Member Info for ps200306

... or the exclusivity period could just be extended.

... or the exclusivity period could just be extended.

Yes, manyana, we have a caretaker government... and those are notoriously reluctant to make any decisions that they might perceive as to their detriment. Such as authorising an unpopular oil drill. As for selling up, some of us are so far down that there is no point. You don't think it's because we actually have confidence in this dog?!

Fortunately even Bríd's command-in-chief, Rich Boy Barrett, doesn't think the electoral arithmetic is there to support a left-alliance, so Bríd is unlikely to be calling the shots on forming a coalition.

Ditto. I can certainly see how Barryroe is still legally POSSIBLE, but as for PROBABLE ... there isn't even a minister to sign off on approvals for the next who knows how long. Will anyone farm into a major project in the midst of political uncertainty? The Irish Offshore Operators Association has already been talking about Ireland not being as attractive as it once was. Business friendliness is a major concern for oil companies. They have large fixed assets in place for years and prone to confiscation or changes of terms. That's certainly not unprecedented in certain parts of the world, amongst the socialist bedfellows of Sinn Fein. I'm not suggesting it's likely in Ireland even under a Sinn Fein government ... but you only need to be slightly less attractive than all the other farm-in opportunities around the planet to be passed over for attention.

I reckon *I* can make a fairly educated guess as to the financial health of the company -- it's dire! ;-)

trellis, in my experience a finance director or a CFO is not the deal maker in a company. So no, I'm not unduly worried. Nor am I exercised about the composition of the remainder of the staff. Those are not details I'd expect to see in an RNS. I could invent a million things to worry about, but to what end? The next short while will bring clarification anyway.

I don't really care about the folks who have left. I'm more interested in what those remaining are doing about a deal.

The most workable arithmetic is an FF - SF - Green coalition, god help us. Meehole Martin is power-hungry enough to go for it too. Next most likely option is a rerun with Sinn Fein improving significantly. None of the options are good for PVR. I'd say we're verging on Donald Ducked. Nobody's going to want to farm into this uncertainty.

Last weeks high volumes continuing after a lull on Friday. 14m traded by 2.30pm.

Battle, that pattern of large Sinn Fein surpluses transferring to candidates of the left is being repeated in multiple constituencies. The Sinn Fein share of first preferences is even higher than the opinion polls suggested -- they are on 24% compared to FF 22% and FG 20%.

There are five possibilities to consider from here. I think two can be ruled out quickly. I don't think the arithmetic is there to support a Sinn Fein - Left alliance. I also rule out a continued confidence-and-supply arrangement as that was never more than a holding pattern for FF and they will now have more TDs than FG. The latter are not going to just switch places and become the supplier.

That leaves three plausible options. First, a Grand Coalition of FF, FG and possibly independents who share their DNA. This is the most rightwing option, though Sinn Fein will complain bitterly that the most popular party should have the first go at forming a government. But if the other two have the numbers to shut them out, that's tough. Second is a FF - SF coalition. Micheal Martin has already done a 180 degree turn in mentioning it as a possibility today, and I believe him as the man doesn't have a principled bone in his body. He's the guy who was there when the last FF government crashed the economy, who turned FF from the pro-life party into abortion'r'us, and who will always sniff out which direction the winds of political fortune are blowing.

But Sinn Fein are riding the crest of the wave. They will not go into coalition without getting large parts of their manifesto through. And there are elements of both FF and SF deeply opposed to such a coalition. Both parties would probably need Ard Fheiseanna to approve it. My third option -- and possibly the smart option for Sinn Fein -- might be to make sure nobody can form a government, blame someone else for blocking the popular choice, and go back to the polls. This time they would field more candidates and have a shot at forming a government on their own or as a majority coalition partner.

If I was a betting person, I'd rank my options 3,2,1 in order of likelihood. Personally I'd prefer option 1 as the least worst option. But I say that through gritted teeth as I despise all of them, from all parties.

JezTheSwizz >>> "There is only one PI that is actively going after answers and it's Trellis. The very man who you and others mocked, PS200306".

Jez, you perenially lying toe rag, I've never mocked trellis. I wish him all the best. But I thought you said YOU were trying to get to the bottom of the Sound saga. And I guess "the bottom" is an apt expression as you have done nothing but pull pure self-serving speculation out of you a$$. Hopefully you will be too busy stacking shelves to make the normal nuisance of yourself for the rest of this week.

