Member Info for Professor1

I did a dummy sale of my entire large holding on HL and they want all my shares, i wonder who?

GLA

This is starting to move up. Now watch those who sold come back and buy in at higher price

@Gallmat

This is precisely what was required. Trying to increase my holding as and when I can

GLA

@lordsloadoflolly

I am not asking you or OTM to read my posts so feel free to filter

@gemstar

We are way beyond the commercially viable cut- off grades of 0.2g/ t

"Cut off grade of 0.2 g/t Au and 2 m internal dilution applied to intercepts"

Such low are the cut- off grades and we have what are considered to be significant grades in relation to cut - off grades

This is going to be a one hell of a massive gold bearing system and some are selling without understanding the RNS.

GLA Holders

Great RNS. They know its going to be huge. Will keep topping now.

GLA

@roger65

I have not completed the full npv analysis yet (its too late for me now due to our Siberian kitten having an operation)

[NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE]

With the very nature of IMM, one cannot rely on the 'Earnings' based on the accounts ( which as we all know are non-existent) but rather potential future 'Revenues' from the already filed patent for the P140 Diagnostic and Treatment Platform to carry out the valuation. This is to be derived from the data that IMM has released via RNSs pertaining to science and potential market opportunity to disrupt.

SCIENCE

IMM, via the RNS, advised of the new patent filed for P140 relating to the Diagnostic and Treatment approach giving a 20 year commercial exclusitivity to the potential partner. The new diagnostic model data with P140, as verified by an independent laboratory in the US, is viewed by the management as a 'Game Changer'. According to the management, the identification of the 'Type M' immune disorder de-risks any clinical trials for a successful outcome. Assume for the purposes of the valuation the results as verified by the independent laboratory are achieved in the final phase trials thus putting us in a position to disrupt the $100 billion (annually) immunosuppressor market.

MARKET DATA

The IMM management have advised us that the total autoimmune disease market is worth around $100 billion annually. It also mentioned that the Diagnostic market of $10 billion annually. The diagnostic side is completely new and a game changer so a full $10 billion market assumed to be exploited fully. The management have advised us that the current treatment afforded in the market has side effects,so assuming on a very conservative side we disrupt only 10% of this $100 B market i.e. $10 billion annually.

COMMERCIAL PERIOD = 20 years

TAXES / INFLATION = Ignored for this purpose

DISCOUNT RATE USED = 25% - VERY HIGH TO BE ON SAFE SIDE

VALUATION

This is derived at by simply taking the projected future cash flow revenues and discounting these. Usually, I know that the NPV calculation in a project involves using the weighted average cost of capital (i.e. cost of equity + cost of debt after tax) to discount the future cash flow revenues but I understand this may not be correct as higher discount rate would apply to pharma companies depending the stage they are at in their development. To be on a very safe conservative side I have used a discount rate of 25%. (the higher this rate, the lower the NPV). So, assuming total cashflows of $20 B annually (i.e. $10B for the diagnostic and $10B (out of $100B) for the therapeutic), the following present values are derived from total cash flows each year.

YEAR CASH FLOW. PRESENT VLAUE

0. 0. 0

1. 40,000,000,000.

(TO BE CONTINUED)

@Stout

I can attempt a highly simplistic valuation FOR FUN ONLY ( not to be used for investment decisions) based on all the stuff and assumptions I can think of as its a minefield requiring specialists whose job it is to do this as per my previous post, (but some of the learned people here I am sure might be able to do a better job than me). And,

@ halfbutt

Your figure could possibly be in the range but we shall see what I come up with

GLA

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22-minute read

Biotech Valuation Idiosyncrasies and Best Practices

Biotech Valuation Idiosyncrasies and Best Practices

Biotech companies with little to no revenue can still be worth billions. Consider the most prominent 2017 biotech M&A deal when Gilead bought Kite Pharma for almost $12 billion. At the time of the deal, Kite had over $600 million in accumulated deficit, but it also had a pipeline of CAR-T cell therapies, which treat cancer. This article examines how to value such pipelines. It also focuses on the risk-adjusted NPV valuation methodology, portfolios of multiple drug candidates, and how value is impacted by the characteristics of the investor or acquirer.

