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i will keep on accumulating whenever opportunity arises because of a clear end game now. and, if the ****stan govt case is the basis to be used then i am not far out from the present value calculation of $1.5 billion that i worked out on the basis of future cash flows from the project.
here is the thing
when we are eventually awarded and if say the award is indeed around $1.5 billion, the govt of rajasthan will have a roughly similar present value over the life of say 25 years of the project but they will be paying us that upfront after borrowing that kind of a sum- what will they gain - nothing
gla
hi ejt7777
i am not sure how long it will take - i will have to read up on the ****stan case which i mentioned before to establish the timeline.
BIT CLAIM gives us value quicker and PAT van develop other projects.
$1.5 Billion claim as a present value I expect Fascans to lodge on behalf of PAT. At that point, I expect market to reflect at least 20% of that claim value in the share price, I.e.£2/ share
NOW WE WILL HAVE A SECOND RNS SHOWING THE QUANTUM OF THE CLAIM WE ARE GOING TO MAKE - WAIT FOR IT. MB IS NOT GONNA SIT BACK
as mentioned earlier, the option for bit was always a better one. based on the recent award against the ****stan government in the sum of some $5.9 billion which was based on the discounted cash flows from the project, pat's case will be the same. the international tribunal now focus on the future cash flows forgone as a result of the expropriation of the assets.
Buying opportunity
IS COMING
Building stake??????
That's bloody amazing. Bido and Kalaka too offer huge potential with numerous targets identified.
The way I see it , 3 points to make:
(1) I think that the govt at all cost would want to avoid going to arbitration
(2) the govt is too greedy to give us a majority 51% holding. And, MB I don't believe will accept this proposition.
(3) That leaves us with the option of out of court settlement. I suppose this could come at any time, it just depends on what's on offer.
My own preference is that MB gives them prior notice of a claim amount of $1.5 Billion before it is lodged ( As I said before, this may already have happened). This is appropriate as based on discounted cash flows which the international courts apply. ( see earlier post to the case where discounting was applied).
I don't believe the courts in our case will apply 20% ruling if it went to tribunal as we already have a Jorc of 1.7 m ounces and a further Jorc equivalent of 5m ounces.
Based on the above, we should not accept anything less then 50% of the discounted cash flows. I.e. approx £ 775m based on rough calculations.
Could the govt agree to pay us a sum which MB cannot refuse as a out of court settlement. If say we have told them in the polite notice that the BIT claim will be in the sum of £1.5 billion but they offer us £775 million? Would that be acceptable sum? i.e. £5/share
Any thoughts?
MB came back on the BIT time frame - it roughly takes cases about three years - this is from the icsid data.
Lets see how the court case pans out on Wednesday. As I said before in my last post "Knowing MB has a very diplomatic approach, the Indian authorities are served I believe one last opportunity to agree on something".
This COULD POSSIBLY happen on Wednesday. It certainly will be a very interesting day - hoping that the judgement will run into several pages instead of the usual one liner
Knowing MB has a very diplomatic approach, the Indian authorities are served I believe one last opportunity to agree on something.
There have been a huge number of cases brought against the Indian government in the recent past, not just by local companies but international ones. And, these latter ones are a worry for the Indian Govt I am sure. Will PAT join that list remains to be seen - it will certainly prove or disprove how much protectionism has taken hold.
Agreed Shearclass
I cannot believe how they can do other foreign investment deals when you have this kind of asset grab. I mean the good reputation is most definitely diminishing
Should we buy out GGP with some of the funds?
By the way, I have written to Mark on the timescale but have not yet heard from him
Hi Mickey
If they have to say pay us under the BIT approx $ 1.5 billion, this is roughly the same amount which you get if you present value the future cash flows for the mine life of 20 to 25 years. Remember, they have to fund this amount to pay us.
On the flip side, the value we get up from of $1.5 Billion, if you put that in the money market at the base rate of say 5% for 20 to 25 years, it will amount to future cash flows equivalent to what the Indian government will get in terms of cash flows from the project.
I certainly prefer the reward upfront
The Indian market is huge with obesity and diabetes one of the highest in the world.
Time to keep loading here.
G LA
What's rrr got to do with moti group? Can you please explain
Mega companies companies ca have extremely low grades like Evolution.
If the company thinks that it has potential to have a mega mine in Cameroon even as low grades as Evolution then I don't care how they raise the money under the current circumstances ORR is in.