JezTheSwizz >>> "They are my predictions and that's all that they are, so don't go worrying your pretty, little self."

Yebbut, two days ago you predicted that you were leaving this board. If you can't even predict your own behaviour 24 hours in advance, why would anyone give a flying carp about your predictions for a deal you patently don't understand? Constant tedious repetition doesn't increase your credibility, only your unpopularity.

Manyana, a few lapses of memory there -- the Anglo-Irish agreement of 1985 did not "settle all that violence" as it continued for many years afterward. Also, 1985 was not 24 years ago, but 35 years ago. Perhaps you are thinking of the Belfast Agreement of 1998 (22 years ago) which _did_ bring about power sharing and relative peace in NI. Anyway, the main question of why Sinn Fein is suddenly popular in the Republic is, I think, down to their socialism rather than their republicanism. People are looking for solutions to problems that beset many developed countries at present -- there is full employment but a lot of low paid jobs, stagnating living standards, and above all a dearth of affordable housing. Sinn Fein has promised a smorgasbord of handouts, all to be paid for by taxing "the rich" with tax rates up to 57%.

It's quite obvious where the support has sprung from. The median age at which people owned their first home was 28 just a few years ago, now it is 35. Although SF support from younger people has soared, the biggest increase comes not from the 18-35 age group, but 35-49 where support went from 13% to 30%. These are the people with biological clocks ticking, and staring into the abyss of unaffordable housing and unaffordable families. They are also old enough to remember the bad old days when Sinn Fein and paramilitarism went hand in hand (not that they don't still have ugly connections). But they don't care. It's a wake up call for the bigger parties that if they continue to screw this young cohort there will be a political revolution. The only thing saving them this time is that Sinn Fein were as surprised as anyone else by the level of support, and failed to field enough candidates to capitalise on it.

trellis, couple of corrections -- I've never been anti-SAG, let alone going from "anti" to "pro" to "anti". I had a concern about the vendetta aspect, which is why I am no longer signed up. I still wish you the best of luck, and I absolutely would like any corporate malfeasance to be dragged kicking and screaming into the light of day. I just think it's unlikely that there has been any. Or, at least, my level of concern is low enough that I have continued to invest heavily in Sound.

I absolutely never asked for my details to be deleted. You told us you were doing that for anyone who signed off, and I think your attention to confidentiality is commendable, but I never asked for it. As far as I'm concerned you can post any communication I've had with you here in flashing lights. I already posted a screenshot of my trading account here, as well as sending it to you unsolicited, and happy to do it again anytime. I have literally no agenda other than to see SOU do ok which, of course, is totally outside my control.

As for the "despicable false hope" thing ... just because you are representing the wishes of SAG members does not mean that they have a reasonable chance of success. But I take your point about not being party to SAG's dealings, and admit to a position of ignorance. I wish you well.

trellis >>> "the Board and NOMAD refuse to answer- surely they could shoot me down if my questions had no foundation? even sue me for libel if they had a case? ; if there was no substance to my questions the FCA and the AIM regulatory bodies could either have continued merely to acknowledge my e mails and not sent detailed replies, or even asked me not to continue wasting their time;"

Of course, there are two very simple alternate explanations for your experience. First, the board would be insane to answer accusations of the sort you have levelled without involving lawyers. The more you ramp up your efforts the less likely they are to engage as any response would have to be gone over with a fine tooth comb at their expense. Second, the regulators presumably have to be seen to be engaging as they have no way of knowing if there is any substance to the accusations. Neither of the above mean there actually IS any substance. You haven't made any actual case for problems in governance, except to suggest (incorrectly imho) that there is a conflict of interest between being owed money by a company and being chairman of the board.

That just leaves the question of hype from Parsons. Did he intentionally mislead? Well, you have "industry expert" Malcy claiming to have first hand experience that he did not. Your chances of making that case must surely be negligible. As I've said before, I'm neutral on your SAG efforts because although I think some people have a vendetta I don't think they will manage to damage the interests of the company. For you part, though, I hope you aren't giving false hope to people who already feel they were duped once.

LW, yes he has those cash bid multipliers wrong.

He may be just pulling the 50p number out of his a$$. I thought he himself valued the current deal at something like 19p previously. Nevertheless, I absolutely believe there is room for improvement. Without any further discoveries, the certified TE-5 horst high case is about 40% higher than the mid case, at 533 Bcf recoverable. We can't know until there are depletion rates measured for multiple wells. Sound have a production concession for 25 years until 2043, plenty of time for things to go right. And that's just the 133 sq. km horst area. The JV may still go prospecting in Greater Tendrara, or further farm it down.

