Member Info for Profitaker

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-09/top-quality-crude-offered-near-100-a-barrel-on-new-ship-rules?srnd=markets-vp

"......or a takeover by AB at terps"

I bloody hope not !

It doesn't fair much better Plethorus.

The future market is in backwardation to the tune of about $5 as far out as the Dec20 options (Dec futures closed at $61.94). The Dec20 $62 put closed at $5.41 so buying that would put a floor in of (62.00 - 5.41) $56.59. It's hardly worth it.

I've long held the view that it'll be publication of the H2/19 results (expected 24/3/20) that'll be the catalyst for this company to march towards £1bn cap (SP 60p) fairly quickly. Kraken fixed, ability to pay-down debt proven and Brent in the low $70's or higher. The ingredients are coming together nicely.

With good volume so far.

The TERP is/was 35.36p.

Indeed 121

Even if you strip out the intangibles and deferred tax asset it's a TNAV of 24p. Ridiculous SP

Status:
Underway Using Engine
Speed/Course:
14.1kn / 232°

Distance 44 nm, speed 9.6 kts, time 4h 35m, ETA 1235, which is 35 minutes late. No ?

"So that is where K/AK is as of March 26th. Needs several loads at 40Kbopd in April/May to get average above 30K bopd."

But we've got the rest of the year (9 months to get there). A consistent offload at just under 16 days would get us to 30K Bopd by year end (ex scheduled maintenance shutdown). Or to get there by 30th June (half year accounts) an offload at just under 15 days. We would never need a load of more than 32K Bopd to get 30k Bopd year average. It just needs to be consistently in the 15-17 day ball-park.

colebrooke

That Moody's projection is a little out of date. The Net Debt/EDBITDA is already 2.5x and ENQ are targeting 2x by end of this year. I'm sure we'll get a new upgrade from Moody's in a couple of months.

Some research...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4251777-enquest-14-percent-yield-back-strong-cash-flow-deleveraging-process?dr=1

A P/E of 6-8 would be more reasonable and achievable I would suggest.

The TERP was about 35p as I recall. Won't be paying any attention until it's through that marker.

hi Hitman

I don't understand why you cite accruals and trade creditors rather than looking at the overall liquidity ? As you can see the ratio is less than the ideal number of 1 (currently 0.69) but that in and of itself doesn't indicate a problem.

That's the way I read it too Beerbull.

Specifically I think they talk about efficiency in terms of uptime. He also said that the specialist FPSO team would remain in place until production efficiency improves from the low 60s to the mid-80s.

So, they are on the case !

Hitman

".. but we know 2019 realized prices will be 10% higher this year"

How do we know that ?

Assuming 2019 EBITDA of $716m (same as 2018) and given their commitment / expectation to get down to 2x Net Debt/EBITDA this year, would mean net debt standing at $1432m at the end of this year. That's a reduction of $342m which is fantastic.

They must have used a Brent assumption in that forecast but I can't find it. I can only find the assumed Brent price in the base case / going concern scenario.

Anyone know ?