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I think Lenz meant that the £195 isn't a reflection of how things will pan out at Havieron. I would bet (which I have I suppose by buying the shares) that the AISC will be lower and I also think that the price of gold will be back above $1,800 pretty soon, and by a lot. The market seems to value us at the moment as if there'll be no more gold than there is in the MRE, that it'll be expensive to dig up, and that it won't be worth much when it is dug up.
I think all of that is wrong and I think the market must realise it too, eventually. The PFS will help because it'll include an estimated AISC.
:)
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I've just written that, Redirons: about £195/oz.
That assumes an AISC of $925/oz and a gold price of $1,800.
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Well, I mangled that post.
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The current SP values our 4.2m oz Au eq at about £195 per oz.
195 × 4,200,000 the divide by the number of shares fully diluted is about £0.195.
We just have to wait.
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Do we think the gold will bring us more than £195?
Do we think there'll be more than 4.2m oz Au eq?
I keep thinking of that Regis / Tropicana deal. The same in-ground resource value applied here to our bit of Havieron gives us £0.044 per m oz. You can do the maths. I think that as the MRE grows and we head for production there will be plenty of growth in the SP.
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Brabantio was a bit of a rubbish character.
My favourite is the lingerie collector in Hamlet: Fortinbras.
I'll get my coat.
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Presumably he's planning to under promise and over deliver.
I would regard more than a year a disappointing.
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The camp at Goliath is much reduced.
Thanks for the Black Hills info!
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Black Hills is an easy one to spot: there's a squeeze in the dune lines that is the NE corner of the tenement and Black Hills is a pair of linked black shapes running more or less NS.
I am fairly sure there's nothing there yet.
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Anyone else know the coordinates for the supposed Black Hills activity?
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Hello Bottle,
What are the coordinates for the activity at Black Hills? I have been checking for weeks there but I've spotted nothing.
The camp up at Goliath does seem to be shrinking so I expect activity at Black Hills soon.
Thanks!
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They still mix up Newcrest and Newmont. If they can't get the basics right everything else they write is worthless.
O, sorry - 18p onto 25p. Which would make it 43p.
Still conservative!
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If the gold price goes that high, Hydrogen, using Canaccord's figures that would add 14p to their reckoned SP target: 39p.
It still seems conservative. I suppose we must just wait and see.
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My opinion (inexpert and unasked for) is that Havieron's timetable is very well known and that nothing spectacular will happen until we get near September, which is when Sandeep said the PFS would be ready. I doubt we will get an updated MRE until the PFS: Why would we?
The only thing that might alleviate the routine of July and August is something interesting at Juri or the disposal of something like the Tasmanian assets.
There's lots to happen yet. We just have to wait. I have looked at alternatives, such as Wishbone, which is hawked here often, but the alternatives don't have what Havieron has, and we have more than just Havieron.
Just wait. That's it.
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Thanks, Caseyjones. It is in the sensitivity analysis.
They also assume a gold price of just under $1,800 and say every $100 move equals a 2p change in SP.
I think they've been very conservative while simultaneously highlighting the potential of their valuation to increase radically.
Interesting times!
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Does anybody know?
The Canaccord report seems very conservative (and out of date) now: their base scenario is 11m oz at Havieron with a throughput of 500k oz Au pa, which they say generates an NPV of 24p per share (hence their rounding to 5p remark).
They also say that $100 movement in the Au price means 2p difference to SP.
On p27 of the report they say that a 5% change in discount rate implies a change in valuation of 10p. Are there any accountants who can explain what that means? The discount rate isn't obvious in the report - not to me anyway.
It'll be an interesting day today - 85m at 11g/t!
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You can also Google "Telfer Mine" and click on the maps tab to see a higher resolution satellite image. It's out of date by over a year, though, like the one for Havieron.
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Please don't feed the trolls. Their sole aim is to drown out anything useful, in this case ahead of the results.
Just filter and ignore them and the board stays a calm and useful place.
Results and a new (hopefully cloud-free) satellite picture tomorrow.
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