This is going to be a slow burn. Everyone's getting excited about possible news next week (actually Monday week at earliest, I would think). Then what? Well, the people who bought 40 million shares in the last two days are probably in it for a quick buck. It's a long road to first gas and the share price will drift, as it always does. I've said before, I don't think the share price will take off until first gas is a foregone conclusion, some estimate of the royalties is properly firmed up, and we have a timeline for further exploration.

There may be incremental improvement from there, but it could be several years. It's not obvious where the share price might settle or whether you'll need to hang around for the royalties. I'm interested in this as -- even though I don't mind hanging around for the long haul -- I have a large capital loss but royalties would be taxable regardless.

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And you've got 55 and 55 and they've kept 23% and they've given the guys an option to buy another 9% if they want to. And the gas is selling at $8.35 an mcf which is about as good as you'll get anywhere else -- we talked about it in Singapore, but you know. So the Sound position there, I don't think people have worked it out, I just don't think they've looked at the sums. They wanted a cash payment, they wanted to take everything in cash. Sound had 26 companies in the data room -- it's ENORMOUS -- and they said this is the best potential deal. You've got 112 million cash, you remain with 23% of the business, and you're going to get a royalty ad infinitum. Shareholders just don't understand what the royalty means and how it should be valued. End of.

The point is, the buyer is putting in 112 million for less than half the value here. When you look at it when first gas comes and what that's going to do and they've got 8.35 an mcf, I don't see why you wouldn't get 50p worth of money out of Sound, but again it's over the longer period. It's a royalty which some will, eh, they can't work it out because they don't know when the first gas is going to come. But they do know ... as soon as the first tranche of cash comes into Sound -- because it's only going to be, like, a non-operated entity -- it will be paid out to the punters. And there'll probably be three tranches, so you're going to get three payments coming through from Sound, and you're going to remain in a position -- I mean, you must know what I'm talking about, about a royalty -- you'll end up with your three payments in cash, and then you'll be invested in a Moroccan gas business that all it does is throw off cash. You'll know how much it is, it's something you can work out on a calculator. People will be buying these shares back from other people in order to have exposure to a royalty like this.

Andrew55 >>> Great overview of the potential here, 31mins in! https://total-market-solutions.com/2019/11/22/malcy-talks-oil-gas-xvi/

Here's a transcript for those too jaded to listen. It's what me and others on here have been saying ad nauseam. There's a couple of ropy bits in Malcy's comments. I think the 3.5p mentioned is the share price at the time of the interview, not the projected royalty. And I don't know where he gets the 50p total, which would be way more than what I'm hoping for. Apart from that, here goes ...

Two things I'd like to point out about Sound, and the first thing -- and I went to all those presentations that were made and everything else and at no point did James Parsons say anything other than "we're going out to high risk plays; we intend to try and find big, big fields in Morocco for gas and if we do, it's **** or bust, but if we do we'll make ourselves loads of money and if we don't, well, that's the way it is". Now, they did have a big discovery at the TE-5 well which made it a profitable, you know, workable gas field. And then they had a duster at TE-10 which then, effectively, didn't double the size of the prospect.

So what you've got now is a modest gas discovery here, so the market has seen what James Parsons and the team have done, and the bottom line is they just don't understand. If he had told them -- you see what they wanted was a bid for Sound at 20 or 30 or 40p or something, which would value them at, maybe, back up to maybe a hundred million quid or a bit more.

But, when you look at it, what have they done here? They've got a deal which gives them 55 million in cash and 55 million in carry, roughly. So you've got cash payments coming in, in tranches. And obviously, tranche one won't be until the deal is signed, tranche two a bit after that and, probably a third tranche when they get to first gas. A 55 million carry, so Sound is carried all the way to first gas and when first gas comes on it becomes like a royalty payment. Sound will be non-operating so they won't have any staff, which is why half the people are already leaving. It'll be a royalty where Sound shareholders will forever and day. or whatever, be able to tell how much they're going to get from that, at 3.5p. And they've kept 23.5% of the find in their back sky-rocket!

cont'd in next ...

Jez, you toerag, said you were leaving. Do you not have a single shred of dignity or integrity?