Last updated: Sep 5, 2023

authors are vetted experts in their fields and write on topics in which they have demonstrated experience. All of our content is peer reviewed and validated by Toptal experts in the same field."

GLA

I think Corporate Finance teaches us why the off balance sheet value of a ground breaking medical platform would run into millions or billions of pounds. You throw away the creative accounting in the bin and look at the 'real' value.

GLA

I only invested after seeing the video interview on the Black Shisht project. I am down 91% and not very happy with the management.

NO STOPPING THIS TRAIN NOW

GLA

@Dickie

Agree. They know this asset is going to be massive. Hold for gold.

GLA

@roger65

I BELIEVE AVION IS AT ITS WEAKEST POINT TODAY AND SHOULD BE AFRAID, VERY AFRAID WITH WHAT IMM HAS GOT.

P140 is indeed an extremely valuable asset and that is what formed the basis for a Joint Development Agreement with Avion.

What we now have, and what will be on offer to the big pharma companies, is a NEW DIAGNOSTIC MODEL, that is viewed by the management, and, as verified by an independent third party laboratory in the US, as a GAME CHANGER. This white knight has given IMM an enormous bargaining power to IMM when negotiating partnership deals with big pharma companies.

IT MAKES SENSE ( and everyone was wondering ) why the recently filed patent for P140 related to the DIAGNOSTIC ( in the heading) AND TREATMENT approach giving a long period of commercialisation to the winning bidder. As we all know, this diagnostic model identifies a specific sub- type of patients ( TYPE- M) which allows patient stratification AND DE- RISKS CLINICAL TRIALS FOR SUCCESSFUL OUTCOME,i.e. smaller, faster and cost effective clinical trials.

- THE 2019 AVION AGREEMENT LACKS THE DIAGNOSTIC MODEL ,( CALL IT A TWIN ENGINE JET IN THE 1940s).

IT IS FOR THIS REASON THERE HAS TO BE A NEW AGREEMENT WITH AVION, ON THE SAME TERMS OFFERED TO OTHER BIG PHARMA COMPANIES.

THIS NEW AGREEMENT HAS TO RUN IN PARALLEL TO THE OLD 2019 AGREEMENT

I do not believe that Avion will be able to meet the terms put in front of the big pharmas in Europe and the rest of the world.

Therefore, we will see an Agreement in Europe first.

Avion will have no choice but to engage in revised terms with IMM, the affordability will be an issue for Avion and therefore in the US, I can envisage a big pharma to join in with a 3 way partnership and Avion getting perhaps only a small percentage. I believe, Avion would still be happy with this outcome in the US.

Just like all the big pharmas, Avion I believe, will also be required to sign a confidential disclosure agreement to access the data room - no exceptions.

NOTE: ITS THE COMBINATION OF THE P140 ASSET + DIAGNOSTIC MODEL WHICH WILL FORM THE NEW BASIS OF A PARTNERSHIP.

No wonder Tim has a super smile during interviews because he and his team know what is coming - with a little patience. In my view, I think he is right and trustworthy when he mentioned in one of the interviews 'listen to what management are saying'

GLA

@roger65

I have not seen the Joint Development Agreement. However, there always is a 'REVERSION CLAUSE' whereby if Avion has not performed its obligations, i.e. spent full $25m then their Option would lapse with full reversion of the US rights coming back to IMM.

Tim's discussion with big pharmas is probably not confined to just the european ones so I would not underestimate Tim for a moment.

I would first get a partnership with a major pharma in europe, get cash rich and finally make a takeover bid for Avion which they cannot refuse!!

GLA

Written to Lisa seeking confirmation

GLA