous BoD."

But hang on. Even Peter Hutchison does not claim a 100% success rate for RSDD-H in that video. He says it can used in conjunction with other analyses to improve drilling COS and to increase the value of contingent resources. GRH does not claim 100% on that PRD thread. The after-the-fact 100% for Tendrara is anecdotal.

I'm afraid Scotforth are in the position of someone selling magic beans. The a priori likelihood of the beans actually being magic is negligible. But give us a free magic bean and lets see if it grows a giant beanstalk. What ... it did? Well maybe it was the soil that was magic and not the bean. Let's have another free bean. We'd need a lot of giant beanstalks before we were convinced your beans were magic, and even then it might just be that we have a lot of magic soil acreage. Why would we pay big money for your allegedly magic beans when we already own the magic soil?

On the other hand, after a few beanstalk failures we realise our soil isn't all it was cracked up to be. Now your magic beans might actually come in handy. But your price would have to be realistic and I reckon you'd have to have some skin in the game by chipping in for any failed beanstalks.

I think you can see the problem for any potential purchaser of RSDD-H.

I can't see anything happening the SP until all financing is sorted and the LNG equipment is on the way. I feel the whole enterprise is well dodgy until then, and I'm STUCK here! Can't see anyone taking a punt on this who doesn't have to. Even after first LNG it's a long road to any appreciable value. I still say five years, and I'll consider myself lucky if I come out whole at the end of it.