The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Dipped the toe in with 402k shares
The lithium price LiCO3 as at 11 October was $22,950 per Tonne. Benchmark's latest global weighted average price is $27,177 per Tonne. Where are you getting $10,000 for 200 Tonnes????
Indeed it does Deck
My top ups still not showing up
Just done two top ups - 50k and 55k, both at 5.25p. Had to break it down as could not do all in one go
My reading from the below passage from the RNS is that there will be another RNS soon about the quantum and the notice to the Indian govt will include that quantum - it will be public knowledge.
I think there is a good reason why PAT has not already RNSd that quantum.
"while at this stage the Company is not able to make any comments in relation to the potential quantum of damages that IGPL will claim from India, the Company will in due course, announce the actual quantum of damages that IGPL will claim from India when available".
No worries at all Dan
In fact, I am waiting for the West African portfolio to show positive results as they all seem promising assets.
Indeed these are my views only and are NOT put forward with a view to influencing anyone. People should do their own research.
hi mickey
in considering whether to go for the 1. market value based approach or 2. income based approach which i have copied below, my preference would be the latter.
in the teyhan against ****stan government , the compensation of some $5.8 billion was based on the income approach discounting the anticipated future cash flows to present value - the estimated resourse was known based on drill results. same with pat, 6.7 million ounces made public of which 1.7m jorc compliant.
my take is that the claim amount will be in the region of $2 billion i.e. "quantify the amount of compensation required by the “full reparation” principle, on the basis that this principle requires a tribunal to determine the financial position a foreign investor would be in if the investment treaty had not been breached".
the market should then reflect a probability of say 10 % of the claim amount.
my thinking is that the indian govt will come out with an offer of settlement as i believe they will be told in the notice of the likely amount of damages to be pressed against them in an international tribunal. i don't think they will risk going to the tribunal. so how much would mb consider as acceptable amount of settlement. on the basis that we have been robbed of a tier 1 mine with a potential of 10 million ounces or even more, my guess would be not less than 500m.
gla
others, however, appear to accept the figures proposed by the investor’s experts at face value, subject only to minor ad hoc adjustments.76 either way, tribunals rely heavily on evidence led by the parties when calculating compensation using the dcf method. the expert witnesses who provide this evidence, therefore, play a central role.
73 lieblich, w.c. (1990). determinations by international tribunals of the economic value of expropriated enterprises. j. int’l arb., 7, 47.
74 marboe, supra note 40, 234–239.
75 ripinsky & williams, supra note 18, 197.
76 in tethyan copper v. ****stan, the tribunal went a step further and argued that there was no need to consider the implications of
uncertainty about predicted future cash flows, as these risks had been fully accounted for in the cash flow predictions themselves on
which the valuation was based. no other investment treaty tribunal has endorsed this so-called “modern” dcf approach. the use of this
approach raises issues that go beyond the scope of this paper. tethyan copper company, supra note 48.
IISD.org 18
Compensation Under Investment Treaties
3.2 Income-Based Valuation
Income-based valuation techniques use the expected future income of an investment as a basis for determining its current value. Income-based valuation techniques are forward looking, in the sense that the value of the investment is determined on the basis of assumptions about the future, not on the basis of the amount spent by the investor in creating or acquiring the investment. Over the past decade, investment treaty tribunals have increasingly used income-based valuation techniques to quantify the amount of compensation required by the “full reparation” principle, on the basis that this principle requires a tribunal to determine the financial position a foreign investor would be in
if the investment treaty had not been breached. Tribunals have also seen income-based techniques as appropriate for quantifying the amount of compensation required under the fair market value principle, arguing that the amount a commercial buyer would pay for an investment depends largely on expectations about the stream of future profits that the investment would be capable of generating.73 International tribunals were traditionally very cautious in using income-based valuation techniques to calculate compensation. However, these techniques are now widely used in investment treaty arbitrations, especially in cases where the investment was already in operation prior to the breach of
the investment treaty.74 By far the most common method for valuing an investment on the basis of
expectations about future income is the DCF method. The DCF method requires a set of forecasts of the net cash flow—i.e., expected revenue minus expected costs—for every year into the future that the investment would have continued to exist if the treaty had not been breached. (It is more precise to say “net cash flow” than “profits” because past expenditures do not enter into the calculation.) The predicted cash flow for each year is then discounted using a “discount rate” to arrive at a present value. The discount rate is based on allowances for the time value of money and for the various risks associated with the business.75 The time value of money is the concept that an expected return on investment of USD 1 in 10 years’ time is worth less than USD 1 now, based on the potential earning capacity of the USD 1 now. The total present value of an investment is the sum of the present values of the risk-adjusted predicted cash flows for each year of operation in the future. Beyond these basic parameters, there is disagreement among tribunals about how to account for the
range of risks facing an investment when using the DCF method. Some tribunals review multiple
DCF calculations provided by the parties, to try to understand the sensitivity of the implied valuation of an investment to plausible variations in predicted future cash flows and in the discount rate. ........
Accordingly, with the unconditional funding facility from LCM Funding SG Pty Ltd ("LCM Funding" or the "Funder") to support the claim under the Treaty secured, we are pleased to announce that the Company's Australian subsidiary, Indo Gold Pty Ltd ("IGPL") is now preparing to deliver a notice of dispute to the Government of India. This notice is anticipated to be delivered to the Government of India in the fourth quarter of 2023.
The claim is going to be BIG and it will be a wake up call when that notice hits the govt of India.
I am guessing but would not be surprised for a possible tie up with a European manufacturer to unfold
Sir Kritash
People do have important matters to attend to.
Seriously, I was actually going to post about the dream I had that you were drafted in here by the govt of Rajasthan. It's obvious you have so much dislike for PAT - wait when the BIG claim RNS lands!!
Thanks to a poster on another site:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.eenewseurope.com/en/eu-to-form-e20bn-critical-materials-club/&ved=2ahUKEwiJk8XS6ZaCAxWVhv0HHTJJD9AQFnoECCgQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3Hiknxwom-v4FfIkylnjA6
Recovery here is going to be swift on any good news release
Hi ejt7777
Purely a guess
A) trip to west Africa and
B) interview
MB arrived in London yesterday, then he is out to another destination and will be back in London on the 24th